WildWeatherAdventure Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 I know Jon Nese was calling for 4-8. Dont know if thats who he was talking about. Seems pretty reasonable though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Santa Clause Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 GFS looks east at 21...maybe 20 to 30 miles?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itunis Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 I'm curious, who said that? George Young seems to think less optimistically for this setup. But then again he is not a diehard model watcher and just knows a heck of a lot about all things weather. Nese. He was pretty gung -ho about it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 GFS looks east at 21...maybe 20 to 30 miles?? Yup. I'd like to see the 00z back west a bit again, but it's the difference between 6-8" and 8-10". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonesy56 Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 It has been 4-8" since the watch came out . They might have to go higher again looking at models this evening. Either way a lot of snow coming in the next 24hrs. Yea, from the State College AFD, they seem to agree with that possibility: "HAVE DEPICTED A WIDESPREAD 4-8 INCH SNOWFALLWHICH IN AND OF ITSELF WOULD BE AN HISTORIC EVENT FOR THE REGIONAND TIME OF YEAR...BUT WOULD NOT BE SHOCKED IF WE END UP WITHHIGHER AMOUNTS GIVEN THE FORECAST SYNOPTIC SETUP AND INTENSITY OF THE FORCING" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Final local amount call JST: 4-7" AOO: 5-8" UNV: 3-6" IPT: 3-6" HGR: 4-8" MDT: 6-10" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jmister Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Modeling seems to be honing in on final QPF. For UNV it looks like 0.75-1.00" is the idea. I've never made a map and I'm not about to start haha. So instead here is a crude idea of what I'm thinking for this storm… Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Modeling seems to be honing in on final QPF. For UNV it looks like 0.75-1.00" is the idea. I've never made a map and I'm not about to start haha. So instead here is a crude idea of what I'm thinking for this storm… Yup, and I think the lower end (~0.75") will be closer to verification amounts. Maybe as low as 0.5" at the very worst. But I'd take that over nothing in October any day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 ABC27 has HBG at 4". WGAL said 6-8". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 ABC27 has HBG at 4". WGAL said 6-8". ABC27 is .. I remember the storms last year they had like C-1" and we got 8". lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Light snow in Frostburg, MD. It is coming! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hckyplayer8 Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Hi. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PottercountyWXobserver Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 lol at us worrying about 6-8" or 8-12" . Are we really doing this, I mean its October most areas would be lucky to see a trace during this time. I can understand the greediness in DEC-MAR maybe even November but October really? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 DT's Last Call Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Cloudy and 44 degrees. Bring on the snow. About 8hrs till it starts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 18z GFS ensemble mean is still between 1.0" and 1.25" at UNV: http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/gfsensemble/18zgfsensemblep72072.gif Compared to about 1.25" or even a little more on the 12z GFS ensemble mean (which was the peak ensemble run). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 This is beautiful: http://rapidrefresh.noaa.gov/hrrrconus/from_jet/hrrr/full/2011102820/1ref_sfc_f14.png Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itunis Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 18z GFS ensemble mean is still between 1.0" and 1.25" at UNV: http://raleighwx.ame...emblep72072.gif Compared to about 1.25" or even a little more on the 12z GFS ensemble mean (which was the peak ensemble run). On a (relatively) low resolution model I'm not sweating slight shifts. If the 0Z suite goes significantly east I might crap my pants, but at this point a nice snowfall seems pretty damn likely. Precip is edging closer...down to 39 here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 TSSN! http://68.226.77.253/text/MESOSFC/NAM_Kmdt.txt Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 On a (relatively) low resolution model I'm not sweating slight shifts. If the 0Z suite goes significantly east I might crap my pants, but at this point a nice snowfall seems pretty damn likely. Precip is edging closer...down to 39 here. Oh, believe me, I'm not worried about it at all. Just pointing it out. I would be absolutely shocked if we managed less than 4" out of this. And 4", while not as awesome as 12", would be perfectly enjoyable for October. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 CTP has updated grids and snow amounts back up. Tonight: A chance of rain before 11pm, then rain and snow between 11pm and 2am, then snow after 2am. Low around 32. Light east wind. Chance of precipitation is 100%. Total nighttime snow accumulation of 1 to 2 inches possible. Saturday: Snow. The snow could be heavy at times. High near 35. North wind between 6 and 8 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 6 to 10 inches possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dcfox1 Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 really interested to see how much melting occurs even when the heavy snow starts, at least here in Lancaster Co. I'm sure accums will start well earlier north and west of Harrisburg; Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
I-83 BLIZZARD Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 CTP has updated grids and snow amounts back up. Tonight: A chance of rain before 11pm, then rain and snow between 11pm and 2am, then snow after 2am. Low around 32. Light east wind. Chance of precipitation is 100%. Total nighttime snow accumulation of 1 to 2 inches possible. Saturday: Snow. The snow could be heavy at times. High near 35. North wind between 6 and 8 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 6 to 10 inches possible. for what locality? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 for what locality? Parts of Franklin, Cumberland, Huntington counties and around there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Wonder when they reissue warnings? Probably around 830. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Alright folks, here's my map. Kinda threw it together quick.. been trying to get stuff ready around the yard and whatnot. Went with a large max zone of 6-10 with the darkest blue essentially being the 6 inch line. To cover potential for excessive double digit amounts opted for a dashed zone where 10+ amounts may show up. Kept axis of ground zero just a hair northwest of where 15z sref 12+ probs reside. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Alright folks, here's my map. Kinda threw it together quick.. been trying to get stuff ready around the yard and whatnot. Went with a large max zone of 6-10 with the darkest blue essentially being the 6 inch line. To cover potential for excessive double digit amounts opted for a dashed zone where 10+ amounts may show up. Kept axis of ground zero just a hair northwest of where 15z sref 12+ probs reside. Win. Nice map. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jns2183 Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 If someone had a ratio of the amount of red tag posts to non red-tag post our sub-forum would win hands down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Parts of Franklin, Cumberland, Huntington counties and around there. My point and click accums were bumped up as well. 1-2 tonight and 4-8 tomorrow. Now making for 6-10 total. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
2001kx Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 My point and click accums were bumped up as well. 1-2 tonight and 4-8 tomorrow. Now making for 6-10 total. mine have been inching up as well from 1-3 then 2-4 and now 3-5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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