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October 29/30 Snowstorm Disco - II


Baroclinic Zone

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Yeah Paul, Rina may be playing a roll in this hence the hefty qpf, You also have to factor that the water is still very warm over the baroclinic zone so thats also a pump source as well

Great points...especially with the SST's. You're also looking at at 50-70 kt LLJ feeding right into the storm which will really help to add some Atlantic moisture into the mix as well. Plus dewpoints in the warm side of this are near 60F!

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Rina may be playing some roll in the hefty qpf, Those were factors from a couple of days ago that i think was not on the table at the time as well as the storm other then the "KING" having it, That may be something to watch going forward is how much of Rina's remnants get involved

The enhanced water vapor images will be fun to watch tomorrow. I would imagine with the storm rapidly deepening off the Va. coast at least some of the moisture from a decaying but juicy Rina will get pulled in.

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Yeah, maybe fashion a sail out of a bedsheet. I'll get to Naples in record time.

Looks like the dominoes are falling in our favor now. Hvy hvy Octobomb.

People will be flocking to the stores today, Power outages will be of major concern as had stated earlier, Stll a lot of trees with leaves here...

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Absolutely gorgeous run of the NAM for Berkshires as it gets us into the heavy QPF. Very sharp gradient between PSF and just NW of ALB. Looking very similar to 1/12/11 when Berks got smoked under a 3"+ per hour meso band while just NW of ALB got screwed. This would probably start off as 33-34 wet snow for an hour or two before switching to 30-31 and +SN, quite possibly +TSSN. A foot or more looking like a good bet around here if this solution comes to fruition.

Thanks, Mitch--that's great to know. Of course, we'll see how the remainder of the suite plays out.

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Scott (CoastalWx), how much do you think we get (our by) if the NAM pans out?

LOL an inch per every mile inland.

Well you would likely get several inches I would think. I've never seen anything like this, so I am in uncharted territory for lower elevations and esp near the coast. NAM is virtually all snow for you.

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Absolutely gorgeous run of the NAM for Berkshires as it gets us into the heavy QPF. Very sharp gradient between PSF and just NW of ALB. Looking very similar to 1/12/11 when Berks got smoked under a 3"+ per hour meso band while just NW of ALB got screwed. This would probably start off as 33-34 wet snow for an hour or two before switching to 30-31 and +SN, quite possibly +TSSN. A foot or more looking like a good bet around here if this solution comes to fruition.

We're holding the snow here. Good chance of snow falling on snow so we won't waste anytime racking it up.

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A little OT, but relevant for this storm nonetheless is how chilly it is out there today. Already 11 AM, and it's struggling to get out of the low to mid 30s. PSF came in at 33 for the 11 AM ob. My P&C forecast has me at 44, and I don't think we'll come anywhere near that. We may very well stay sub 40 for a high today. Quite impressive for a sunny day in October.

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My enthusiasm will spike if/when Albany honks this afternoon.

HWO

THERE IS A CHANCE OF A MODERATE TO HEAVY ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL ON

SATURDAY. IF CONFIDENCE INCREASES...THEN A WINTER STORM

WATCH. WILL BE ISSUED LATER TODAY

From AFD

THE GFS DUMB GUY SNOW OUTPUT IS 1-4 INCHES NORTH...10-15 IN HIGHER

TRRN OF VT/MA/NY AND 6-8 ON VLY FLOORS. YES THESE ARE WINTER EQ

AND THURSDAYS EVENT IT WAS ADVERTISING 4-8 INCHES AND MOST AREAS

SAW 1-3. ITS NAM COUNTER PART IS MUCH FURTHER SOUTH...WITH 1-2 IN

CATSKILLS AND 8 IN LITCHFIELD

I think I'm the "dumb guy". :arrowhead:

Apples and oranges comparing last night to this next ordeal -

Folks, be wise not to fall into that trap.

First of all, heavy snow WILL ACCUMULATE and do so with ease. I think I'm done with the time of year warm earth falseness. This next event is also of an entirely diffferent dynamical ilk than last night's system, and cannot logically be used comparatively for what to expect going forward for that reason alone.

But there is more to this... This morning the ride to work featured gossamer snow covering the ground amid 31F cold with brilliant sun... The skies cleared during the overnight and temps reeled due to the new fallen snow. Just that thin aid assisted a cold realization. Though most snow will have disappeared during the day today, the region still suffered a cooling primer and soil temperatures in the contact depths have certainly cooled substantially enough. That environmental variability needs to be considered if anyone is thinking, 'Oh, it's October whatever so it won't stick' - that would be incredibly obtuse considering point 1, and this one combined.

Tonight, clear skies and DPs of 27-33F, long night with bubble high and superior radiator will drill the DP and temperature couplet down to probably the mid 20s - watch for patchy ground ice fog near streams/rivers/revenes. Decoupling shouldn't be much of a issue in achievement. This will actually "freeze" the top 1/4" of exposed surfaces.

Looking at the thermal sigma levels in the FRH grid this next system actually has the possibility of being a 29F ordeal for the interior, over the previous thinking of a 32-33F blue event. This is primarily a nocturnal event for starters, but the 800mb of -7C with dynamical cooling raging, and 980mb of only 0C at Logan with 35kt sustain middle boundary layer flow, and wind that is heavily backed (as discussed, deepening rates combined with this systems particular storm track will cause an enhanced cross-isobaric flow) into the N fending off any ocean tainting, that whole synopsis connotes 20kts sustained near for the lower levels, and about 25-30kts with gusts up near ORH, emperatures some 3 to 5F colder than that 32F at Logan.

Last night it was also discussed that the 00z surface track was not very well aligned with the best jet mechanic-derived UVM, and that the low should track closer to the where that is. That axis of best lift is often denoted by the thickness packing (for complicated physical reasons associated with q-vector restoring inflow jets) ... but the point is, the low was some 200 miles east of that axis in the 00z NAM's depiction. The 00z GFS was west, the 06z NAM came a little west, and now the 12z NAM appears closer to reality considering these deep layer observations. (ECM targeted). For that we have very good broad-spectrum model type consensus amid both the mesoscale and globally based tools. Confidence is high for a storm track from ~ southern NJ to just SE of ACK. This will unfortunately maximize this system's impact potential for those that do not wish it, and be very fortunate to those who do...

This systen should bring along superior -EPV related instability and meso banding amid a general well-described comma head. All the earmark physics for producing this are present and in anomalous form. It would not be a shocker to light up the night a couple of times and send a low decible beam-rattling boom through the country side.

This is a mid winter classic 60 to 75 days ahead of schedule.

Infrustructural issue I believe will be extreme in a narrow region where 32F. As we have collectively been onto for some time, the unusually warm weeks prior to this cold pattern arrival has seriously belated the foliage progression. Many trees are still burdened with near full-leaf out. Last night I observed a mere 1 inch of slushy snow bend limbs mightily down. This is a factor that is unusually pronounced here. I believe the colder profile that is emerging will spare a lot of the deeper interior as intimated above, but closer to I-95 and KRAY (as it were...), if the ageostrophic vector allows a coastal boundary to vascillated in that area there is going to be a problem. Not sure how to convey this without sounding hystrionic but civility really needs to be warned about this and that pervasive power failures would be a veritable certainty, and that preparations should be implemented now.

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That was a terrible workout... spent more time checking the board between sets than lifting.

Either way extreme extreme full frontal on the 12z NAM. 2M and BL temps have trended colder back here in CT with stronger northerly ageostrophic flow. Near blizzard conditions even down to the shoreline. Absolutely remarkable. An event like this has the return time of a cat 3 hurricane in SNE. This is unbelievable.

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This is going to be the best weekend of our October lives. It started as a pipe dream 5 days ago....but now that we are inside 36 hours of the event things are still coming together....even better than we thought. This is unbelievable. Thinking a general 4-8 for those outside of 495 with possibly the Worcester hills reaching that 8" and maybe beyond. One question though, if this unfolds are forecasted or as us weanies hope, does this go down as a HECS because of the month in which it is occurring?

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A little OT, but relevant for this storm nonetheless is how chilly it is out there today. Already 11 AM, and it's struggling to get out of the low to mid 30s. PSF came in at 33 for the 11 AM ob. My P&C forecast has me at 44, and I don't think we'll come anywhere near that. We may very well stay sub 40 for a high today. Quite impressive for a sunny day in October.

Good point, Broken overcast here and 40F

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That was a terrible workout... spent more time checking the board between sets than lifting.

Either way extreme extreme full frontal on the 12z NAM. 2M and BL temps have trended colder back here in CT with stronger northerly ageostrophic flow. Near blizzard conditions even down to the shoreline. Absolutely remarkable. An event like this has the return time of a cat 3 hurricane in SNE. This is unbelievable.

I think it's actually possible (here in CT at least) that winds could be stronger for a period than they were during Irene...even across SE parts of the region.

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