TheTrials Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 The closed 288dm contour being much more compact and further east at 700mb is a great sign. The position of the 700mb low was the thing that I was most worried about, to be honest. Hopefully this run has the right idea. we are on the same page dougie. You could see at 18 hours the 700 was jumping to the coast quick and mid levels were cooling, thats when everyone begins to switch to snow. Its about a 9-12 hour snow storm west longer, east shorter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 Thats one of many advantages though the NE U.S. has, unlike places like Chicago and Detroit where convection in Texas or Louisiana can permanently kill a system, the Gulf Stream and overall thermal gradient can overcome convective issues further south. Perhaps... but that latent heat release will take a while to kick in... it would be better if we already had a good moisture flux pre-event. The radar is not looking terribly impressive right now. Doesnt really look like its much weaker The center pressure is 2-4mb weaker this run at 21z tomorrow and the 850mb heights are about 30dm higher... the model might make up for loss time beyond that period, but overall its a slightly weaker solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 Nam has guaranteed 1" of liquid as frozen for city. What a run.Over 2" of total qpf. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hudsonvalley21 Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD 613 PM EDT FRI OCT 28 2011 DAY 1... ...MID ATLC INTO NEW ENG... MIDLVL SHRTWV DIGG INTO THE OH/TN VLY...WILL TURN NEB TILT AND BEGIN TO PHASE WITH ENERGY PUSHG ACRS THE GULF STS...AND PSBLY ENERGY FM RINA. MDLS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH MASS/MSTR FIELDS...BUT STILL THINK THE MDLS MGT BE UNDER FCSTG THE MAGNITUDE OF MSTR AVBL FOR THIS SYS AS TRPCL MSTR FM RINA GETS QUICKLY PULLED NWD ALNG THE ECST. INITIAL MIDLVL SHRTWV PUSHG INTO THE APLCHNS THIS AFTN WL WEAKEN AND ACCEL NEWD WITH LGT PCPN SWEEPING ACRS THE REGION ERLY TNGT...THEN PCPN SHLD BEGIN TO REDEVELOP TNGT AS THE MID/UPR HGTS BEGIN TO FALL...WITH VRY STG BACKG FLOW THAT WL SUPPORT STG UPR DIFL/DVRG. UPR JET FCSTS SHOW A SPLIT/COUPLET DVLPG LATE TNGT/ERLY SAT THAT WL SIGNIFICANTLY BOOST THE LRG SCALE LIFT OVR THE REGION...WITH ASSOCD ECST CYCLOGENESIS ACCELG SAT MRNG INTO SAT EVE. DEEP LYRD SRLY FLOW IS FCST TO INCRS TNGT THAT WL BRING TRPCL MSTR NWD...WITH VRY STG/ANOMALOUS MSTR FLUX. PW FCSTS ARE NEAR SEASONAL NRMLS...BUT IF MORE MSTR GETS ENTRAINED INTO THE SYS...THIS COULD SIGNIFICANTLY INCRS THE AMTS. PW ANOMALIES OF 2-3 STDS ABV NRML ARE JUST OFF THE SE CST SAT MRNG...SO THIS NEEDS TO BE WATCHED CAREFULLY. MDLS ARE VRY AGREEABLE WITH STG 8H-7H CVRG AND ASSOCD THETA-E ADV THE DVLPS TNGT OVR THE CNTRL/SRN APLCHNS AND EXPANDS/SPREADS NEWD THRU THE PD. GUID PCPN AMTS ARE GNRLY CLOSE...BUT HIER RES GUID IS SHOWG SOME 2-3 INCH AMTS WELL INTO THE COLD AIR ALNG THE SPINE OF THE APLCHNS. THINK THE XPCTD CNVCTN ALNG THE ECST...CLOSER TO THE SFC LOW DVLPMENT...WL TEND TO INHIBIT MSTR FLUX FARTHER W...SO KEPT AMTS DOWN FARTHER INLAND. THE CURRENT RDR SHOWS PCPN SPREADING NEWD AHD OF SCHEDULE AS THE MEAN FLOW REMAINS RATHER FAST ALNG THE ECST. CARRIED THIS THRU THE FCST WITH HVIER PCPN SPRDG NEWD FASTER THAN GUID. 12Z ECMWF JUST ARRIVED AND ALSO SPREAD THE PCPN FASTER TWD THE NE...WITH SLGTLY LWR AMTS INLAND. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
patrick05 Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 I hope this doesnt get deleted but can you guys please include LI too on your analyses, please... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 sim radars have brought that sick deform band back to the east a little, hope that trend continues Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover11 Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 mother of god, some areas N and W of the city are gunna get blasted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jefflaw77 Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 where is earthlight when we need him? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted October 29, 2011 Author Share Posted October 29, 2011 The center pressure is 2-4mb weaker this run at 21z tomorrow... the model might make up for loss time beyond that period, but overall its a slightly weaker solution. Not complaining, it helps keep the tuck northwest farther east and delays it a bit. this keeps the warm air intrusion out of our area for the most part away from the immediate shore. The GFS is ridiculously different from the NAM at this point...24 hours out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted October 29, 2011 Author Share Posted October 29, 2011 where is earthlight when we need him? Just saw the NAM. Electric bath cancel in the immediate suburbs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEaster27 Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 Perhaps... but that latent heat release will take a while to kick in... it would be better if we already had a good moisture flux pre-event. The radar is not looking terribly impressive right now. The center pressure is 2-4mb weaker this run at 21z tomorrow and the 850mb heights are about 30dm higher... the model might make up for loss time beyond that period, but overall its a slightly weaker solution. I would think the vort associated with what was Rina will try to cut off some of the inflow from the tropics, I think we would have been better off if that wasn't even on the map. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 Position is nearly identical... just a slightly weaker signature in the early going. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
simpsonsbuff Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 SUNY MM5 should have some fascinating graphics based on this NAM run... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted October 29, 2011 Author Share Posted October 29, 2011 SUNY MM5 should have some fascinating graphics based on this NAM run... Its last two runs were very similar to this newest 00z NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 I'm liking the mid level features trending south, and really liking the 500mb cutting off as the deform band passes back over NYC/Long Island. I always figured the first half of the storm was lost to rain for western LI anyway, whatever can make the stuff that hits after 0z last longer, the better. Big time fun and games for probably most of Long Island for at least a few hours at that band passes through. North and west obviously gets it the longest, but it should pivot through the whole area, hopefully slowing down as it moves. Someone in Sussex County or the Catskills/NW CT could very sell see 18"+. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 Position is nearly identical... just a slightly weaker signature in the early going. Do this for 15 and 18 hours, i think that is where the biggest difference is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 I would think the vort associated with what was Rina will try to cut off some of the inflow from the tropics, I think we would have been better off if that wasn't even on the map. There is SO MUCH baroclinicity up around here though considering the time of year and amount of heat/moisture to be tapped from the ocean, upper air dynamics and such that I have to think it comes together in time to nail many of us, even people near the coast. This is just about unprecedented. The rules which would apply in January might not now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYsnowlover Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 I'm liking the mid level features trending south, and really liking the 500mb cutting off as the deform band passes back over NYC/Long Island. I always figured the first half of the storm was lost to rain for western LI anyway, whatever can make the stuff that hits after 0z last longer, the better. Big time fun and games for probably most of Long Island for at least a few hours at that band passes through. North and west obviously gets it the longest, but it should pivot through the whole area, hopefully slowing down as it moves. Someone in Sussex County or the Catskills/NW CT could very sell see 18"+. I think that NYC gets 3-6", and western LI gets 2-4" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 This storm is all about where that last band developes. Face it the First half of the storm is rain in EWR, HPN and BDR no matter what the nam says. Then like dec 2002 you get an nasty CCB band. Whoever gets under that band gets the 4-8 jackpot, It could just as easily be southeast of the city. If you have 700+ elevation you'll get hit no matter what but for everyone else it's all about that last band. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 The vortmax track is classic on this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted October 29, 2011 Author Share Posted October 29, 2011 The clown maps are pretty crappy near the coast for whatever reason. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 This storm is all about where that last band developes. Face it the First half of the storm is rain in EWR, HPN and BDR no matter what the nam says. Then like dec 2002 you get an nasty CCB band. Whoever gets under that band gets the 4-8 jackpot, It could just as easily be southeast of the city. If you have 700+ elevation you'll get hit no matter what but for everyone else it's all about that last band. Very true, 4/1/97 was the same....its entirely possible 6 inches could fall at Belmar and nothing at LaGuardia if a mega band did setup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEaster27 Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 There is SO MUCH baroclinicity up around here though considering the time of year and amount of heat/moisture to be tapped from the ocean, upper air dynamics and such that I have to think it comes together in time to nail many of us, even people near the coast. This is just about unprecedented. The rules which would apply in January might not now. even the best dynamics will be hard to overcome the very warm BL. Its not like we have a bomb dropping from 1000mb down into the 980s. Look at the charts from the xmas day event where we went from hvy rain to hvy snow, a much more dynamic system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 925 temps warm a bit at 21-24 hours which hurts NYC western LI for a time, however before then with a littl evap cooling it could be snowing per the sounding, so snow to start, then a mixain/r, then back to heavy snow NYC? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 The clown maps are pretty crappy near the coast for whatever reason. Well then, As Governor Christie said, snow lovers need to get the hell off the beach. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jaguars Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 There is SO MUCH baroclinicity up around here though considering the time of year and amount of heat/moisture to be tapped from the ocean, upper air dynamics and such that I have to think it comes together in time to nail many of us, even people near the coast. This is just about unprecedented. The rules which would apply in January might not now. Yeah, I remember early dec storms and everyone worrying about climo and ocean sst's. This thing is SO early it's almost completely counter-intuitive, the dynamics are so off the charts I don't even know if the models are truly gonna do it justice until it's right on the doorstep. Wish I was still there to see it unfold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 Well then, As Governor Christie said, snow lovers need to get the hell off the beach. its the 925 temps between 21 and 24 when the coast should be ripping. Gotta be a dry slot which stops the cooling process of the column Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted October 29, 2011 Author Share Posted October 29, 2011 There's a ~925mb "warm nose" that gets up to about Staten Island and NYC at 21z. It's not a typical warm layer, but you can see it on the soundings and 925mb temp/height maps. It makes the entire profile very borderline. The system being weaker has impacts as the 925mb low is closed off but 3dm weaker. This definitely a concern and likely the reason why the early snowfall maps are bad near the coast. Newark sounding at 21 hrs is below. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 1319855709[/url]' post='1074415']probably bc the BL is even warmer that it was on the 18z NAM, why is everyone ignoring this? 850 zero line being south of long island means nothing in October. It's because of a dry slot for a couple hours.Look at the details. The position of the dry slot will shift. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYsnowlover Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 The clown maps are pretty crappy near the coast for whatever reason. They always are, I don't think that they know that places like long island exist!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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