amarshall Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Good luck to the coast on Saturday night high tide. Our marina is still full in Marshfield. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 LOL...have never seen...PVC: WDR 31 32 31 34 35 03 05 07 06 05 04 02 34 32 32 31 31 31 31 30 30 WSP 11 10 09 09 08 07 08 15 18 24 25 31 39 39 36 29 24 22 18 11 09 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 A little OT, but relevant for this storm nonetheless is how chilly it is out there today. Already 11 AM, and it's struggling to get out of the low to mid 30s. PSF came in at 33 for the 11 AM ob. My P&C forecast has me at 44, and I don't think we'll come anywhere near that. We may very well stay sub 40 for a high today. Quite impressive for a sunny day in October. Still 34.1 here on the MT..with snow OTG..it's coming off the trees though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 8 at BDL! Can you post the link to these? I've lost it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Still 34.1 here on the MT..with snow OTG..it's coming off the trees though How much did you get yesterday? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 That was a terrible workout... spent more time checking the board between sets than lifting. Either way extreme extreme full frontal on the 12z NAM. 2M and BL temps have trended colder back here in CT with stronger northerly ageostrophic flow. Near blizzard conditions even down to the shoreline. Absolutely remarkable. An event like this has the return time of a cat 3 hurricane in SNE. This is unbelievable. LOL WHHHHHEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEE :scooter: :scooter: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 How much did you get yesterday? 1.1 There will be still be snow OTG in shady spots by the end of today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 The NAM does jackpot NW CT into the Berks and ene into sw NH. Other areas get a sh*tload, but that seems to be the "best" area on the NAM. I also think there might be another QPF max closer to the coast. I'm not sure yet. The intensity of CF band is going to be ludicrous. There will probably be a decent subsidence zone outside of it. That's my concern Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 1.1 There will be still be snow OTG in shady spots by the end of today Nice! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 I checked and I got about 9 inches in the 1/12 storm that you speak of. Yes 12Z looks similar with a big cut-off not too far west of here, but I'm certainly liking the trend! Yes snow cover is a beautiful thing Re: high temperatures. Just cracked 32 here and nothing has melted yet, but I'm sure we melt quite a bit in sun exposed areas during the afternoon. It looks like a winter wonderland here, but underneath the snow is a quicksand like swamp. LOL Absolutely gorgeous run of the NAM for Berkshires as it gets us into the heavy QPF. Very sharp gradient between PSF and just NW of ALB. Looking very similar to 1/12/11 when Berks got smoked under a 3"+ per hour meso band while just NW of ALB got screwed. This would probably start off as 33-34 wet snow for an hour or two before switching to 30-31 and +SN, quite possibly +TSSN. A foot or more looking like a good bet around here if this solution comes to fruition. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Apples and oranges comparing last night to this next ordeal - Folks, be wise not to fall into that trap. First of all, heavy snow WILL ACCUMULATE and do so with ease. I think I'm done with the time of year warm earth falseness. This next event is also of an entirely diffferent dynamical ilk than last night's system, and cannot logically be used comparatively for what to expect going forward for that reason alone. But there is more to this... This morning the ride to work featured gossamer snow covering the ground amid 31F cold with brilliant sun... The skies cleared during the overnight and temps reeled due to the new fallen snow. Just that thin aid assisted a cold realization. Though most snow will have disappeared during the day today, the region still suffered a cooling primer and soil temperatures in the contact depths have certainly cooled substantially enough. That environmental variability needs to be considered if anyone is thinking, 'Oh, it's October whatever so it won't stick' - that would be incredibly obtuse considering point 1, and this one combined. Tonight, clear skies and DPs of 27-33F, long night with bubble high and superior radiator will drill the DP and temperature couplet down to probably the mid 20s - watch for patchy ground ice fog near streams/rivers/revenes. Decoupling shouldn't be much of a issue in achievement. This will actually "freeze" the top 1/4" of exposed surfaces. Looking at the thermal sigma levels in the FRH grid this next system actually has the possibility of being a 29F ordeal for the interior, over the previous thinking of a 32-33F blue event. This is primarily a nocturnal event for starters, but the 800mb of -7C with dynamical cooling raging, and 980mb of only 0C at Logan with 35kt sustain middle boundary layer flow, and wind that is heavily backed (as discussed, deepening rates combined with this systems particular storm track will cause an enhanced cross-isobaric flow) into the N fending off any ocean tainting, that whole synopsis connotes 20kts sustained near for the lower levels, and about 25-30kts with gusts up near ORH, emperatures some 3 to 5F colder than that 32F at Logan. Last night it was also discussed that the 00z surface track was not very well aligned with the best jet mechanic-derived UVM, and that the low should track closer to the where that is. That axis of best lift is often denoted by the thickness packing (for complicated physical reasons associated with q-vector restoring inflow jets) ... but the point is, the low was some 200 miles east of that axis in the 00z NAM's depiction. The 00z GFS was west, the 06z NAM came a little west, and now the 12z NAM appears closer to reality considering these deep layer observations. (ECM targeted). For that we have very good broad-spectrum model type consensus amid both the mesoscale and globally based tools. Confidence is high for a storm track from ~ southern NJ to just SE of ACK. This will unfortunately maximize this system's impact potential for those that do not wish it, and be very fortunate to those who do... This systen should bring along superior -EPV related instability and meso banding amid a general well-described comma head. All the earmarks physics for producing this are present and in anomalous form. It would not be a shocker to light up the night a couple of times and send a low decible beam-rattling boom through the country side. This is a mid winter classic 60 to 75 days ahead of schedule. Infrustructural issue I believe will be extreme in a narrow region where 32F. As we have collectively been onto for some time, the unusually warm weeks prior to this cold pattern arrival has seriously belated the foliage progression. Many trees are still burdened with near full-leaf out. Last night I observed a mere 1 inch of slushy snow bend limbs mightily down. This is a factor that is unusually pronounced here. I believe the colder profile that is emerging will spare a lot of the deeper interior as intimated above, but closer to I-95 and KRAY (as it were...), if the ageostrophic vector allows a coastal boundary to vascillated in that area there is going to be a problem. Not sure how to convey this without sounding hystrionic but civility really needs to be warned about this and that pervasive power failures would be a veritable certainty, and that preparations should be implemented now. Tip, Could you provide insight for thoughts about BWI/DCA corridor? (Seeing as you nailed every aspect of this storm from early October) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Nice! There's pictures posted in the other thread that i took this AM..Link is like the 3rd or 4th page of this thread Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Can you post the link to these? I've lost it. http://asp1.sbs.ohio-state.edu/ pull down the menu under text. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 There's pictures posted in the other thread that i took this AM..Link is like the 3rd or 4th page of this thread Beautiful! Glad to see that type of scenery again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Going right through our fannies. and you will like it....and you will ask for more Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 and you will like it....and you will ask for more I hope I see 12''+ in southern VT. I'll be taking pics...lots and lots of pics. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattb65 Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Apples and oranges comparing last night to this next ordeal - Folks, be wise not to fall into that trap. First of all, heavy snow WILL ACCUMULATE and do so with ease. I think I'm done with the time of year warm earth falseness. This next event is also of an entirely diffferent dynamical ilk than last night's system, and cannot logically be used comparatively for what to expect going forward for that reason alone. But there is more to this... This morning the ride to work featured gossamer snow covering the ground amid 31F cold with brilliant sun... The skies cleared during the overnight and temps reeled due to the new fallen snow. Just that thin aid assisted a cold realization. Though most snow will have disappeared during the day today, the region still suffered a cooling primer and soil temperatures in the contact depths have certainly cooled substantially enough. That environmental variability needs to be considered if anyone is thinking, 'Oh, it's October whatever so it won't stick' - that would be incredibly obtuse considering point 1, and this one combined. Tonight, clear skies and DPs of 27-33F, long night with bubble high and superior radiator will drill the DP and temperature couplet down to probably the mid 20s - watch for patchy ground ice fog near streams/rivers/revenes. Decoupling shouldn't be much of a issue in achievement. This will actually "freeze" the top 1/4" of exposed surfaces. Looking at the thermal sigma levels in the FRH grid this next system actually has the possibility of being a 29F ordeal for the interior, over the previous thinking of a 32-33F blue event. This is primarily a nocturnal event for starters, but the 800mb of -7C with dynamical cooling raging, and 980mb of only 0C at Logan with 35kt sustain middle boundary layer flow, and wind that is heavily backed (as discussed, deepening rates combined with this systems particular storm track will cause an enhanced cross-isobaric flow) into the N fending off any ocean tainting, that whole synopsis connotes 20kts sustained near for the lower levels, and about 25-30kts with gusts up near ORH, emperatures some 3 to 5F colder than that 32F at Logan. Last night it was also discussed that the 00z surface track was not very well aligned with the best jet mechanic-derived UVM, and that the low should track closer to the where that is. That axis of best lift is often denoted by the thickness packing (for complicated physical reasons associated with q-vector restoring inflow jets) ... but the point is, the low was some 200 miles east of that axis in the 00z NAM's depiction. The 00z GFS was west, the 06z NAM came a little west, and now the 12z NAM appears closer to reality considering these deep layer observations. (ECM targeted). For that we have very good broad-spectrum model type consensus amid both the mesoscale and globally based tools. Confidence is high for a storm track from ~ southern NJ to just SE of ACK. This will unfortunately maximize this system's impact potential for those that do not wish it, and be very fortunate to those who do... This systen should bring along superior -EPV related instability and meso banding amid a general well-described comma head. All the earmarks physics for producing this are present and in anomalous form. It would not be a shocker to light up the night a couple of times and send a low decible beam-rattling boom through the country side. This is a mid winter classic 60 to 75 days ahead of schedule. Infrustructural issue I believe will be extreme in a narrow region where 32F. As we have collectively been onto for some time, the unusually warm weeks prior to this cold pattern arrival has seriously belated the foliage progression. Many trees are still burdened with near full-leaf out. Last night I observed a mere 1 inch of slushy snow bend limbs mightily down. This is a factor that is unusually pronounced here. I believe the colder profile that is emerging will spare a lot of the deeper interior as intimated above, but closer to I-95 and KRAY (as it were...), if the ageostrophic vector allows a coastal boundary to vascillated in that area there is going to be a problem. Not sure how to convey this without sounding hystrionic but civility really needs to be warned about this and that pervasive power failures would be a veritable certainty, and that preparations should be implemented now. One of your finest rants, this one should be saved. 21 bun salute even though I actually agree with most of what you said, cause that was just an epic description, awesome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 happy birthday to you I hope I see 12''+ in southern VT. I'll be taking pics...lots and lots of pics. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Looking at the NAM bufkit here at BDL if we do start at rain it shouldn't last long at all so 99% of this will be snow here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 happy birthday to you I couldn't ask for anything better! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
adamrivers Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Jeez, I hope BOX isn't as conservative with issuing tornado warnings as they are with snow accumulation forecasts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 http://asp1.sbs.ohio-state.edu/ pull down the menu under text. Thanks. 8 for PSF, 6 for aqw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 A little OT, but relevant for this storm nonetheless is how chilly it is out there today. Already 11 AM, and it's struggling to get out of the low to mid 30s. PSF came in at 33 for the 11 AM ob. My P&C forecast has me at 44, and I don't think we'll come anywhere near that. We may very well stay sub 40 for a high today. Quite impressive for a sunny day in October. Yea was just looking at our DPs here at work in SECT, currently 28, impressive as it gets for a full sun Oct day, temp is 42 at noon, just wow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Looking at the NAM bufkit here at BDL if we do start at rain it shouldn't last long at all so 99% of this will be snow here. Who do you think wins!? My house or wherever you're going in svt? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 141 users in october Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Nearly 1.8'' of QPF at BDL per bufkit! With snowfall ratios of around 12:1 or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HinghamBoss Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 What do you think Jerry, is it going to be a freezing cold rain at my new place in Hingham? Snow numbers are with a very tight graident. 0 PYM/TAN to 6 MQE/OWD/BOS/BVY to 8 LWM/ORH/BDL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsean Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 I couldn't ask for anything better! snownado? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 LoL. It's true! Scott and Phil told me it would look like Mid winter here. Th ey weren't kidding. Cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 I'm not sure yet. The intensity of CF band is going to be ludicrous. There will probably be a decent subsidence zone outside of it. That's my concern Yeah it's possible..hence why there may be a two area QPF max...but I don't know. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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