earthlight Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 euro within in the next half hour. good luck to all. For reference purposes: Winter Precip Types by Thickness Values What Causes Thundersnow Wet Bulb Calculations General Winter Precipitation Forecasting Relationship between Jet Streak and Vorticity Generation Snow Sounding Cold Rain Sounding Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alpha5 Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Trials has been dancing since noon, this better be good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 NYC needs to beat 0.8in for the new monthly record. It would be the third since Feb 2010. http://www.erh.noaa.gov/okx/climate/records/snowiestmonths.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfsheepsheadbay Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 NYC needs to beat 0.8in for the new monthly record. It would be the third since Feb 2010. http://www.erh.noaa....iestmonths.html Will happen easily. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 NYC needs to beat 0.8in for the new monthly record. It would be the third since Feb 2010. http://www.erh.noaa.gov/okx/climate/records/snowiestmonths.html I'd be surprised if this isn't easily broken. I Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted October 28, 2011 Author Share Posted October 28, 2011 Trials has been dancing since noon, this better be good Unless the euro throws him into an electric bath Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 I'd be surprised if this isn't easily broken. I Nothing is set in stone. To tell you the truth I won't believe that it will snow until it's falling from the sky and sticking on the ground. That's how fantastic the situation at hand is. The Euro needs to hold serve to bring some confidence. We'll find out soon enough. Btw can't believe Earthlight has needed to create 3 threads each one containing 50 pages for a storm in October. Simply incredible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Nothing is set in stone. To tell you the truth I won't believe that it will snow until it's falling from the sky and sticking on the ground. That's how fantastic the situation at hand is. The Euro needs to hold serve to bring some confidence. We'll find out soon enough. Btw can't believe Earthlight has needed to create 3 threads each one containing 50 pages for a storm in October. Simply incredible. Given that this is an event you can expect here maybe once per century, it's incredible to say the least. Probably more rare than a cat 2/3 hurricane buzzsawing through Long Island. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Albany Discussion sounding serious up that way: WE ARE NOT GOING TO TAKE ANY CHANCES WITH THIS STORM. THERE COULD BE A MAJOR SOCIETAL IMPACT ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF THE FCST AREA. LEAVES ARE ON THE TREES IN THE VALLEYS /ESPECIALLY FROM THE CAPITAL DISTRICT SOUTH/...AND ACROSS SOME OF THE HILLS. 3 TO 6 INCHES OF HEAVY WET SNOW COULD BE VERY PERILOUS BRINGING DOWN NUMEROUS LIMBS AND POWER LINES. WE HAVE TRIED TO EMPHASIZE THIS IN THE WATCH STATEMENT ! POTENTIALLY...THERE COULD BE NUMEROUS POWER OUTAGES. DESPITE NOT HITTING THE 7 INCH OR GREATER CRITERIA...WE FEEL THIS WATCH IS NECESSARY DUE TO THE POTENTIAL SOCIETAL IMPACT. THE BEST LOW AND MID LEVEL FGEN ON THE NAM/GFS MAY IMPACT THE CAPITAL REGION SOUTH AND EAST SAT PM/SAT NIGHT WITH SNOW RATES EXCEEDING 1 INCH AN HOUR. WE ALSO STARTED THE WATCH EARLIER AT NOONTIME EVERYWHERE. THERE ARE SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH ONSET OF THE PCPN WITH THE GFS A LITTLE FASTER THAN THE NAM. BOTTOM LINE...ANY RAIN/SNOW MIX SHOULD QUICKLY TURN TO SNOW BASED ON THE WET BULB/EVAPORATIVE COOLING. THE NAM TRIES TO HANG ONTO TO THE DRY WEDGE A LITTLE LONGER WITH THE RETREATING COLD CANADIAN ANTICYCLONE ACROSS QUEBEC. THE LOW LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE QUICKLY MOVES TOWARDS THE SRN PERIPHERY OF THE FCST AREA IN THE MORNING INCREASING THE UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION FOR THE RAIN/SNOW MIX TO START. THE TRACK OF COASTAL LOW GOES FROM NEAR THE DELMARVA REGION AT 1800 UTC...TO JUST EAST OF CAPE COD AT 0600 UTC/SUN. THE SFC WAVE GOES THROUGH RAPID CYCLOGENESIS DURING THIS STRETCH WITH THE 06Z/GFS HAVING A 988 HPA LOW NEAR CAPE COD...18 HRS EARLIER WE HAVE A 1008 HPA LOW NEAR HATTERAS ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted October 28, 2011 Author Share Posted October 28, 2011 Euro a hair more amplified on the EC but a hair less deep with the trough. Nothing difinitive through 18 hr Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alpha5 Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Albany Discussion sounding serious up that way: WE ARE NOT GOING TO TAKE ANY CHANCES WITH THIS STORM. THERE COULD BE A MAJOR SOCIETAL IMPACT ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF THE FCST AREA. LEAVES ARE ON THE TREES IN THE VALLEYS /ESPECIALLY FROM THE CAPITAL DISTRICT SOUTH/...AND ACROSS SOME OF THE HILLS. 3 TO 6 INCHES OF HEAVY WET SNOW COULD BE VERY PERILOUS BRINGING DOWN NUMEROUS LIMBS AND POWER LINES. WE HAVE TRIED TO EMPHASIZE THIS IN THE WATCH STATEMENT ! POTENTIALLY...THERE COULD BE NUMEROUS POWER OUTAGES. DESPITE NOT HITTING THE 7 INCH OR GREATER CRITERIA...WE FEEL THIS WATCH IS NECESSARY DUE TO THE POTENTIAL SOCIETAL IMPACT. THE BEST LOW AND MID LEVEL FGEN ON THE NAM/GFS MAY IMPACT THE CAPITAL REGION SOUTH AND EAST SAT PM/SAT NIGHT WITH SNOW RATES EXCEEDING 1 INCH AN HOUR. WE ALSO STARTED THE WATCH EARLIER AT NOONTIME EVERYWHERE. THERE ARE SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH ONSET OF THE PCPN WITH THE GFS A LITTLE FASTER THAN THE NAM. BOTTOM LINE...ANY RAIN/SNOW MIX SHOULD QUICKLY TURN TO SNOW BASED ON THE WET BULB/EVAPORATIVE COOLING. THE NAM TRIES TO HANG ONTO TO THE DRY WEDGE A LITTLE LONGER WITH THE RETREATING COLD CANADIAN ANTICYCLONE ACROSS QUEBEC. THE LOW LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE QUICKLY MOVES TOWARDS THE SRN PERIPHERY OF THE FCST AREA IN THE MORNING INCREASING THE UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION FOR THE RAIN/SNOW MIX TO START. THE TRACK OF COASTAL LOW GOES FROM NEAR THE DELMARVA REGION AT 1800 UTC...TO JUST EAST OF CAPE COD AT 0600 UTC/SUN. THE SFC WAVE GOES THROUGH RAPID CYCLOGENESIS DURING THIS STRETCH WITH THE 06Z/GFS HAVING A 988 HPA LOW NEAR CAPE COD...18 HRS EARLIER WE HAVE A 1008 HPA LOW NEAR HATTERAS ! Whoever wrote that sounds very excited Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted October 28, 2011 Author Share Posted October 28, 2011 Looks like it's coming a hair west so far Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alpha5 Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Looks like it's coming a hair west so far Very slightly, the upstream height field looks about the same as 0z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted October 28, 2011 Author Share Posted October 28, 2011 Yup, maybe a hair more amplified through 30. Not as amped as the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Nothing is set in stone. To tell you the truth I won't believe that it will snow until it's falling from the sky and sticking on the ground. That's how fantastic the situation at hand is. The Euro needs to hold serve to bring some confidence. We'll find out soon enough. Btw can't believe Earthlight has needed to create 3 threads each one containing 50 pages for a storm in October. Simply incredible. Funny thing, seeing slush covered roads last night in Putnam County has eased my irrational belief that it cannot snow before Halloween. The only other times I'd seen snow this month were: near Albany in 2007, in Orange Ct in 2008, and on Mount Washington 12 years ago. The only trouble is that while it was 33F and snowing at 1000ft, 5 miles away it was 38F and raining. I've seen first hand how stubborn surface warmth can be. The BEST and sometimes ONLY way to overcome it when there is no polar air to advect southward is to have 35+ DBZ. And that might be just what we get. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alpha5 Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 HUGE hit at 36, plenty cold with thickness. wrong run, its a touch warmer this time around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 HUGE hit at 36, plenty cold with thickness. At this stage it tells me that the GFS thermal profiles are crap, and it's probably time to toss them barring some huge shift west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bmc10 Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 EURO is a huge hit at hour 36. Nice CCB right over NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Will happen easily. I'd be surprised if this isn't easily broken. I Yeah,beating snowfall records the last few years has not been too difficult. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Does the Euro have any height contour maps at 850? It'd be nice to see the placement of the 850 low.. anyhow.. the baroclinicity this thing has to work with in the lower levels is pretty wicked... very sharp thermal gradient at 850 mb just offshore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bmc10 Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 No it doesn't I am looking at the images right now. Same as previous runs, great ccb.. Does not look like GFS, not as warm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted October 28, 2011 Author Share Posted October 28, 2011 It leans towards the NAM more than the GFS for sure. But a hint warmer than the NAM it looks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 It leans towards the NAM more than the GFS for sure. But a hint warmer than the NAM it looks. a compromise between gfs and nam, as most have been stating, is best way to go....looks like euro is right there. awesome!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted October 28, 2011 Author Share Posted October 28, 2011 850 line doesn't touch the NJ coast or LI coast during the heaviest precip..not even close. 1000-500 540dm thickness line runs over NYC...down the Hudson. NAM is probably 15 miles east of there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 The 540 line is just west of NYC at 36 hours when an inch of precip has fallen, so snow just starts then probably. Then .25 to .50 falls as snow. West of there, more as it snows before 36 hours. It s def warmed from last nights run, regardless of what surface track does. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 850 line doesn't touch the NJ coast or LI coast during the heaviest precip..not even close. 1000-500 540dm thickness line runs over NYC...down the Hudson. NAM is probably 15 miles east of there. 850 is fine, but the 540 thickness is probably west of the city when the heaviest precip is falling, IMHO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 EC is about a degree Celsius warmer at 850 than the previous run at 0Z at TTN. So, perhaps a bit slower turning over the snow. I guess I'll stick with the 2-4" idea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jjvesnow Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 850 line doesn't touch the NJ coast or LI coast during the heaviest precip..not even close. 1000-500 540dm thickness line runs over NYC...down the Hudson. NAM is probably 15 miles east of there. Any precip maps? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 using thicknesses to forecast precip type is an outdated method... not when we have model skew-t's and graphics for every level of the atmosphere Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 The ukie 540 line and euro 540 are well aligned at 36 hours when the deform band is moving through, for those who cant see the euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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