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October 29/30 Snowstorm Disco - II


Baroclinic Zone

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This is the NAM at 42 hr, right over ack, and as you can see the wind vector for most of E MA is basically due N which IMO would mean a flip to snow even if it's 33-35 at the surface, and it's really really heavy commahead snow so high rates. I'd guess a 1-5" based on this run depending on how close to the coast for E MA and the coastal plain.

post-1511-0-83935600-1319812590.png

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I want to say that the Nam is a little overdone on precip, I think we will see this get scaled back some on future runs, But it would be incredible if this held..

I was thinking that too but even the GFS was showing impressive QPF amounts like this, sure the area is not as massive as the NAM but it's crazy how the NAM has become more wet rather than dry. Normally you see the NAM back off a bit, although that could still happen with later runs today.

Anyways, even if you shave off 0.50'' you're still looking at a whopping!

Win-win here :thumbsup:

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That was my inlcination based on earlier reading. How about as you head east?

I actually think the weenie NAM p-type thing on wunderground might not be too bad, except the far eastern areas that show snow outside the ORH hills would probably start as rain or a mix to start imo.

post-1511-0-58310500-1319813166.png

post-1511-0-01288000-1319813183.png

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I actually think the weenie NAM p-type thing on wunderground might not be too bad, except the far eastern areas that show snow outside the ORH hills would probably start as rain or a mix to start imo.

post-1511-0-58310500-1319813166.png

post-1511-0-01288000-1319813183.png

That looks promising to push east pretty quickly.

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To what degree is rina (rip) impacting the moisture in it?

Rina may be playing some roll in the hefty qpf, Those were factors from a couple of days ago that i think was not on the table at the time as well as the storm other then the "KING" having it, That may be something to watch going forward is how much of Rina's remnants get involved

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Absolutely gorgeous run of the NAM for Berkshires as it gets us into the heavy QPF. Very sharp gradient between PSF and just NW of ALB. Looking very similar to 1/12/11 when Berks got smoked under a 3"+ per hour meso band while just NW of ALB got screwed. This would probably start off as 33-34 wet snow for an hour or two before switching to 30-31 and +SN, quite possibly +TSSN. A foot or more looking like a good bet around here if this solution comes to fruition.

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I was thinking that too but even the GFS was showing impressive QPF amounts like this, sure the area is not as massive as the NAM but it's crazy how the NAM has become more wet rather than dry. Normally you see the NAM back off a bit, although that could still happen with later runs today.

Anyways, even if you shave off 0.50'' you're still looking at a whopping!

Win-win here :thumbsup:

Yeah Paul, Rina may be playing a roll in this hence the hefty qpf, You also have to factor that the water is still very warm over the baroclinic zone so thats also a pump source as well

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this was a given! Snowman.gif

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...STORM UPDATE...WE WILL WAIT TO EVALUATE THE ENTIRE 12Z MODEL GUIDANCE SUITE BEFOREMAKING ANY CHANGES. HOWEVER...BASED ON PRELIMINARY EVALUATIONSTHERE IS A GOOD CHANCE THAT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS INTERIORSOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WILL NEED TO BE INCREASED WITH THE AFTERNOONPACKAGE. WIND AND COASTAL FLOOD HEADLINES MAY BE ISSUED IN THEAFTERNOON PACKAGE. MUCH MORE COMING THIS AFTERNOON AFTER ALL THEDATA IS EVALUATED.

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