EasternUSWX Posted November 21, 2011 Share Posted November 21, 2011 12Z GFS nice and cold long range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted November 21, 2011 Share Posted November 21, 2011 18Z GFS has a nice snow storm at 252. Nice to see one at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted November 22, 2011 Share Posted November 22, 2011 Euros back in line with the other models on the cut-off low today. Pretty interesting stuff really if this actually pans out... cuz models are depicting a really deep cutoff low. We had some discussion in here about the great 1950 storm a few weeks ago, and I just caught this on Joe Bastardi's twitter. Look at this.. 500 mb anomaly nov 22-25 1950 vs forecasted 28-Dec 1 Twitter link On a related note, if you've been reading the Accuwx folks like Margusity...you'll know that they are really concerned that the Euro monthlies have come in pretty warm and that we could be going well into Jan with this warmth and will be considering changing their outlook dec 1st. Specifically, he is tying in the SOI (measures enso strength) having very low values thus far as part of that thinking. It is not near the values of last year, thus the nina is weaker this year so far. Personally, i'm not sure why that in itself is detrimental to getting a good winter pattern going. Ninas in our region really don't have a good correlation to any one thing unless its an especially strong one. What a weak nina or enso signal in general can mean is that our patterns will be more heavily influenced by the teleconnections like the EPO, PNA, NAO, AO, etc. RIght now, its just not our day quite yet with regards to these being favorable yet. I personally think that the Pacific pattern and the deep Alaska vortex has been much more of an influence on the current pattern here than the NAO/AO...although the AO staying positive has kept Arctic air in check. The PNA continues to be forecast to make a turn and go positive, which will hopefully lead to at least a somewhat more favorable pattern. The NAO and especially AO have very high spread in their forecasts. Lots of uncertainty and nothing set in stone going forward, and by the way we're still in the last 10 days of November...I know I wouldn't be budging on any thinking for a December forecast or beyond at this juncture until I see some things play out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted November 22, 2011 Author Share Posted November 22, 2011 I told my GF straight up that I may be up at 3 in the morning at times watching "pretty colors" on the computer screen. She thought I was crazy.. Then I introduced her to all the other Wx Nerds at the Meteorology Department at Millersville. She leaves me alone to do my "Wxnerding" now. I love her though, she even reminds me to do a forecast for WxChallenge and knows when 0z 6z 12z and 18z is! She's a keeper. Also, I'm going to start a new thread now guys. It's reached 50 pages and we are about to enter the Thanksgiving holiday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted November 22, 2011 Share Posted November 22, 2011 Euros back in line with the other models on the cut-off low today. Pretty interesting stuff really if this actually pans out... cuz models are depicting a really deep cutoff low. We had some discussion in here about the great 1950 storm a few weeks ago, and I just caught this on Joe Bastardi's twitter. Twitter link Yeah the was an awesome read from the attached links you posted last week. From the eyewitness accounts that must have been some storm. Long period of frzn, snow and the temps just plunged. I would think a storm like that today may be more devastating, with a greater population and how we rely much more on Electric then they did in the 50's. As that story stated, most were ok with heat, as in that area everyone had coal furnaces. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted November 22, 2011 Share Posted November 22, 2011 Looks like we are padding our yearly record rain fall totals in Harrisburg. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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