Nikolai Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 I think the time of year and massive amount of energy available just off-shore (thermal gradient ftw) should ensure that the low develops very rapidly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 its not the precip rates that make the model warmer, its the position/development of the mid-level lows on the gfs . Its simply not there till the very end of the storm and thats when everyone switches over and probably accumulates as a true CCB takes over. True, but the NAM will also be more "sensitive" to mesoscale features such as dynamic cooling, all-else (including precip) being equal. What's good is that the timing of the storm has slightly slowed. Even if the changeover doesn't occur until 0z, most of us can still pick up a quick several inches of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SBUWX23 Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 What model is this? Thats no model, thats the TAF(terminal aerodrome forecast) for JFK Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 Thats no model, thats the TAF(terminal aerodrome forecast) for JFK What times it for Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 True, but the NAM will also be more "sensitive" to mesoscale features such as dynamic cooling, all-else (including precip) being equal. What's good is that the timing of the storm has slightly slowed. Even if the changeover doesn't occur until 0z, most of us can still pick up a quick several inches of snow. Per 18z GFS clownmaps 6"+ from Rt.78 N in NJ, NYC right on line but looks like 2-4" in the city. Once into Morris County/Warren/Passaic/NW Bergen & NW 10"+. GFS aint too shabby... vs 12z it is slightly more snow in NE NJ, and roughly the same elsewhere. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 I think the time of year and massive amount of energy available just off-shore (thermal gradient ftw) should ensure that the low develops very rapidly. Definitely. This is the one advantageous thing about being in October - the baroclinic zone is strong. Plus, the low will be at its most rapid rate of development at our latitudes. Meaning, there will be the most amount of upper level divergence compared to the surface convergence, which greatly favors upward vertical motion to begin with. I suspect that the highest Omega values in the snowgrowth regions will occur near our latitudes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 1319847815[/url]' post='1073801']Per 18z GFS clownmaps 6"+ from Rt.78 N in NJ, NYC right on line but looks like 2-4" in the city. Once into Morris County/Warren/Passaic/NW Bergen & NW 10"+. GFS aint too shabby... vs 12z it is slightly more snow in NE NJ, and roughly the same elsewhere. Which clown map? Raleigh is a lot more then that for NYC. 6"+ easy for NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEaster27 Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 Many areas tomorrow can have stronger wind gust compared to Irene, another thing being over looked I doubt many see winds to 65mph like we had in Irene, maybe some gusts in the 40s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 Following Steve ds tweets he's reallly against the snow idea for most of us Steve-Putting final touches for video now. In the end, I think you'll be wondering what some people are doing out there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 man radar presentation looks awesome, hopefull the area of snow in WV works NE over all of us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SBUWX23 Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 What times it for 00Z Sunday looks like Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 I doubt many see winds to 65mph like we had in Irene, maybe some gusts in the 40s. Upton has 5boros gust to 55 and then 60 on long island, many areas didn't get near 65 I just looked up wind reports. After reading point forecast and watches/advisorys it will be close and after 3/10/10 and Irene never know winds can be much higher or lower Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 Which clown map? Raleigh is a lot more then that for NYC. 6"+ easy for NYC. WinterCast. Green/Gray border is 6" line Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEaster27 Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 I'd be really surprised if that happens, since temps are already falling through the mid 40s, and dews are in the 20s. I could see 37-40 for a while but not 40s. There's also a strong northerly flow coming in from off the colder land. I just don't see how it can be that warm with these parameters in place. JFK is 47/25, we aren't going much lower than the low 40s for a low tonight with the clouds now in place. Low 40s during the day tomorrow looks like a pretty sure bet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted October 29, 2011 Author Share Posted October 29, 2011 complete insanity. have never seen this type of modeled 800-600 hpa frontogenic forcing before. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted October 29, 2011 Author Share Posted October 29, 2011 there are 40 microbars of lift in the snow growth region in some spots on the bufkit. absolutely sick. the changeover to snow is going to be unbelievable to watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 there are 40 microbars of lift in the snow growth region in some spots on the bufkit. absolutely sick. the changeover to snow is going to be unbelievable to watch. I can't wait Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEaster27 Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 that mositure should stay seperate from our storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jjvesnow Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 that mositure should stay seperate from our storm. Some of it already is so you are wrong. Geez you have been a debbie downer all day. http://www.goes.noaa...LOOPS/ecwv.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover11 Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 not all of it. Geez you have been a debbie downer all day. http://www.goes.noaa...LOOPS/ecwv.html He always is, how he is still allowed to post garbo 24/7 is amazing, he needs a timeout. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 there are 40 microbars of lift in the snow growth region in some spots on the bufkit. absolutely sick. the changeover to snow is going to be unbelievable to watch. look again, some approach and are at 50 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 When's next model out? I hate this waiting sref right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
XtremeWx Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 1319849279[/url]' post='1073907']When's next model out? I hate this waiting sref right? Srefs should be coming out in about 30min and then nam at about 9:45. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 srefs 9:30 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wkd Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 Wow, what a storm coming, and historical, actually biblical at that! GFS is out to lunch, lower resolution is just killing this model right now, waters out by the bench mark are tropical, this vort max will seek that energy and act on the baroclinic ribbon of love and thrive. CCB should be epic from jersey into the lower hudson valley and nw ct, then traverse east with time, delivering dendritical deliciousness from clifton to crown heights. A deepening low se of long island with ne then due north winds, dynamics to boot and big time, 850 temps will surrender to the surface, I can envision an epic band ala 96 over the tri state, except its paste, trees down, coastal flooding, winds gusting 50++. If you love weather, you gotta love this, a new anus will be ripped from east of ACY south of ISP and se of ACK, enjoy this storm guys, this has the potential to be a once in 500 year event. These are uncharted waters, its late October, enjoy the majesty of mother nature, I am pretty certain this will never happen again in our lifetime, or future generations for that matter. Its 10/28...........its almost too good to true, believe! Nice!! If you don't write for a living, you should think about it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 there are 40 microbars of lift in the snow growth region in some spots on the bufkit. absolutely sick. the changeover to snow is going to be unbelievable to watch. we had that for our GHD blizzard Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 http://www.ssec.wisc.edu/data/east/animation/goeseastwv.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 I remember seeing the vorts phasing for the Boxing Day blizzard over the Miss. valley and knowing that we had a monster headed our way, and I definitely have that same feeling tonight. Whatever percentage is snow for whomever is a bonus, and whatever sticks is more of a bonus-just enjoy this upcoming display of Nature's version of nuclear bombogenesis just off our shores. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 I remember seeing the vorts phasing for the Boxing Day blizzard over the Miss. valley and knowing that we had a monster headed our way, and I definitely have that same feeling tonight. Whatever percentage is snow for whomever is a bonus, and whatever sticks is more of a bonus-just enjoy this upcoming display of Nature's version of nuclear bombogenesis just off our shores. In some ways, this storm actually reminds me of the Boxing Day event. Your post is one of those ways. The other is the timing in which the storm is going to be maturing most rapidly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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