JamieOber Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 I can say the same for Lancaster. I still have my doubts, but man in a few days it's November. I think the issue is that it's really been sprung on people with all of the NW trending over the last two days. Just yesterday, it was "hey, we might get two inches!". When I woke up this morning -- and I keep an unhealthy eye on this stuff for a non-meteorologist -- it was October Power Outage Armageddon. Just within the last hour, PennLive.com has the potential snowfall amounts on their front page. It's going to catch a lot of people by surprise. i spoke spoke with one of our coaches who lives in York county. he thinks were still playing our game Sunday. He said he doesn't buy it for a second we'll have any snow let alone 6". He also thinks it will be 56 degrees Sunday at 12 noon. lol here's the reasons he was given: - the classic, forecasts are never ever right including someone who claims that yesterday the forecast was for 60 degrees today (I love that one). - Snow, even flurries is impossible in October - ground is so warm it can't lay - It was so nice this week, how can it snow Saturday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pawatch Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 It's such a nice sunny day- SNOW tomorrow? Is what my friends are saying. Then..... the I'm not ready for that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PennMan Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Man, people even here are just not buying this. Yeah same here. Several friends have texted me this morning saying there is no way we get decent snow...I told them to get prepared, because power is gonna be out for a lot of people, possibly for awhile if we get 6-10" of cement. Oaks are still fully leafed here, some are still partially green. Good post about the October accumulating snow. I don't care how warm the ground supposedly is, if it's snowing at 2" per hour it will stick to everything, and our sun angle is the same as mid-February. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
djr5001 Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 NCEP Probability 8+" snow I can't help but just stare at this image and wonder if this is real... 40% for such a large area in October is pretty significant... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Good luck up there!! You guys must be rooting on the SREFs at this point, but most models bring you into a good stripe of snow (I-99/219 east). Hopefully the tree damage isn't too severe. I-81 could get clobbered pretty good, especially in areas like Schuylkill County/Hazleton, etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Is your coach Linda Thompson? Amarillo, Texas, had 4.5" snow yesterday. This year's weather has been insanity all around. Trees here haven't lost many leaves yet, that'll be the biggest issue in the HBG area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
runupthescore Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 - It was so nice this week, how can it snow Saturday Well, yeah, you can't argue with that logic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted October 28, 2011 Author Share Posted October 28, 2011 lol here's the reasons he was given: - the classic, forecasts are never ever right including someone who claims that yesterday the forecast was for 60 degrees today (I love that one). - Snow, even flurries is impossible in October - ground is so warm it can't lay - It was so nice this week, how can it snow Saturday I can see the validity of the first three arguments, but the fourth one just. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 I'm not sure which trend to root for at this point... The NW trend lands us more precip, but in the valley, that could warm us up enough for non-accumulating snow or even rain. The SE trend cools things off some, but less precip, and it is (again) a sharp cutoff so we could see way less snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 NAM has precip further north at 09Z Saturday, well into PA on the 12Z NAM compared to 06 NAM but don't know if that means anything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 It's such a nice sunny day- SNOW tomorrow? Is what my friends are saying. Then..... the I'm not ready for that. Is your coach Linda Thompson? Amarillo, Texas, had 4.5" snow yesterday. This year's weather has been insanity all around. Trees here haven't lost many leaves yet, that'll be the biggest issue in the HBG area. Well, yeah, you can't argue with that logic. I can see the validity of the first three arguments, but the fourth one just. I don't know if you guys have noticed this like I have, but the general public sometimes seems to not get the concept that weather systems are dynamic and move. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Billabong Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 NAM has precip further north at 09Z Saturday, well into PA on the 12Z NAM compared to 06 NAM but don't know if that means anything. Trough is digging more. No doubt the NAM will continue the trend west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Wish I could make it out to University Park this weekend. The trends for the storm seem firmly planted in your direction!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 NAM absolute kills my area. Wow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Even the NAM gives UNV 0.5"+ of liquid-equivalent precip now. And it's still trending northwest from run to run. EDIT: looks like 0.75"+, actually. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 1.75" basically all snow? Ya i'll take it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Storm Clouds Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Where is the mixing taking place on this run? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Even the NAM gives UNV 0.5"+ of liquid-equivalent precip now. And it's still trending northwest from run to run. EDIT: looks like 0.75"+, actually. Looks like the NMM is the only model now showing light snow for us? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Billabong Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Even the NAM gives UNV 0.5"+ of liquid-equivalent precip now. And it's still trending northwest from run to run. EDIT: looks like 0.75"+, actually. Checked the text output... it's right around 1.0" liquid for UNV. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
whiteout Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 NAM absolute kills my area. Wow. Are we at risk of mixing issues that would cut down accumulations? BTW, im in Shippensburg as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Are we at risk of mixing issues that would cut down accumulations? BTW, im in Shippensburg as well I think in Shippensburg your safe Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
djr5001 Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 text output has surface temps colder all around the area too... MDT/LNS now just below freezing at surface and almost 2" QPF in 12 hours... insane... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Are we at risk of mixing issues that would cut down accumulations? BTW, im in Shippensburg as well Nah we are fine. The precip will be coming down so hard. Evap cooling. Only might start as mix for first 2-3hrs but then all snow...heavy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Looks like the NMM is the only model now showing light snow for us? Well both the 00z NMM and ARW WRFs are showing light snow for us, but these models only go out to 48 hrs for a reason. They're really only good in the very-near term. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
runupthescore Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 text output has surface temps colder all around the area too... MDT/LNS now just below freezing at surface and almost 2" QPF in 12 hours... insane... Good Lord, that better not happen. We're going to be ultra-screwed here if that occurs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 text output has surface temps colder all around the area too... MDT/LNS now just below freezing at surface and almost 2" QPF in 12 hours... insane... I think it would be insane even if you cut that 2" qbf in half. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jmister Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 12z NAM totals...finally caught up to the rest of the world! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Final call coming out at 3 p.m. In the meantime here is my latest local numbers. JST: 4-7" AOO: 5-8" UNV: 4-7" IPT: 3-5" HGR: 4-7" MDT: 7-11" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Get your bread and milk! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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