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October 29/30 Snowstorm Disco - II


Baroclinic Zone

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LOL. I'm pretty sure the general public won't be able to escape the hype. Fox 25 will probably pre-empt the World Series tonight.

They are all probably breathlessly working on their graphics, titles and theme music now.

Fall Blitz!

October Surprise!

Pumpkin Punisher!

Foliage F&cker! <------------------ :lmao:

Autumn Awesomeness!

That would be awesome

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Killington

Thanks, has Pete chimed in on anything closer? SR opens Saturday, by Sunday it should be decent just don't know how aggressive they're going to get on trail openings.

Man the SREFs are juicy... I'll eat my hat if the .5-.75" QPF zone gets all the way to BTV.

Some of these members are really, really amped up and others are really, really flat. Look at the difference some of these have for ALB and BTV's county warning areas.

Still a decent flux in the models in terms of that more sheared type system we saw in earlier OP runs which went away.

Tonights it, 0z...really is one of the bigger runs of your lives. Most of us will probably never see a major snow on the table for October in our lifetimes.

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Man the SREFs are juicy... I'll eat my hat if the .5-.75" QPF zone gets all the way to BTV.

Some of these members are really, really amped up and others are really, really flat. Look at the difference some of these have for ALB and BTV's county warning areas.

Everything is....I think the euro gives me the least qpf and it still gives me like 1.25.

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I normally don't copy and paste these but here's a good one from NWS in Albany.

POWERFUL WINTER LIKE STORM WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST ON SATURDAY AND AFFECT THE REGION THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT AS IT MOVES QUICKLY NORTHEAST. MODELS ARE GENERALLY IN AGREEMENT THAT THIS WILL BE A HISTORIC OCTOBER SNOWSTORM FOR MUCH OF THE REGION. THE HEAVY WET SNOW WILL LIKELY PRODUCE MAJOR TO CATASTROPHIC DAMAGE TO TREES AND POWER LINES IN THE AREAS WHERE WARNINGS HAVE BEEN ISSUED AND EXTENSIVE FOLLIAGE REMAINS ON THE TREES. FOR MANY VALLEY LOCATIONS WINTER STORM WARNINGS HAVE BEEN ISSUED EVEN THOUGH THE 7 INCH SNOW CRITERIA MAY NOT BE MET...BECAUSE OF THE HIGH POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGE TO TREES AND POWER LINES. IN MANY WAYS THIS EVENT WILL BE SIMILAR TO THE OCTOBER 4 1987 STORM...BUT BECAUSE THIS STORM IS OCCURRING MORE THAN THREE WEEKS LATER...TREES ACROSS MANY HIGH TERRAIN AND NORTHERN AREAS HAVE ALREADY LOST THEIR LEAVES...AND THE POTENTIAL FOR TREE DAMAGE AND POWER OUTAGES MAY ACTUALLY BE LESS IN HIGH TERRAIN AREAS THAN IN VALLEY AND SOUTHERN LOCATIONS WHERE MOST OF THE FOLIAGE REMAINS ON THE TREES.

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12z's my favorite run of the NAM...

N @ 40kts with .85" liq equiv up through hour 42, and temps right at 32F at Logan.

unconscienable

That's the one I'm praying for, unfortunately the 18z NAM moved a tick west and pushed the cold boundary out to about 128 instead of MBY. Still have the euro giving the 128 corridor mostly snow but the more amped up solutions seem to be the likely bet at this point. Either way, I think the back end comma head could deliver a quick 2-5" for the boston area if the track ends up too far west for mostly snow. We basically can't have any east component at all to the wind because it's literally like a 10 degree jump if we're on the wrong side of the coastal front.

Wondering if any of the mets agree/disagree?

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That's the one I'm praying for, unfortunately the 18z NAM moved a tick west and pushed the cold boundary out to about 128 instead of MBY. Still have the euro giving the 128 corridor mostly snow but the more amped up solutions seem to be the likely bet at this point. Either way, I think the back end comma head could deliver a quick 2-5" for the boston area if the track ends up too far west for mostly snow. We basically can't have any east component at all to the wind because it's literally like a 10 degree jump if we're on the wrong side of the coastal front.

Wondering if any of the mets agree/disagree?

The 00z could also tick SE again... Wavers of 25 or even 50 miles are not that unheard of even at 36 hours out -

Does anyone have a product that has DPs for central NE and NYS ?

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That's the one I'm praying for, unfortunately the 18z NAM moved a tick west and pushed the cold boundary out to about 128 instead of MBY. Still have the euro giving the 128 corridor mostly snow but the more amped up solutions seem to be the likely bet at this point. Either way, I think the back end comma head could deliver a quick 2-5" for the boston area if the track ends up too far west for mostly snow. We basically can't have any east component at all to the wind because it's literally like a 10 degree jump if we're on the wrong side of the coastal front.

Wondering if any of the mets agree/disagree?

Any easterly component and the lowlands are doomed. The Euro may be on crack but I'm not sold the low is going a far NW as everyone else yet. Think the 0z tonight will deliver the near final verdict, IMO.

Back end comma WIll mentioned is the big savior for the CP?

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Thanks, has Pete chimed in on anything closer? SR opens Saturday, by Sunday it should be decent just don't know how aggressive they're going to get on trail openings.

Still a decent flux in the models in terms of that more sheared type system we saw in earlier OP runs which went away.

Tonights it, 0z...really is one of the bigger runs of your lives. Most of us will probably never see a major snow on the table for October in our lifetimes.

SR will only have rail jams open until Sunday at the earliest then probably only 1 run. Snowmaking just started and they build bases before they allow sking. I love SR for that reason.

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SR will only have rail jams open until Sunday at the earliest then probably only 1 run. Snowmaking just started and they build bases before they allow sking. I love SR for that reason.

Looks like just T2 which is a leg breaker. Hoping if they get buried they can open U Sunday Punch.

May have to take the hoof to Killington? Rime is open at 10am.

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