TheTrials Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 the 925 warm nose and mid level dry punch can still adjust both ways, west and east. These storms always have a last minute surprise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 Steve d-Thus far, as far as observations, nothing is developing to produce a major change in the forecast. We can expect snow, heavy at times, over the higher elevations and rain along the coast. I simply see no support for accumulating heavy snow in the NYC metro with surface temperatures in the upper 30's to mid 40's. Friday October 28, 2011 10:35 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 How did the wind on the nam look Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 1319855974[/url]' post='1074448']the 925 warm nose and mid level dry punch can still adjust both ways, west and east. These storms always have a last minute surprise. All about where the heavy band sets up. Nam has NYC just east of the deform band at hour 21, which brings in that warm tongue due to lack of precip and dynamics. Then crashes again when the CCB pushes east at 24 and 27. That's a minor thing that can change during a storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 Do this for 15 and 18 hours, i think that is where the biggest difference is. Well lets focus on the 500mb heights. You can see the effect of the convection. In addition to cutting off the best moisture transport from the Gulf of Mexico and Lower Atlantic Seaboard, the convection is also providing enough latent heat to rise the heights in the lower shortwave. This in turn weakens the short wave and causes the total phase between the two pieces of energy to be weaker. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 There's a ~925mb "warm nose" that gets up to about Staten Island and NYC at 21z. It's not a typical warm layer, but you can see it on the soundings and 925mb temp/height maps. It makes the entire profile very borderline. The system being weaker has impacts as the 925mb low is closed off but 3dm weaker. This definitely a concern and likely the reason why the early snowfall maps are bad near the coast. Newark sounding at 21 hrs is below. I'm really happy that we're west of NYC for this one. Though I might actually go to High Point, NJ, tomorrow to chase this thing, lol. Then I'd come back during the evening hours for the changeover here! But anyway, although there is that warm-nose at the coast, the coastal areas are actually in a slightly better position than we are with respect to when the 500mb low closes off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEaster27 Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 Well lets focus on the 500mb heights. You can see the effect of the convection. In addition to cutting off the best moisture transport from the Gulf of Mexico and Lower Atlantic Seaboard, the convection is also providing enough latent heat to rise the heights in the lower shortwave. This in turn weakens the short wave and causes the total phase between the two pieces of energy to be weaker. very nice loop, if Rina never existed this storm would have been stronger. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEaster27 Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 How did the wind on the nam look 20-30 mph, maybe gusts into the low 40s out of the North as the storm pulls away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SBUWX23 Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 20-30 mph, maybe gusts into the low 40s out of the North as the storm pulls away. can you support this with a 10m wind plot or is this your guess? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEaster27 Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 can you support this with a 10m wind plot or is this your guess? http://68.226.77.253/text/NAM80km/NAM_Kjfk.txt Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted October 29, 2011 Author Share Posted October 29, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 All about where the heavy band sets up. Nam has NYC just east of the deform band at hour 21, which brings in that warm tongue due to lack of precip and dynamics. Then crashes again when the CCB pushes east at 24 and 27. That's a minor thing that can change during a storm. There probably will be a dry slot and a void between individual bands within the storm. For people on LI, we have to hope that the bands still pack a huge punch when they pivot back east. When the bands initially set up and such, will likely just be cold rain for most of NYC and east. The heights have to crash and everything align before places east really can flip to snow and accumulate. If this were December and we had a similar kind of storm (there wouldn't be a Rina to mess things up then), it would be a case-closed 1-2 feet areawide. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 21 hours is ripping to the north and west of the city and then the city comes back into it at 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SBUWX23 Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 http://68.226.77.253...km/NAM_Kjfk.txt pretty impressive to not have gusts any higher than 40 mph when our sustained winds are close to 30, plus winds above the deck are over 60 mph. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEaster27 Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 even NW NJ is torching on this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted October 29, 2011 Author Share Posted October 29, 2011 even NW NJ is torching on this run. Joking, right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 very nice loop, if Rina never existed this storm would have been stronger. Pretty much... if Rina had actually been a coherent tropical cyclone striking Florida like the GFS had a few days ago, I wonder how much weaker this nor'easter would have been. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYsnowlover Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 There probably will be a dry slot and a void between individual bands within the storm. For people on LI, we have to hope that the bands still pack a huge punch when they pivot back east. When the bands initially set up and such, will likely just be cold rain for most of NYC and east. The heights have to crash and everything align before places east really can flip to snow and accumulate. If this were December and we had a similar kind of storm (there wouldn't be a Rina to mess things up then), it would be a case-closed 1-2 feet areawide. I think that this one will be similar to the sleet/snow/thundersnow storm we had in march of this year. Lots of intense banding. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 Text soundings have 20-25 knot sustained winds. LGA is 37 and drops to 34. JFK is in bad shape up to 950 level. 41 degrees dropping to only 36. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEaster27 Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 pretty impressive to not have gusts any higher than 40 mph when our sustained winds are close to 30, plus winds above the deck are over 60 mph. I said gusts into the low 40s and we have a warm layer inbetween, you expect to mix winds down from 950mb? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SBUWX23 Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 Text soundings have 20-25 knot sustained winds. LGA is 37 and drops to 34. JFK is in bad shape up to 950 level. 41 degrees dropping to only 36. JFK looks fine here for fallign snow. http://vortex.plymouth.edu/cgi-bin/gen_grbsnd.cgi?id=kjfk&mo=nam&pl=skewt&ft=h27&cu=latest&pt=parcel&size=912x650 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TKFJ Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 even NW NJ is torching on this run. I did not know 32-33 degrees was torching, good to know. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYsnowlover Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 JFK looks fine here for fallign snow. http://vortex.plymouth.edu/cgi-bin/gen_grbsnd.cgi?id=kjfk&mo=nam&pl=skewt&ft=h27&cu=latest&pt=parcel&size=912x650 Lol, if KJFK gets 3", they will measure it as 0.50" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted October 29, 2011 Author Share Posted October 29, 2011 Whoever said the 00z NAM is torching for NW NJ obviously didn't bother to look at the map. All of Northern NJ is between 32 and 34 F on the NAM. When looking at the 12km zoom maps on Ewall, you have to look at the thin contours between the 32 F and 40 F line. They are all packed in near the NJ Coast. Nowhere in Northern NJ is at or above 34 F. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 Pretty much... if Rina had actually been a coherent tropical cyclone striking Florida like the GFS had a few days ago, I wonder how much weaker this nor'easter would have been. And if there was less shear to decouple the circulations and make the mid level circulation head towards FL and would have made the whole thing rot over the Yucatan, maybe it would be a massive Hudson Valley cutter? Crazy how these interactions can throw things off kilter. Certainly gives credence to the butterfly-flapping-its-wings theory. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 even NW NJ is torching on this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SBUWX23 Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 I said gusts into the low 40s and we have a warm layer inbetween, you expect to mix winds down from 950mb? Yes I do think there will be mixing of wind down to the surface. I dont see any reason why that wont happen. There is no massive marine layer inversion and when the worst winds come in the evening after 8pm, the temperature profile is cooling right above the surface. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 Lol, if KJFK gets 3", they will measure it as 0.50" Long Island has to hope that the banding develops as advertised, and pivots east, and slows down due to the 500mb closing off. That's how we cash in. Whatever happens before 21z, and maybe even 0z, forget about it-it's rain (obviously this isn't taking into account the developing 50-60 mph winds that will be a beast unto itself). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 JFK looks fine here for fallign snow. http://vortex.plymou...el&size=912x650 which is more liable, skew-t's or text soundings?? Shouldnt they play off of each other? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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