TheTrials Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 I think the NAM looks much better at 700, looks like it wants to get it to the coast instead of over PA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 I'm interested to see the wind by me in south Brooklyn also maybe some waves so I can head to rockaway(only 10 min away) haha, what you gonna go surfing? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 Yeah, at 18 hours, the 700 low is getting its act together over southern jersey, not western PA looks like 700 temps begin to respond as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEaster27 Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 1000ish? right. check again. i see all guidance has this dropping rapidly has it comes up the coast. http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appcontroller?prevPage=Model&MainPage=indexℑ=&page=Param&cycle=10%2F28%2F2011+18UTC&rname=SFC-LAYER+PARMS&pname=850_temp_mslp_precip&pdesc=&model=NAM&area=NAMER&cat=MODEL+GUIDANCE&fcast=030&areaDesc=North+America+-+US+Canada+and+northern+Mexico&prevArea=NAMER&currKey=model&returnToModel=&imageSize=M http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appcontroller?prevPage=Model&MainPage=indexℑ=&page=Param&cycle=10%2F28%2F2011+18UTC&rname=SFC-LAYER+PARMS&pname=850_temp_mslp_precip&pdesc=&model=GFS&area=NAMER&cat=MODEL+GUIDANCE&fcast=030&areaDesc=North+America+-+US+Canada+and+northern+Mexico&prevArea=NAMER&currKey=model&returnToModel=&imageSize=M Around 1000mb on the NAM and GFS east of NYC...wasn't the boxing day storm in the upper 960s? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 haha, what you gonna go surfing? Not a bad idea Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 The pressure number isn't necessarily that relevant, it's the rate of deepening and positive vorticity advection that produces the best dynamics. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 1319853590[/url]' post='1074166']Yeah, at 18 hours, the 700 low is getting its act together over southern jersey, not western PA looks like 700 temps begin to respond as well. Yup. Agreed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 haha, what you gonna go surfing? Sunday morning looks great wave wise. Compared to a typical February noreaster this is like a tropical dream, I am all over it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 Wow, RIPPING 21 hours KNYC NICE! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SBUWX23 Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 http://mag.ncep.noaa...el=&imageSize=M http://mag.ncep.noaa...el=&imageSize=M Around 1000mb on the NAM and GFS east of NYC...wasn't the boxing day storm in the upper 960s? The worst winds are expected after this time as the low begins deepening extremely rapidly! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Analog96 Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 The pressure number isn't necessarily that relevant, it's the rate of deepening and positive vorticity advection that produces the best dynamics. That, and the difference in pressure between the low and the high that are affecting your area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 Yeah, at 18 hours, the 700 low is getting its act together over southern jersey, not western PA looks like 700 temps begin to respond as well. Actually what is happening is the the NAM is catching on to the convective elements down in Florida right now that will somewhat rob moisture advection into our system. Thus its cutting back on the intensity of the Baroclinic low ove the Delmarva. Thats going to result in a weaker less amplified solution than the 18z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 NYC switches to heavy snow between 18 hours and 21 hours on the NAM, right when the 700 low gets into good position. It's all about the mid levels Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 Between hr 21-24 the city west gets crushed by the ccb. Real beautiful run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 looks like dry slot get up just to NYC and precip lightens up at 24 hours and the surface warms Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 Actually what is happening is the the NAM is catching on to the convective elements down in Florida right now that will somewhat rob moisture advection into our system. Thus its cutting back on the intensity of the Baroclinic low ove the Delmarva. Thats going to result in a weaker less amplified solution than the 18z run. Thats one of many advantages though the NE U.S. has, unlike places like Chicago and Detroit where convection in Texas or Louisiana can permanently kill a system, the Gulf Stream and overall thermal gradient can overcome convective issues further south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 The 700mb low definitely looks better at 24 hours on the 0z run than it does at 30 hours on the 18z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SBUWX23 Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 Actually what is happening is the the NAM is catching on to the convective elements down in Florida right now that will somewhat rob moisture advection into our system. Thus its cutting back on the intensity of the Baroclinic low ove the Delmarva. Thats going to result in a weaker less amplified solution than the 18z run. Doesnt really look like its much weaker Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 1319853844[/url]' post='1074182']Actually what is happening is the the NAM is catching on to the convective elements down in Florida right now that will somewhat rob moisture advection into our system. Thus its cutting back on the intensity of the Baroclinic low ove the Delmarva. Thats going to result in a weaker less amplified solution than the 18z run. ??Nam is very wet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 Sick deform just to the west of the NYC, MMU getting pounded at 24 hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEaster27 Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 Actually what is happening is the the NAM is catching on to the convective elements down in Florida right now that will somewhat rob moisture advection into our system. Thus its cutting back on the intensity of the Baroclinic low ove the Delmarva. Thats going to result in a weaker less amplified solution than the 18z run. which makes sense, that energy is not just going to rip up the coast its going to be well SE of this storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 city ripping again at 27 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 Comma head coming thru NYC at hour 27. This is a stunning run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 Sick deform just to the west of the NYC, MMU getting pounded at 24 hours Still pounding at hr 27.....hr 30 Nam is 2+ liquid....hr 30 ripping good city east....mod precipitation to the west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
supermeh Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 Sick deform just to the west of the NYC, MMU getting pounded at 24 hours That band, wherever it sets up, will put down some tremendous amounts of snow in a hurry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 There is an inch of frozen liquid on the NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 mid level jet gets the dry nose just to the doorstep of NYC and then it all come back through again. Plenty of qpf for everyone after its cold enough to snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 Ewall regional maps will be eye candy, when out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 The closed 288dm contour being much more compact and further east at 700mb is a great sign. The position of the 700mb low was the thing that I was most worried about, to be honest. Hopefully this run has the right idea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 Hfd-orh area going to get absolutely crushed .....bit Ot...but man Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.