dan11295 Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Right now the 3-6" numbers being thrown about for 128-495 seem about right, with the potential to bust a tad low if the winds switch fast enough. This will likely be a call not able to be made until the storm in in progress though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 @ryanhanrahan @scottnogueira @capecodweather.net @bigjoebastardi @mattnoyes @bobmaxon @ryanmahue @capecodweather Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 They're trying to figure out who lives where on American before figuring out how to distribute disappointment Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 There's probably going to be multiple bands too in this setup...with the 700 low tracking south and staying fairly compact...we will see continuous regeneration of the bands most likely...kind of like 1/12. I could see a few, defintely. One real strong one looks to be just nw of the 700 low. Maybe it's one of those things with a CCB cranking ese-wnw through ern mass with a dryslot east of there above strong low level forcing in the 950-850 layer creating more bands in ern mass. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Those euro weenie maps crush nw CT to TOL and up to Will and socks..points nw. I think best banding potential (just a guess at this point) may be a bit more west, but when everything comes back east...I could see it moving further east and then one last hurrah across ern mass. Maybe secondary max west of coastal front? That also brings up the idea of any weird subsidence zones, but those are difficult to pin point. I mean, giving the banding, all the warmth and moisture thrown into this....I don't think it's ludicrous to think 15"+ for someone. Potentially. I still can't believe this. LOL, I've only read like 1/4 of the thread and you've said this like every post. It is quite impressive. Right now the 3-6" numbers being thrown about for 128-495 seem about right, with the potential to bust a tad low if the winds switch fast enough. This will likely be a call not able to be made until the storm in in progress though. Yeah, but channel 4,5, and 7 have either 3-6, or 4-8 amounts in NW CT, west of ORH, SNH, etc. I know its not their focus, but those zones will almost deffinitely exceed 6". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ice1972 Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Heh, great point actually.. I don't want to lose power for any reason. The novelty of being able to say you experience x,y,z storm runs out in about 34 seconds standing in the dark. It's like the icestorm crew - not sure what is a matter with heads when it comes to wishing on that kind of crap. All I know is I didn't like it in August with Irene....add some cold and no thanks......fingers crossed......other than that this is solid.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Yeah, but channel 4,5, and 7 have either 3-6, or 4-8 amounts in NW CT, west of ORH, SNH, etc. I know its not their focus, but those zones will almost deffinitely exceed 6". This does look a little underdone... lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bobbutts Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 @ryanhanrahan @scottnogueira @capecodweather .net @bigjoebastardi @mattnoyes @bobmaxon @ryanmahue Thanks, but 2 problems, 1 fixed above, but donno about: No people results for ryanmahue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 WBZ Boston a little more agressive Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 understatement of the year! lol This does look a little underdone... lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Those euro weenie maps crush nw CT to TOL and up to Will and socks..points nw. I think best banding potential (just a guess at this point) may be a bit more west, but when everything comes back east...I could see it moving further east and then one last hurrah across ern mass. Maybe secondary max west of coastal front? That also brings up the idea of any weird subsidence zones, but those are difficult to pin point. I mean, giving the banding, all the warmth and moisture thrown into this....I don't think it's ludicrous to think 15"+ for someone. Potentially. I still can't believe this. LOL, I've only read like 1/4 of the thread and you've said this like every post. It is quite impressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
adamrivers Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Springfield media - Ch. 40 says 3-6" for valley, 4-8" for hills.... Ch. 22 says 4-8" for valley, 6-12" for hills. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Those Nam qpf totals are ridiculous Now that's what I'm talking about! Gets the 1/2"+ QPF line up to me now. Maybe I can pull 3-6". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Modfan Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Driving around down Ginx's way and there are still ALOT of trees that are still green, never mind dropped any leaves!! That area is forked if they get any more than 5 inches of snow. Atleast in northern Windham County alot of trees have shed their leaves already. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 This does look a little underdone... lol Heavy Heavy bust WBZ Boston a little more agressive That's better then what I saw earlier. Earlier they had a jackpot of 5-6" NW of ORH. 6-10 is reasonable I guess but they should move about 5 mile se Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Now that's what I'm talking about! Gets the 1/2"+ QPF line up to me now. Maybe I can pull 3-6". Yep 5-7 here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sankaty Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 OKX has updated the grids, though the AFD/warnings haven't been issued yet. They're forecasting about 4-8 here, which seems reasonable considering the low elevation. Obviously, potential for lots more if everything breaks right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Springfield media - Ch. 40 says 3-6" for valley, 4-8" for hills.... Ch. 22 says 4-8" for valley, 6-12" for hills. I think they meant to say 6-12 for "Feeding Hills". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 You can see how just wrapped up the lows are. LOL, whoever is under that 700mb back bent front is going to get ripped a new one. If the more west solutions verify, there might be a DS getting into the I-95 corridor, but if the low is really tight...the circulation will force a band probably near that extreme low level forcing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zeus Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 YES. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Another thing...I'd say about 60% leafed here...some still 2+ weeks from coming down. Some trees still with green. A week later and it might be a non-problem. The next week or 2 has heavy heavy drop usually. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
centralmass Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 WBZ Boston a little more agressive They just updated this and backed off about 2 inches on TV Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Yep 5-7 here Look at the evolution of 500mb and the surface low. If the vort max takes the track progged, the low could end up even a few more miles west of the 18z NAM. The low is going to want to follow the best upper level divergence, coupled with the thermal gradient between the polar air inland and warm coastal waters... this will hug the coastline. Its not going to the benchmark, IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Will you thinking 8-12"+ possible from you north to Socks in general? I know there might be lolli's but just overall thinking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 i think thats because they had partly sunny yesterday for saturday and they need to break it in slowly Springfield media - Ch. 40 says 3-6" for valley, 4-8" for hills.... Ch. 22 says 4-8" for valley, 6-12" for hills. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sankaty Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Just updated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 They just updated this and backed off about 2 inches on TV People see 10" and freak out. Somehow I heard people at school talking about how we were going to get 10" and that was at 8am this morning....unless they A) check the models or B.) read a wx forum or C) Can't read, then they were clearly exaggerating what was forecasted as usual. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Perfect Storm + 20 years and snow 2011 has been awesome Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 For the non weather weenies aka general public i think they are in for a huge surprise! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Look at the evolution of 500mb and the surface low. If the vort max takes the track progged, the low could end up even a few more miles west of the 18z NAM. The low is going to want to follow the best upper level divergence, coupled with the thermal gradient between the polar air inland and warm coastal waters... this will hug the coastline. Its not going to the benchmark, IMO. Its going to follow the gradient...and the highest res models will begin to pick that up now. I can see this thing kissing ACK...with that track we got ourselves a 5-10" fluffy snowstorm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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