NorEaster27 Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 I remember seeing the vorts phasing for the Boxing Day blizzard over the Miss. valley and knowing that we had a monster headed our way, and I definitely have that same feeling tonight. Whatever percentage is snow for whomever is a bonus, and whatever sticks is more of a bonus-just enjoy this upcoming display of Nature's version of nuclear bombogenesis just off our shores. except that the boxing day blizzard was an actual bomb and this only strengthens to an 1000ish mb low off our coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 In some ways, this storm actually reminds me of the Boxing Day event. Your post is one of those ways. The other is the timing in which the storm is going to be maturing most rapidly. It definitely will, and I think a lot of people will be stunned by it by this time tomorrow. 65F plus water plus all this upper air energy plus cold air off the land plus whatever comes from Rina won't pass without a big time thrashing. Honestly the biggest concern I have for me locally is the wind-60 mph winds plus even a little snow will do a lot of damage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathermedic Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 It definitely will, and I think a lot of people will be stunned by it by this time tomorrow. 65F plus water plus all this upper air energy plus cold air off the land plus whatever comes from Rina won't pass without a big time thrashing. Honestly the biggest concern I have for me locally is the wind-60 mph winds plus even a little snow will do a lot of damage. Same here! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYsnowlover Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 It definitely will, and I think a lot of people will be stunned by it by this time tomorrow. 65F plus water plus all this upper air energy plus cold air off the land plus whatever comes from Rina won't pass without a big time thrashing. Honestly the biggest concern I have for me locally is the wind-60 mph winds plus even a little snow will do a lot of damage. Yea, and remember the snow will stick to the trees first because they are off of the ground, so you could have 2" on the ground, but on the leaves on the trees, you could have 4" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunderdude Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 The wind will be another concern tomorrow and tomorrow night along the heavy wet snow falling. Even if the accumulations is at minimal powerlines and trees will go down. Wind gust especially closer to the coast could exceed 50 mph and even some local spots could appoarch 60 mph in the Eastern part of LI. This storm will be unusually strong and depending when the bombing of the storm takes will determine how quickly the rain will change to snow with the dynamic cooling and how much will fall? Either way this would be something we will probably never see again in our lifetime. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 It definitely will, and I think a lot of people will be stunned by it by this time tomorrow. 65F plus water plus all this upper air energy plus cold air off the land plus whatever comes from Rina won't pass without a big time thrashing. Honestly the biggest concern I have for me locally is the wind-60 mph winds plus even a little snow will do a lot of damage. Yea, I would think March 2010-like winds for you guys. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 It definitely will, and I think a lot of people will be stunned by it by this time tomorrow. 65F plus water plus all this upper air energy plus cold air off the land plus whatever comes from Rina won't pass without a big time thrashing. Honestly the biggest concern I have for me locally is the wind-60 mph winds plus even a little snow will do a lot of damage. Very true except that Irene took off most of the leaves in town. That and Irene did a pretty good job pruning any weak old trees. Also, I think this is shaping up to be a Long Beach gets screwed special, I could see us getting no accumulation while 5 miles inland sees an inch or two. Even with a north wind it still has to blow across the 60 degree bay. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 Yea, I would think March 2010-like winds for you guys. That would probably be almost devastating. We had 80 mph wind gusts for at least 2 hours and strong 60 or so mph gusts for at least 6 hours. We had tree branches/poles/lines littered all over the place, and that was with bare trees and all rain. I can't imagine what that would do with leaved trees and snow on them. I don't think it's that bad but I could see 60 mph gusts for a time near the immediate coast. Hopefully Irene and last winter took out all the really weak trees. Not having power for 2 days after Irene sucked. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 I think all this doom and gloom is probably far too exaggerated, most events never live up to their destructive potential. Irene, although caused major headaches, definitely didn't live up to its destructive potential. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 The surprising thing so far on this event is the normal model QPF back off has not happened. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 Very true except that Irene took off most of the leaves in town. That and Irene did a pretty good job pruning any weak old trees. Also, I think this is shaping up to be a Long Beach gets screwed special, I could see us getting no accumulation while 5 miles inland sees an inch or two. Even with a north wind it still has to blow across the 60 degree bay. I doubt Reynolds Channel would have that much or any impact with a dynamic system like this. It's how long-a half mile across? The East River is thicker. We're lucky we have 40 miles of land behind us on a N or NE wind. I think we have a few hours of real action with snow tomorrow night. That deformation band, on any model, looks like it means serious business. How much it sticks is another question. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYsnowlover Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 That would probably be almost devastating. We had 80 mph wind gusts for at least 2 hours and strong 60 or so mph gusts for at least 6 hours. We had tree branches/poles/lines littered all over the place, and that was with bare trees and all rain. I can't imagine what that would do with leaved trees and snow on them. I don't think it's that bad but I could see 60 mph gusts for a time near the immediate coast. Hopefully Irene and last winter took out all the really weak trees. Not having power for 2 days after Irene sucked. I had no power for 7 days after both. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 First glance at srefs are that they are colder and more east then their previous couple runs. Not too many members leaning far west anymore. Good amount of precip on them also. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Euripides Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 Very true except that Irene took off most of the leaves in town. That and Irene did a pretty good job pruning any weak old trees. While Irene did a good job pruning old trees. She also weakened some healthy trees, they would be the ones coming down in either this or the next event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 First glance at srefs are that they are colder and more east then their previous couple runs. i agree. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 First glance at srefs are that they are colder and more east then their previous couple runs. Not too many members leaning far west anymore. Good amount of precip on them also. I cant view them directly but per New England thread they are little changed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 The surprising thing so far on this event is the normal model QPF back off has not happened. yup. euro has not budged on qpf, nam has been consistent with 2" or more amounts and the last gfs run went up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 1319852557[/url]' post='1074101']I cant view them directly but per New England thread they are little changed. The surface low is tightly clustered to the east with fewer leaning members. 850 line also never gets above south shore of LI, like previous runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 I cant view them directly but per New England thread they are little changed. 850's have cooled, as have 2m temps also the left leaning members have backed away from the coast I'm with AG3 on this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 The surprising thing so far on this event is the normal model QPF back off has not happened. Miller A with a tropical feed, not gonna back off and also, its a top year for rainfall, wouldn't expect a dry storm now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 I had no power for 7 days after both. Windwise Irene was bad but not at the level the 3/13/10 storm was for here. That was just incredible, and it lasted for many hours-all afternoon and into the night. We're lucky the water didn't come up, otherwise we would have been really badly hit. I've never seen so many downed trees, missing shingles, and downed power lines, even damaged cars and roofs. It was an amazing scene, and we didn't fully clean up for weeks. And again, that was with bare trees and no snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 850's have cooled, as have 2m temps also the left leaning members have backed away from the coast I'm with AG3 on this You guys can see them, and I cant so Ill defer but per mets in NE (the low is little chnaged (maybe even a touch west) but they do say a touch cooler (more compact isotherms on the NW side). In otehr words more intense with a tighter gradient. Either way does not look worse or any big change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 You guys can see them, and I cant so Ill defer but per mets in NE (the low is little chnaged (maybe even a touch west) but they do say a touch cooler (more compact isotherms on the NW side). In otehr words more intense with a tighter gradient. Either way does not look worse or any big change. Im less concerned about slp and more concerned about mid levels. NAM is running, we will know more in less than 20 mins. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SBUWX23 Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 except that the boxing day blizzard was an actual bomb and this only strengthens to an 1000ish mb low off our coast. 1000ish? right. check again. i see all guidance has this dropping rapidly has it comes up the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 While Irene did a good job pruning old trees. She also weakened some healthy trees, they would be the ones coming down in either this or the next event. Thats true also, we shall see. Here though the salt in the onshore flow with Irene browned and killed a good amount of the leaves, By my parents place in Wantagh where the salt damage was less pronounced and there is a better chance of accumulation it could be a different story. The giant silver maple in their back yard is in full green leaf any snow and its going to be a big issue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 old RSM for kicks before NAM comes out, this is not a pretty picture. Take it for the very little its worth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYsnowlover Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 Windwise Irene was bad but not at the level the 3/13/10 storm was for here. That was just incredible, and it lasted for many hours-all afternoon and into the night. We're lucky the water didn't come up, otherwise we would have been really badly hit. I've never seen so many downed trees, missing shingles, and downed power lines, even damaged cars and roofs. It was an amazing scene, and we didn't fully clean up for weeks. And again, that was with bare trees and no snow. This one could raise our power bills yet again!! It could also cause our very frail LIRR to have all service east of Jamica suspended. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
supermeh Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 NAM looks slightly less amped...might tick east a tad Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 Miller A with a tropical feed, not gonna back off and also, its a top year for rainfall, wouldn't expect a dry storm now Yep. Whatever falls, we are going to get a LOT of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 I'm interested to see the wind by me in south Brooklyn also maybe some waves so I can head to rockaway(only 10 min away) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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