Nikolai Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 It will be soon; we're OVC here in the PHL area. well that just means we have that little extra amount of time to radiate more than you Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 well that just means we have that little extra amount of time to radiate more than you and its doing so quickly! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 I prefer rain to snow then snow to rain although the bust potential is greater in the former. Who wants to see beautiful snowfall will a nice blanket on the ground, trees, and streets turn into a dreary mess where it all disappears in a couple hours. At least with rain to snow, you get the mess first and see the beauty of snow afterward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEaster27 Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 18z GFS during the time of best dynamics looks warm from interstate 287 south and east. We haven't seen a storm where 287 was the classic rain / snow dividing line in some time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Highest total in october in NYC since data was being kept in the 1800's is 0.8" i think someone said..0.8!!! this could be a 150 year storm. Anyone from NYC on west and nw will likely see plastering snow once the sun goes down tomorrow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwinter23 Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 The 18Z nam BUFKIT overview for Allentown is probably the most spectacular absurdity I've ever seen... -70 omegas, in the snow growth zone, with plenty of elevated CAPE...Zone Omega is 38" haha! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 NYC news stations really down playing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted October 28, 2011 Author Share Posted October 28, 2011 look at the 10m winds on the nam during heavy snow. 25 kt winds extending into New Jersey and 30 kts on the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Multiple reports from friends on FB that it is snowing at valley floor elevations (~800-1200 ft) in Virginia. It is coming folks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof09 Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 NYC news stations really down playing news stations around nyc always do. its like they dont know how or refuse to read the current forecast models lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HailMan06 Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 18z GFS during the time of best dynamics looks warm from interstate 287 south and east. We haven't seen a storm where 287 was the classic rain / snow dividing line in some time. Appears the slp is a bit weaker compared to the earlier runs. Weaker low pressure leading to less dynamic cooling apparently. My question is why is the GFS weakening the storm. GFS hinting on something other models don't see? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nikolai Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Multiple reports from friends on FB that it is snowing at valley floor elevations (~800-1200 ft) in Virginia. It is coming folks. dynamics will not always overcome a marginal BL, but this is a case where I think they most definitely will... we have seen many similar instances (just not in october) the past two winters, and this is no different. a BL temp of 34-35 is irrelevant if you're getting very heavy QPF/intense dynamics above. I am so freakin' excited! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 dynamics will not always overcome a marginal BL, but this is a case where I think they most definitely will... we have seen many similar instances (just not in october) the past two winters, and this is no different. a BL temp of 34-35 is irrelevant if you're getting very heavy QPF coupled with unstable dynamics above. I am so freakin' excited! Me too. This is unreal. Always cool to be a part of history. This one is going in the books for the mid-Atlantic and Northeast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEaster27 Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 If anyone missed Lee's forecast on channel 7: http://abclocal.go.com/wabc/story?section=weather/forecast&id=7909127 I think he is spot on with a coating to a slusly inch at worst for NYC and the 3 inch lines runs from 287 NW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KEITH L.I Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 If anyone missed Lee's forecast on channel 7: http://abclocal.go.c...cast&id=7909127 I think he is spot on with a coating to a slusly inch at worst for NYC and the 3 inch lines runs from 287 NW. slushy inch would still be historic for Oct 29th Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 18Z RGEM Total Snow. Population wise it says Congrats 1%. Too bad 99% Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nikolai Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 if the models are correct and we see sustained winds of ~35mph with gusts upwards of 50, this could do significantly more damage than Irene did in terms of power outages... although the city itself should be fine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 I'm sorry, this is just ridiculous for Oct 28. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 The GFS takes longer for the changeover since it's LLJ takes longer than the NAM to switch to more a more northerly direction. But even the GFS gets the snow down to the coast at night though hitting the lower range of accumulation potential on the grass. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunderdude Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Regardless of what the models say now at this point the fact that NYC could easily have an inch or more snow will make history. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Right around the time the UL is closing off.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 If anyone missed Lee's forecast on channel 7: http://abclocal.go.com/wabc/story?section=weather/forecast&id=7909127 I think he is spot on with a coating to a slusly inch at worst for NYC and the 3 inch lines runs from 287 NW. He actually said a coating to a slushy inch or two. He's allowing for the possibility of 2 inches in NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover11 Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 a little OT but im looking at webcams in VA and it just started to snow and they have a good dusting on the grass/trees already. Crazy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 This is where the upgraded and improved NAM and better high res models make forecasting these events much easier than 10 years ago or more. The 12/25/02 storm many have mentioned the only model that did pick up on heavy back end banding was the GFS, however; the GFS of course showed a boundary layer that was too mild. The then ETA did not pick up on anything nor do many of the other global models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 This is where the upgraded and improved NAM and better high res models make forecasting these events much easier than 10 years ago or more. The 12/25/02 storm many have mentioned the only model that did pick up on heavy back end banding was the GFS, however; the GFS of course showed a boundary layer that was too mild. The then ETA did not pick up on anything nor do many of the other global models. Seems like the 18z GFS after a good amount of rain on the front end of the system, drops 1-1.2" QPF mostly as wet snow/snow over N/C NJ and NYC. If ratios are in the 5:1 vicinity, 3-6" (maybe a touch more some areas) per this run seems doable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Steve d still don't think any accumulation below 500 feet, & all rain a long the coast. Says he's gonna give reason on why soon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted October 28, 2011 Author Share Posted October 28, 2011 18z gefs are awful to say the least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nikolai Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Steve d still don't think any accumulation below 500 feet, & all rain a long the coast. Says he's gonna give reason on why soon still waiting on his reasoning for going 8-12" for I-95 on VD 2007 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEaster27 Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 18z gefs are awful to say the least. so was the 18z op of the GFS but my post was deleted when I said it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 still waiting on his reasoning for going 8-12" for I-95 on VD 2007 Haha, I'll give it to Steve though he is right a lot of times but also is wrong at times to, well see Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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