dryslot Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 I was thinking that, too. The winds on the SE coast should be phenomenol. This is gonna fook some places up. We still have 75% oak leaves out at my house 1000 feet up. Add snow (maybe pasty 6-8"? Maybe more?) and decent wind... = trouble.... make that Trouble There are still a lot of trees with leafs still on here even though we are past peak, I'm thinking power outages are going to be of great concern.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 This will be one of the more dynamic storms we can remember...esp in terms of impact. I suspect it will be one of the more challenging ones to forecast as well. To what degree (no pun intended) do you anticipate front end rain to impact things? It seems that BOX is expecting it to be a fairly siginficant factor for most areas. What a fun thing for those in ORH/NE CT--anticpation of the change to snow, subsequent paste, and a decent breeze to boot. Shift the focus of that combination to the left of the continuum as you head west and the east as you go right. Meanwhile, lugged the snowblower to the end of the drive. Will put the barn doors on at lunch. Prep will be done. 33.4/29 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 This will be one of the more dynamic storms we can remember...esp in terms of impact. this is unbelievable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 looks good at 21hrs.. a tad west it seems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Lifechanging storm..everyone remember that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 I'm looking at the mean qpf and the .5" line almost is back into BTV..are those because of a few skewed members? Well they are a little nw like I said, but it seemed to stabilize a bit. Could be a few weenie members. It's still a crushing for nrn CT up into ORH hills and even Ray. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Looks like btwn the BM and ACK on the sref Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 this is unbelievable. I know...lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 There are still a lot of trees with leafs still on here even though we are past peak, I'm thinking power outages are going to be of great concern.. Leaves are no longer an issue here. I think the impact in GC will be limited to whether we can get heavy snow. The winds wil certainly be manageable. I'd feel good from points in western Hampshire County south. North of there expect an enjoyable albeit more modest event. Of cousre, we'll know more in a few hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 SREF snow probs target a deformation area from SE NY and into NW CT, western mass on up into nrn ORH hills and sw NH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman21 Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Waking up and looking at the BOX snow map is a huge blow...wow. Well people have been complaining about them being conservative. If the WFOs were following the strict warning criteria, I figured advisories for all of CT except for maybe the southern southern county zones. Guess they are all using the early season snowfall as a reason to bend the rules a bit as OKX and BOX have mentioned it in their AFDs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
codfishsnowman Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 I have a really hard time believing we will get even a couple inches here on the valley floor no matter what the track, while there is a good cool air mass in place, it isnt like dewpoints are going to fall into the teens or anything later today and tonight. For the record we had some wet snowflakes here in se forest park with no accum and there was always at least a little rain mixed in...but first flakes did fly last night. I do believe the higher elevations someplace in sne might see one to two feet of snow and that has happened several times before in early and late season events...while the lowlands or valley floors just see a slushy inch or less or just a few mangled flakes. April 87, Oct 87, there was one in the early 90s too. same drill all the time...only the really higher elevations where in some places the amounts were staggering. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Waking up and looking at the BOX snow map is a huge blow...wow. They are probably going conservative until the afternoon crew comes on to assess the situation. I would expect that snow map to change considerably by 5pm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattb65 Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Waking up and looking at the BOX snow map is a huge blow...wow. Toss it. The weenie in me sees the dynamic flip happening down south even to the mid atlantic, busting all the conservative climo forecasts, and foreshadowing the historic storm as it deepens and heads up to the coast. I don't fault the forecasters for going so conservative since even with 2-5" call it puts it among the top October storms in the last 120 years. I like Will and Ryan's calls from the other thread and think there's good upside for lolli's to 18"+ in the elevated terrain where the best banding sets up. This obviously assumes the NAM/Euro hold their tracks. I'm just a weenie though so take it FWIW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 It does look like those areas I mentioned have the possibility of that deformation band. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 New NAM is coming in like last nights GFS through 24-36. Pretty sizeable shift. Unless it jobs E thoughts of early season blizzards SE of I95 may be taking a bath? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattb65 Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 SREF snow probs target a deformation area from SE NY and into NW CT, western mass on up into nrn ORH hills and sw NH. Weenie snow maps for all, congrats will, and congrats weenie ridge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 SREF snow probs target a deformation area from SE NY and into NW CT, western mass on up into nrn ORH hills and sw NH. Think We're in the money? Cold up here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zeus Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 It does look like those areas I mentioned have the possibility of that deformation band. Scotty my man I think we're in for a sloppy one. Rain until the final two hours, then a slightly heavier repeat of last night's slap-flakes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 NAM is going WAY west early, like the GEFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 New NAM is coming in like last nights GFS through 24-36. Pretty sizeable shift. Unless it jobs E thoughts of early season blizzards SE of I95 may be taking a bath? It also seems to be slower--but that might be my eyes playing tricks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted October 28, 2011 Author Share Posted October 28, 2011 Wow, the NAM is tucked in close @ 30h. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattb65 Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 I have a really hard time believing we will get even a couple inches here on the valley floor no matter what the track, while there is a good cool air mass in place, it isnt like dewpoints are going to fall into the teens or anything later today and tonight. For the record we had some wet snowflakes here in se forest park with no accum and there was always at least a little rain mixed in...but first flakes did fly last night. I do believe the higher elevations someplace in sne might see one to two feet of snow and that has happened several times before in early and late season events...while the lowlands or valley floors just see a slushy inch or less or just a few mangled flakes. April 87, Oct 87, there was one in the early 90s too. same drill all the time...only the really higher elevations where in some places the amounts were staggering. It flipped last night here in metro boston and nearly immediately started accumulating on cars and non-paved surfaces FWIW at a temp of 33-34 and the rates were not that heavy at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 New NAM is coming in like last nights GFS through 24-36. Pretty sizeable shift.Unless it jobs E thoughts of early season blizzards SE of I95 may be taking a bath? You're right. It's ugly. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 looks similar to the 6z gfs..maybe a tad less amplified Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boston-winter08 Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 should get the boot east at 36 hours, or much of eastern mass will be raining Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 should get the boot east at 36 hours, or much of eastern mass will be raining I think it is--seems to be starting east at 33. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterLand Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 repeat of Boxing Day storm...not good so far Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
amarshall Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Weenie snow maps for all, congrats will, and congrats weenie ridge. Almost all... Quincy in the screwzone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Wow, the NAM is tucked in close @ 30h. Torcha roosky You're right. It's ugly. . If you overlay last nights GFS at 0z for the NAM it's a dead ringer. Same exact location. So either the american models are smoking the same crack, or the others will cave west and warmer. Still looks good for all of those that could expect such an early season snow! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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