Eskimo Joe Posted October 29, 2011 Author Share Posted October 29, 2011 What a storm, might hit 5" at my place. Locations N&W of I-81 the accumulating snow is over or will be within the next 30min. For locations S&E of I-81, you have less than two hours of good snow left. Get out there any enjoy it! Temperature 31 Dew Point 31 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 Not only did this storm bust locally, but PSU just crapped the game away. What a day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PottercountyWXobserver Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 If our greyhound could post, after today's walk this is what she would post: OMG GUYZ THIS IS GREAT I USED TO LIVE IN FLORIDA SO LAST YEAR I WASNT SURE ABOUT SNOW AT FIRST BUT LOVE IT NOW OMG ITS GREAT TO WALK IN DID YOU KNOW YOU CAN SLIDE IN IT OMG THATS CRAZY YOU CAN ALSO EAT IT INCLUDING THE LEAVES PLUS I RECOMMEND RUNNING AROUND IN CIRCLES AND THEN STOPPING TO POOP YOU MAKE LIKE A CROP CIRCLE IN THE SNOW WITH A PILE OF POOP POTTER AND WMSPTWX WHAT ARE YOU EVEN TALKING ABOUT WE GOT WAY MORE SNOW THAN CLIMATOLOGY AND CMON LANCASTER GETS SIX INCHES EVEN I KNOW THATS NOT CLIMO AND I DONT EVEN USE APOSTROPHES OKAY I AM GOING TO LAY DOWN NOW FOR THE NEXT FIVE HOURS LATER. lolz I meant climatological for a Nor' Easter. Everyone knows climate says you are lucky to ever say a trace for this time of year. I wasn't even debating that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 Snow's done in HBG, what a storm. This surpasses any single event last winter. Hell, I'm now only 14" from last winter's total. And it's not even Novenber! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 No I'm being serious, I never said Harrisburg/York/ Lancaster did bad, I'm talking about the western part of the warned area and in general those that were below 1200ft did not reach 8" . Yes ridge top locations reached true winter storm warnings ie 8" + the majority of valley locations did not, I logically explained myself above. The "some" of the warnings and advisories I said yesterday did NOT reach their criteria, I did not mention Lancaster, York, and mid southern counties that normally do well in Nor Easters because I figured they would perform but I explained why the others did not. I wasn't expecting anything out this way so I'm not mad, I'm just being realistic and if I'm called pissy for that than I guess I am. I'm sure alot of others agree with my sentiments. I'm not bashing or even mad at meteorologist for being wrong, I'm just saying they weren't totally right. I think this storm was badass regardless, I'm just analysing what actually took place. Your first statement - don't go against climo - would have meant CTP would do worst with their forecast as MOST valley locations in the southern half of their forecast locales did well. For much of the area from State College south and east, NWS CTP did great. The forecast for State College was 4-8, that's what we got. Plus look at this: http://www.nws.noaa.gov/view/prodsByState.php?state=PA&prodtype=public#PNSCTP - lots of valley locations in there. Data is also known as "what actually took place." The gridded forecasts overall did well. Again, and no offense, I understand it's frustrating, but I have been on these boards long enough to recognize the old classic prototype from weather boards: "I am mad I didn't get snow so I am going to rant and try to disguise it with BS". It's as transparent as Saran Wrap. And plus, it's funny. It's cool, man, just keep in mind that it's easy to see through, which I guess also makes it funny. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Santa Clause Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 .8 total....not really that impressive even by Late October standards..I think we had more 7 or 8 years ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 Some big totals in the new-ish PNS. http://www.srh.noaa.gov/productview.php?pil=PNSCTP Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PottercountyWXobserver Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 Not only did this storm bust locally, but PSU just crapped the game away. What a day. Most everyone knows this storm underperformed for what was modeled, but you will get flamed for being critical. Either way this storm was cool and only happens once in a rare blue moon, but we can still compare to what happened and what was modeled or forecasted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 lolz I meant climatological for a Nor' Easter. Everyone knows climate says you are lucky to ever say a trace for this time of year. I wasn't even debating that. State College has done well in nor'easters before, it depends largely on track. Again, look at the numbers - much of the warning area other than the northern fringe did well. We did what I expected. I enjoyed the storm immensely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 Most everyone knows this storm underperformed for what was modeled, but you will get flamed for being critical. Either way this storm was cool and only happens once in a rare blue moon, but we can still compare to what happened and what was modeled or forecasted. Note how many people are complaining. Most seem happy. 4-8 was the forecast - I got 5. It was lots of fun. Take a deep breath....exhale......deep breath.....exhale. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PottercountyWXobserver Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 Your first statement - don't go against climo - would have meant CTP would do worst with their forecast as MOST valley locations in the southern half of their forecast locales did well. For much of the area from State College south and east, NWS CTP did great. The forecast for State College was 4-8, that's what we got. Plus look at this: http://www.nws.noaa....e=public#PNSCTP - lots of valley locations in there. Data is also known as "what actually took place." The gridded forecasts overall did well. Again, and no offense, I understand it's frustrating, but I have been on these boards long enough to recognize the old classic prototype from weather boards: "I am mad I didn't get snow so I am going to rant and try to disguise it with BS". It's as transparent as Saran Wrap. And plus, it's funny. It's cool, man, just keep in mind that it's easy to see through, which I guess also makes it funny. Ya ya I get it, I'm not going in to have a flame war with anyone on here. I like our board and the people on it. I told you I meant Climo for a Nor' Easter. All the advisories Warren, McKean, and Potter were all wrongly forecasted, along with Tioga, Clearfield,Elk, Cameron, parts of Lycoming, and Clinton counties did not reach a true definition of a winterstorm warning. Those counties typically according to climo do not do well in Nor Easters is all I meant. Most posters on here will tell you these counties that I said yesterday and today do not do well and didn't do well today even though it's October. This is all I'm saying CTP was wrong to issue warnings and advisories to these counties. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 Not only did this storm bust locally, but PSU just crapped the game away. What a day. I don't know what you got, but here in Tamaqua, we got about 6 inches. To me, even though we got less then what the highest forecast was, we still met warning criteria, and.....it's October. Any kind of plowable snow this early in the season is not a bust in my book. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
2001kx Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 Yea that sounds about right, judging by the radar the Knobs gonna be continuing to pile it up with that back end stuff. Hopin to see some of that back end, might salvage a lil bit more since its late in the day. Got a heck of a nice dryslot connection comin from 2001kx attm though haha. Even though the really intense bands missed, this still would've been a big hitter for mid-winter standards down into Altoona and State College if we had another month or so. Local nit picks aside, still a great storm. figured i would share that with you Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itunis Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 We didn't get 4" on the ground. I'm sure far more fell but it was definitely on the low end of the forecast when it comes to accumulation. Still great for late October. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 Ya ya I get it, I'm not going in to have a flame war with anyone on here. I like our board and the people on it. I told you I meant Climo for a Nor' Easter. All the advisories Warren, McKean, and Potter were all wrongly forecasted, along with Tioga, Clearfield,Elk, Cameron, parts of Lycoming, and Clinton counties did not reach a true definition of a winterstorm warning. Those counties typically according to climo do not do well in Nor Easters is all I meant. Most posters on here will tell you these counties that I said yesterday and today do not do well and didn't do well today even though it's October. This is all I'm saying CTP was wrong to issue warnings and advisories to these counties. Not flaming anyone. That's the minority portion of the warning area. Overall State College did well. Probably should have downgraded some of those areas to an advisory but the extreme early season nature of the system plays into the call they made. I don't know what you got, but here in Tamaqua, we got about 6 inches. To me, even though we got less then what the highest forecast was, we still met warning criteria, and.....it's October. Any kind of plowable snow this early in the season is not a bust in my book. Exactamundo, my truck driving friend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PottercountyWXobserver Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 We didn't get 4" on the ground. I'm sure far more fell but it was definitely on the low end of the forecast when it comes to accumulation. Still great for late October. This to a T, this is what I'm trying to say. I'm not disapointed at all, but I'm still going to be critical of every forecast that happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 Not only did this storm bust locally, but PSU just crapped the game away. What a day. They better score here. Awful. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itunis Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 This to a T, this is what I'm trying to say. I'm not disapointed at all, but I'm still going to be critical of every forecast that happens. I think their forecast was solid since they said 3-5 and we got 3". Early season snows are tough to forecast so I can't blame em for being cautious. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 This to a T, this is what I'm trying to say. I'm not disapointed at all, but I'm still going to be critical of every forecast that happens. I don't know what else to tell you. I guess maybe try another hobby. I am not kidding there. Some of you guys hyperfocus on the negative so much I wonder why you even bother with following weather if you get so upset. Here's what I recommend should become your slogan: "Keep your expectations tiny, that way you won't be so whiny" - heard that at a conference once for work and thought it's perfect for the weather boards. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PottercountyWXobserver Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 Not flaming anyone. That's the minority portion of the warning area. Overall State College did well. Probably should have downgraded some of those areas to an advisory but the extreme early season nature of the system plays into the call they made. Exactamundo, my truck driving friend. I'm not mad at you Jaime, I hardly get mad at anyone, I just have critical debates with everyone from time to time. It might be a minority, but it is still wrong and yes I would have downgraded all of the western counties that were warned. I said they might have kept the warning up just because of the early season snowfall argument. Compaction and warm boundary layers in the valleys really kept this storm from reaching the potential. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 I don't know what you got, but here in Tamaqua, we got about 6 inches. To me, even though we got less then what the highest forecast was, we still met warning criteria, and.....it's October. Any kind of plowable snow this early in the season is not a bust in my book. I don't think we even hit 1". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
djr5001 Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 CTP has a tough job to do with the watch/warning/advisory boxes for a number of counties where they have a mix of high and low elevations... the potential was there so I think they did well issuing the watch/warning/advisories... MDT has had 1.37" precip since midnight and what will be 5-6" officially and has not been below 32 degrees yet here this fall!!!!... there was never a high qpf forecast for north of the state which pretty much was needed to get the high snowfall rates to accumulate so of course some areas didnt see much as a result... no way this storm can be considered a bust but rather quite historic Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted October 29, 2011 Author Share Posted October 29, 2011 CTP has a tough job to do with the watch/warning/advisory boxes for a number of counties where they have a mix of high and low elevations... the potential was there so I think they did well issuing the watch/warning/advisories... MDT has had 1.37" precip since midnight and what will be 5-6" officially and has not been below 32 degrees yet here this fall!!!!... there was never a high qpf forecast for north of the state which pretty much was needed to get the high snowfall rates to accumulate so of course some areas didnt see much as a result... no way this storm can be considered a bust but rather quite historic Well said Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PottercountyWXobserver Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 CTP has a tough job to do with the watch/warning/advisory boxes for a number of counties where they have a mix of high and low elevations... the potential was there so I think they did well issuing the watch/warning/advisories... MDT has had 1.37" precip since midnight and what will be 5-6" officially and has not been below 32 degrees yet here this fall!!!!... there was never a high qpf forecast for north of the state which pretty much was needed to get the high snowfall rates to accumulate so of course some areas didnt see much as a result... no way this storm can be considered a bust but rather quite historic Yes they do, but northwestern and western counties in PA don't do well (ie the counties I mentioned) in Nor' Easters because the high QPF amounts never make it back that far unless they have enough of an expansive comma head like 93' 67' and other rare producing Nor' Easters for the locations I mentioned. CTP should always err on the side of caution for the counties I mentioned because it goes against typical climo for Nor' Easters. That is one reason Williamsport, Lock Haven, Renovo area is such a crappy place to live if you love winter, because you don't get alot of Lake Effect and you miss the majority of Nor Easters. It especially gets worse the deeper you go into winter because storms are more likely to hit the bench mark instead of close to the tight land/water gradient earlier in winter. You have to rely on inland runners or really close LP huggers and climatologically speaking doesn't happen very often or enjoy nickle and dime events from the Ohio Valley lows. If you truely want to experience an epic coastal storm the counties I mentioned will rarely see it. End of CTP rant. Great historic storm everyone!! enjoy it cause November looks torch esque in my opinion but we will see Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gbru316 Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 Pass interference!!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pawatch Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 Well we were suppose to be in the 3-7" range. But that didn't really work out. We didn't start changing over to snow until about almost 1:00. And then it just coated the grass and nothing accumulated on the roadways. I was disappointed that we weren't anywhere close to what they was forecasting. But it was nice watching football and watching it snow all afternoon. Then not having to go out and clean all the snow up. It's only October and the winter is just starting. I'm sure there will be some disappointments and some surprises. "Stay Tuned" And thanks to all the knowledgeable people who kept us informed on what was going on!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 Here is a recap of the day with pictures. 8 a.m. Snow begins to stick. Dusting. 9 a.m. Snow begins to fall moderately. About .5" on the ground. 10:30 a.m. Heavy snow. 1.5" has fallen. Starting to stick on everything. Noon. Heavy snow continues. 3" has fallen 1 p.m. Heavy snow. 4" now. Walked around to view for damage. Found little. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 5 p.m. Light snow. 6.5" final total. 6:30 p.m. Some night pics after the storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pawatch Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 5 p.m. Light snow. 6.5" final total. 6:30 p.m. Some night pics after the storm. Nice Pictures Zach!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 Ya ya I get it, I'm not going in to have a flame war with anyone on here. I like our board and the people on it. I told you I meant Climo for a Nor' Easter. All the advisories Warren, McKean, and Potter were all wrongly forecasted, along with Tioga, Clearfield,Elk, Cameron, parts of Lycoming, and Clinton counties did not reach a true definition of a winterstorm warning. Those counties typically according to climo do not do well in Nor Easters is all I meant. Most posters on here will tell you these counties that I said yesterday and today do not do well and didn't do well today even though it's October. This is all I'm saying CTP was wrong to issue warnings and advisories to these counties. I do agree that maybe the advisories back past Bradford were probably a bit much, I reflected as much with my snowmap keeping them in the 1-3 range. But I expected you to see at least some low end advisory totals and it didn't work out too well. Never expected you guys up there to be into the heavier bands but I figured there would be less problems accumulating at lighter rates. Clearfield county did have a 6 inch report in Madera, so technically the warning in that county verified..although sometimes I think that county might better be served being divided in some fashion. My 6 inch line was basically representing where i figured the edge of the heavy bands would go, and it worked out fairly well in the south central, but not in ne PA. Hazelton you only got an inch?? Ugh. These east faders to the benchmark are a pain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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