HoarfrostHubb Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Look at this swath! Pure weenie porn Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Yeah totally agree. I think we won't have to worry too much, I doubt the changes are done. Be a great case for all of you technical mets/history buffs. New chapter in the Kocin book? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Look at this swath! Man just brutal for here in NNE haha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Yep, just about perfect across for the deformation band across NNE Looks decent up here too! What are your thoughts for NNE Sam? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattb65 Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 This is the NAM at 42 hr, right over ack, and as you can see the wind vector for most of E MA is basically due N which IMO would mean a flip to snow even if it's 33-35 at the surface, and it's really really heavy commahead snow so high rates. I'd guess a 1-5" based on this run depending on how close to the coast for E MA and the coastal plain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Man just brutal for here in NNE haha Hey you know VT really well...how is this looking for the NEK And northern NH? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattb65 Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Stupid question maybe......Does anyone start as snow on the NAM? GC, NW CT, Hills probably are all snow imo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 I want to say that the Nam is a little overdone on precip, I think we will see this get scaled back some on future runs, But it would be incredible if this held.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Hey you know VT really well...how is this looking for the NEK And northern NH? 4-7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 GC, NW CT, Hills probably are all snow imo. That was my inlcination based on earlier reading. How about as you head east? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 I want to say that the Nam is a little overdone on precip, I think we will see this get scaled back some on future runs, But it would be incredible if this held.. To what degree is rina (rip) impacting the moisture in it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 It will be interesting to see how the next few runs of the sref's handle the qpf. My guess is they are scaled back from the wet dream NAM. Either way somebody in SNE is getting a ton of snow on Halloween weekend. Crazy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Those qpf totals are staggering.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 I want to say that the Nam is a little overdone on precip, I think we will see this get scaled back some on future runs, But it would be incredible if this held.. I was thinking that too but even the GFS was showing impressive QPF amounts like this, sure the area is not as massive as the NAM but it's crazy how the NAM has become more wet rather than dry. Normally you see the NAM back off a bit, although that could still happen with later runs today. Anyways, even if you shave off 0.50'' you're still looking at a whopping! Win-win here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJHUB Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Precip type on the nam via wunderground looked decent to the PVD-BOS corridor thru hrs 40-50. might squeeze a few inches in the Konk/Attleboro if im lucky. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 even folks inside of 128 have many hours of good backside snows...perhaps a good chunk of the event actually. Does the fact that I am further north of Boston...about 20 miles help at all? I am just west of 95 and even further west of 128... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 4-7 NNH gets into the moisture stream...NVT does not. Verbatim NAM is 4-7 NNH and 2-5 NVT. The track to ACK is good for us historically but only if it moves north and not east of there. If it made it up to Portland we'd be hammered but it heads ENE from ACK. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattb65 Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 That was my inlcination based on earlier reading. How about as you head east? I actually think the weenie NAM p-type thing on wunderground might not be too bad, except the far eastern areas that show snow outside the ORH hills would probably start as rain or a mix to start imo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zeus Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 I actually think the weenie NAM p-type thing on wunderground might not be too bad, except the far eastern areas that show snow outside the ORH hills would probably start as rain or a mix to start imo. That looks promising to push east pretty quickly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 To what degree is rina (rip) impacting the moisture in it? Rina may be playing some roll in the hefty qpf, Those were factors from a couple of days ago that i think was not on the table at the time as well as the storm other then the "KING" having it, That may be something to watch going forward is how much of Rina's remnants get involved Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Continuous and glorious priapism. http://asp1.sbs.ohio-state.edu/fous/ETA/FOUS61.KWNO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Does the fact that I am further north of Boston...about 20 miles help at all? I am just west of 95 and even further west of 128... yes. any distance N and W will help. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmanmitch Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Absolutely gorgeous run of the NAM for Berkshires as it gets us into the heavy QPF. Very sharp gradient between PSF and just NW of ALB. Looking very similar to 1/12/11 when Berks got smoked under a 3"+ per hour meso band while just NW of ALB got screwed. This would probably start off as 33-34 wet snow for an hour or two before switching to 30-31 and +SN, quite possibly +TSSN. A foot or more looking like a good bet around here if this solution comes to fruition. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Those qpf totals are staggering.. I'm thinking about how awesome it'd be to take my kayak out for a paddle early Sunday morn. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 One sick arse band! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 The NAM does jackpot NW CT into the Berks and ene into sw NH. Other areas get a sh*tload, but that seems to be the "best" area on the NAM. I also think there might be another QPF max closer to the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 I was thinking that too but even the GFS was showing impressive QPF amounts like this, sure the area is not as massive as the NAM but it's crazy how the NAM has become more wet rather than dry. Normally you see the NAM back off a bit, although that could still happen with later runs today. Anyways, even if you shave off 0.50'' you're still looking at a whopping! Win-win here Yeah Paul, Rina may be playing a roll in this hence the hefty qpf, You also have to factor that the water is still very warm over the baroclinic zone so thats also a pump source as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 One sick arse band! Looks like a dong Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 this was a given! NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...STORM UPDATE...WE WILL WAIT TO EVALUATE THE ENTIRE 12Z MODEL GUIDANCE SUITE BEFOREMAKING ANY CHANGES. HOWEVER...BASED ON PRELIMINARY EVALUATIONSTHERE IS A GOOD CHANCE THAT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS INTERIORSOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WILL NEED TO BE INCREASED WITH THE AFTERNOONPACKAGE. WIND AND COASTAL FLOOD HEADLINES MAY BE ISSUED IN THEAFTERNOON PACKAGE. MUCH MORE COMING THIS AFTERNOON AFTER ALL THEDATA IS EVALUATED. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 DS might get just south of BOS on this run, but low level lift from 700mb to 900mb is insane. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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