NorthShoreWx Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Yeah thats what i meant to get to. Thickness is a function of temperature and my point was that for the beginning of the storm, most places are barely above 540, so its not like were torching at the midlevels We are on the same page. 540 is a good rule of thumb, but I've seen it snow with higher thickness values and rain with lower values. Same goes for the 850 temps...a good rule of thumb but not definitive. This time, even out here on central LI, just about all of the critical thickesses are on the snow side of the fence. Its just the boundary conditions that will probably kill us. Its tough when you are surrounded by 60 degree water. Even the trees know it...thats why the leaves hang on longer here. Still, I'm kind of excited about tomorrow night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 I MADE THE FOLLOWING POST ON MY WEATHER BLOG ON THE EVENING OF OCTOBER 17th AND FOLLOWED UP ON THE POSSIBILITY EVERY SINGLE DAY! NO JOKE. First Snowstorm for Northwest NJ next Friday the 28th? I have not mentioned it yet but for the past three days now the medium-range American model has been noticing the possibility of the first snowstorm for Northwest New Jersey for next Friday the 28th. I wanted to wait to see if a pattern was developing because it is a long way out, now 11 days away, but after the latest run of the Medium-Range American model that just came out, I can no longer hold back. The American model goes out to 16 days and since Saturday (about day 13), it has at one time or other on various model runs produced a Nor’easter for our area. What I look for with situations like this, so far in advance of a storm, is a pattern of behavior by the model. What intrigues me is that it is producing a storm in nearly the exact same location at about the same time on different model runs and we continue to get closer in time to the storm. I have absolutely seen the medium-range American model notice the potential for a large Nor’easter along the East Coast as far out as 13 days on many occasions before. Does it mean it will happen? Absolutely not. It can absolutely be a figment of the model’s imagination. I have seen far more computer generated snowstorms that do not happen at this time range than do, but again, for the previously mentioned reasons, I am now intrigued by this possibility and wanted to mention it to you. The European model is a far superior model in the shorter range, but it only goes out to 10 days in advance so it has been of little use so far, however it should be noted that on the latest run it does now show the potential for a strong Nor’easter along the East Coast next Thursday. The European model run however does not bring the cold air in fast enough and makes it just a heavy rain event for the East Coast. The American model brings a cold front through here on Wednesday of next week and much colder air starting next Thursday, and likely, cold enough for snow in Northwest New Jersey next Friday as the storm starts to intensify near the Delmarva Peninsula (the peninsula where Delaware, Maryland and Virginia all meet). The high temperature would likely only be in the 30’s in Northwest New Jersey with snow next Friday if the American model is correct, and temperatures dropping into the 20’s next Friday night the 28th. Snow showers and flurries would occur all weekend long on the 29th and 30th as well with strong winds and highs only in the 30’s all weekend as the storm intensifies and stalls over New England. Keep in mind that this could all be a figment of the American model’s imagination. On the other hand, it could all become a reality. Only time will tell, and if by any chance it does happen, you can say you heard it here first. Posted by The Edge at 7:03 PM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted October 28, 2011 Author Share Posted October 28, 2011 With the SREF and GFS trending warmer, and the Euro and NAM remaining cooler, something's got to give. We're 24 hr out now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Wrf future cast http://hp6.wright-weather.com/wrf_nmmeast-radar-loop_1hour.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 1319844127[/url]' post='1073615']With the SREF and GFS trending warmer, and the Euro and NAM remaining cooler, something's got to give. We're 24 hr out now. We are only 12 hours out from the storm now. And maybe 18 hours from the "snow" part. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris L Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 We are only 12 hours out from the storm now. Yes, but the main show is at night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 1319844373[/url]' post='1073621']Yes, but the main show is at night. Not really. Heaviest precip is set to hit us from 18z tomorrow to 6z Sunday.So 2pm through 2am tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nikolai Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Not really. Heaviest precip is set to hit us from 18z tomorrow to 6z Sunday.So 2pm through 2am tomorrow. I would bet we start mixing around 4PM, changeover around 5PM, and start accumulating around 7PM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted October 28, 2011 Author Share Posted October 28, 2011 Wrf future cast http://hp6.wright-weather.com/wrf_nmmeast-radar-loop_1hour.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris L Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Is anyone concenred about the thermal profiles on the NAM which tends to run cold? We have seen this before last winter season; where NAM was a bit too cold... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 With the SREF and GFS trending warmer, and the Euro and NAM remaining cooler, something's got to give. We're 24 hr out now. I'm coming home... so it'll rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Steve d still don't think any accumulation below 500 feet, & all rain a long the coast. Says he's gonna give reason on why soon I am in more agreement with DT, he shows 1-3 for NYC and W LI. I think Steve D could very well be correct for the coast but he is likely too low for the area where DT has 3-6 in the B zone. http://www.wxrisk.com/2011/10/possible-big-east-low-oct-28-29/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Multiple reports from friends on FB that it is snowing at valley floor elevations (~800-1200 ft) in Virginia. It is coming folks. It snowed right down to Boston Harbor last night with a weak overrunning type event, and temps near 35. I don't think it will be so hard to do here at night under a dynamic coastal low. And I still don't buy the GFS thermal profile-it's pretty much an outlier there. Nam and Euro are the way to go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 1319845155[/url]' post='1073659']It snowed right down to Boston Harbor last night with a weak overrunning type event, and temps near 35. I don't think it will be so hard to do here at night under a dynamic coastal low. And I still don't buy the GFS thermal profile-it's pretty much an outlier there. Nam and Euro are the way to go. People are looking too much at the 540 line. The rain/snow line can be at a higher thickness then that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 I'm coming home... so it'll rain Dude, if this a long winter between last winter and this one youll be spending thousands on plane tickets! Besides I thought your TTN cutoff for a fly home was like 6-10" or something? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 I definitely agree with Forky that the 540 line is one of the most overrated tools out there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 1319845469[/url]' post='1073670']I definitely agree with Forky that the 540 line is one of the most overrated tools out there. I remember during the snowicane in 2010, people were obsessed with the 540 line also. Forky came in and told us which thickness would be rain line and he was dead right. I think it was 545 line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 The GEFS is an absolute torch at 925mb, btw. +4C in NYC valid 18z tomorrow. The 0C line is in NW Jersey. This is why its 1000-500mb thickness values are so high, because it shows that strong warmth from 925mb down to the surface. A model that has more precipitation and more dynamic cooling will have the 925mb and lower temperatures be much cooler, and thus the 1000-500mb thickness values will be much lower, too. As far as the thermal profiles are concerned, I'd do a 70/30 NAM/GFS blend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Dude, if this a long winter between last winter and this one youll be spending thousands on plane tickets! Besides I thought your TTN cutoff for a fly home was like 6-10" or something? I'm expecting 2-4" at TTN, and anything above 2.5 inches would be historic (greatest October snowfall ever). Can't miss that. After this one its back to normal (in fact, probably over a foot). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 I remember during the snowicane in 2010, people were obsessed with the 540 line also. Forky came in and told us which thickness would be rain line and he was dead right. I think it was 545 line. This might be a similar evolution to that storm, in that LI rains for much of the day before flipping over slowly west to east by dark. The most fun for Nassau County looks to be from 7pm to 1am. Sometimes these flip to snow earlier than progged too if the dynamics are good-I know 2/25/10 changed over to S+ in Nassau County hours earlier than it was supposed to. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 I'm expecting 2-4" at TTN, and anything above 2.5 inches would be historic (greatest October snowfall ever). Can't miss that. After this one its back to normal (in fact, probably over a foot). Also, I made no special trips last winter. The last snow chase was February 2010. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 The GEFS is an absolute torch at 925mb, btw. +4C in NYC valid 18z tomorrow. The 0C line is in NW Jersey. This is why its 1000-500mb thickness values are so high, because it shows that strong warmth from 925mb down to the surface. A model that has more precipitation and more dynamic cooling will have the 925mb and lower temperatures be much cooler, and thus the 1000-500mb thickness values will be much lower, too. As far as the thermal profiles are concerned, I'd do a 70/30 NAM/GFS blend. I'd be really surprised if that happens, since temps are already falling through the mid 40s, and dews are in the 20s. I could see 37-40 for a while but not 40s. There's also a strong northerly flow coming in from off the colder land. I just don't see how it can be that warm with these parameters in place. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Also, I made no special trips last winter. The last snow chase was February 2010. which is why the storms actually reached CNJ+ last year. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Also, I made no special trips last winter. The last snow chase was February 2010. True, the blizzard wasnt that spectacular in TTN, although you missed a good one in late January. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 True, the blizzard wasnt that spectacular in TTN, although you missed a good one in late January. I regretted missing that late Jan one, though I didn't expect it to be as great as it was (I think I had 4-8" until the morning surprise became fully evident, by which time there was no way I could've gotten home in time). Plus I was working. However, the one I still regret missing the most, by far, was February 9-10, 2010. That one was really awesome and I was home just a day and a half before it started for the February 5-6 storm. If I had known just how much I'd have regretted missing that, I'd have probably stayed and bribed someone heavily to take the work shifts I had to go back for. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 TAF KJFK 282336Z 2900/3006 03008KT P6SM OVC150 FM290900 04010KT P6SM OVC050 FM291200 05012G20KT P6SM OVC050 FM291500 06015G24KT P6SM -RA OVC025 FM291800 03022G30KT 2SM RA BR OVC008 FM292200 02023G32KT 1/2SM SNRA FG VV003 FM300000 36030G45KT 1/4SM +SN FZFG VV002 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 Wow, what a storm coming, and historical, actually biblical at that! GFS is out to lunch, lower resolution is just killing this model right now, waters out by the bench mark are tropical, this vort max will seek that energy and act on the baroclinic ribbon of love and thrive. CCB should be epic from jersey into the lower hudson valley and nw ct, then traverse east with time, delivering dendritical deliciousness from clifton to crown heights. A deepening low se of long island with ne then due north winds, dynamics to boot and big time, 850 temps will surrender to the surface, I can envision an epic band ala 96 over the tri state, except its paste, trees down, coastal flooding, winds gusting 50++. If you love weather, you gotta love this, a new anus will be ripped from east of ACY south of ISP and se of ACK, enjoy this storm guys, this has the potential to be a once in 500 year event. These are uncharted waters, its late October, enjoy the majesty of mother nature, I am pretty certain this will never happen again in our lifetime, or future generations for that matter. Its 10/28...........its almost too good to true, believe! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 The GEFS is an absolute torch at 925mb, btw. +4C in NYC valid 18z tomorrow. The 0C line is in NW Jersey. This is why its 1000-500mb thickness values are so high, because it shows that strong warmth from 925mb down to the surface. A model that has more precipitation and more dynamic cooling will have the 925mb and lower temperatures be much cooler, and thus the 1000-500mb thickness values will be much lower, too. As far as the thermal profiles are concerned, I'd do a 70/30 NAM/GFS blend. its not the precip rates that make the model warmer, its the position/development of the mid-level lows on the gfs . Its simply not there till the very end of the storm and thats when everyone switches over and probably accumulates as a true CCB takes over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 Many areas tomorrow can have stronger wind gust compared to Irene, another thing being over looked Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 TAF KJFK 282336Z 2900/3006 03008KT P6SM OVC150 FM290900 04010KT P6SM OVC050 FM291200 05012G20KT P6SM OVC050 FM291500 06015G24KT P6SM -RA OVC025 FM291800 03022G30KT 2SM RA BR OVC008 FM292200 02023G32KT 1/2SM SNRA FG VV003 FM300000 36030G45KT 1/4SM +SN FZFG VV002 What model is this? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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