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Central PA thread


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Clouds have come in with a vengence and it has that classic winter storm look.

48/26

was thinking that very thing on my drive from Carlisle back to the Burg. Early altocum now strat fract looking. Precip on the way is the signal from both.

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This is usually around the time where we see a slight east/weaker trend in the short term models, so lets see if that's the case. We're also in the time frame where watching the radar is important in terms of actual vs. forecasted precip.

My professor was talking about this storm and mentioned that many times in these types of situations, the trough of warm air aloft (ie the place that gets the best dynamics) tends to not make it back too far west. He said this setup may yield only a few inches back here, but will dump on places to the NW of the big cities. Lets see if he can out-forecast the models...

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My guess for highest accumulation is Eastern Schuylkill County....they look primed right now. UNV and IPT...AOO also, are a model shift away from either a big wallop or very little snow.

Screw the models at this point. from here on in, its SPC Mesoscale Analysis for the duration (as long as cable and power stay online)

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/mesoanalysis/new/viewsector.php?sector=19&parm=pmsl

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This is usually around the time where we see a slight east/weaker trend in the short term models, so lets see if that's the case. We're also in the time frame where watching the radar is important in terms of actual vs. forecasted precip.

My professor was talking about this storm and mentioned that many times in these types of situations, the trough of warm air aloft (ie the place that gets the best dynamics) tends to not make it back too far west. He said this setup may yield only a few inches back here, but will dump on places to the NW of the big cities. Lets see if he can out-forecast the models...

He seems to know what he's talking about..we've seen it happen a lot. Just NW of NYC to Philly could see the biggest totals...while west of a line drawn from AVP to HGR see less.

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Another great disco from CTP

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO FALL IN LINE WITH THE IDEA OF ANEARLY SEASON SNOWSTORM FOR LATER TONIGHT AND SATURDAY.12Z NAM/GFS BOTH BRING A RAPIDLY DEEPENING LOW TO NEAR THE MOUTHOF THE DELMARVA BY MID DAY SATURDAY SPREADING A LARGE SHIELD OFMDT-HVY PRECIPITATION OVER ALMOST ALL OF MY FCST AREA. TIMINGSUGGESTS THAT SNOW OR RAIN WILL BE FALLING OVER SOUTHERN AREAS BYDAYBREAK AND CONTINUE TO EXPAND IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITYTHROUGHOUT THE MORNING.EXPERIMENTAL HPC GRAPHICS SUGGEST WE SHOULD SEE SNOWFALL RATES OF1-2 INCHES PER HOUR FROM ABOUT MID MORNING THROUGH MID TO LATEAFTERNOON. THE FORECAST PRESENCE OF A POTENT COUPLED UPPER JETHELPS SUPPORT THE MODEL DEPICTIONS OF DEEP LAYERED FRONTOGENETICFORCING UNDERLYING A DEEP AREA OF VERY STEEP MID-UPPER LEVEL LAPSERATES. IT ALL SUGGESTS VERY EFFICIENT PRECIPITATION PRODUCTIONWITH EVEN THE POTENTIAL FOR THE ADDED CONTRIBUTION OF EMBEDDEDCONVECTION.HAVE ISSUED A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR THE PREVIOUS WATCH AREAAND EXPANDED IT TO A STRIPE OF COUNTIES ON THE NORTHERN EDGE. HAVEALSO ISSUED AN ADVISORY FOR THE NORTHWEST COUNTIES.TIME OF YEAR AND AIR TEMPS INITIALLY ARGUE FOR A LOW SNOW-WATERRATIO BUT ALL MODEL OUTPUT SEEMS TO POINT TO A RAPID COOL DOWNAND A 10:1 OR BETTER RATIO TAKING OVER AS ANOMALOUSLY CHILLY AIRIN PLACE WINS OUT. HAVE DEPICTED A WIDESPREAD 4-8 INCH SNOWFALLWHICH IN AND OF ITSELF WOULD BE AN HISTORIC EVENT FOR THE REGIONAND TIME OF YEAR...BUT WOULD NOT BE SHOCKED IF WE END UP WITHHIGHER AMOUNTS GIVEN THE FORECAST SYNOPTIC SETUP AND INTENSITY OFTHE FORCING.THE WEIGHT OF THE SNOW COULD PROVE TROUBLESOME. AS ISNORMAL...MANY AREAS - ESP THE LOWER SUSQ - STILL HAVE A HIGHPERCENTAGE OF THE LEAVES ON THE TREES. THIS HEAVY WET SNOW WILLWEIGH THE TREES DOWN AND BREAK LIMBS AND LEAD TO POWER OUTAGES.THERE COULD BE WIDESPREAD OUTAGES GIVEN THE EXPECTED COVERAGE OFHEAVY SNOW ACROSS THE REGION...LEADING TO A POTENTIALLY VERYDAMAGING AND DISRUPTIVE STORM.IN ADDITION...MANY FOLKS TRAVELING TO STATE COLLEGE THIS WEEKENDSHOULD KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON THIS SITUATION AS TRAVEL IS EXPECTEDTO BE EXTREMELY HAZARDOUS.

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This is usually around the time where we see a slight east/weaker trend in the short term models, so lets see if that's the case. We're also in the time frame where watching the radar is important in terms of actual vs. forecasted precip.

My professor was talking about this storm and mentioned that many times in these types of situations, the trough of warm air aloft (ie the place that gets the best dynamics) tends to not make it back too far west. He said this setup may yield only a few inches back here, but will dump on places to the NW of the big cities. Lets see if he can out-forecast the models...

NAM ain't budgin'.

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Fingers crossed for mallows map! Meteo Prof said 4-8, potential for more but ground temps could cut back on amounts (I'm sure Jamie has something to say to that).

I'm curious, who said that? George Young seems to think less optimistically for this setup. But then again he is not a diehard model watcher and just knows a heck of a lot about all things weather.

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