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October 29/30 Snowstorm Disco - II


Baroclinic Zone

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There's probably going to be multiple bands too in this setup...with the 700 low tracking south and staying fairly compact...we will see continuous regeneration of the bands most likely...kind of like 1/12.

I could see a few, defintely. One real strong one looks to be just nw of the 700 low. Maybe it's one of those things with a CCB cranking ese-wnw through ern mass with a dryslot east of there above strong low level forcing in the 950-850 layer creating more bands in ern mass.

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Those euro weenie maps crush nw CT to TOL and up to Will and socks..points nw. I think best banding potential (just a guess at this point) may be a bit more west, but when everything comes back east...I could see it moving further east and then one last hurrah across ern mass. Maybe secondary max west of coastal front?

That also brings up the idea of any weird subsidence zones, but those are difficult to pin point. I mean, giving the banding, all the warmth and moisture thrown into this....I don't think it's ludicrous to think 15"+ for someone. Potentially. I still can't believe this.

LOL, I've only read like 1/4 of the thread and you've said this like every post.

It is quite impressive.

Right now the 3-6" numbers being thrown about for 128-495 seem about right, with the potential to bust a tad low if the winds switch fast enough. This will likely be a call not able to be made until the storm in in progress though.

Yeah, but channel 4,5, and 7 have either 3-6, or 4-8 amounts in NW CT, west of ORH, SNH, etc. I know its not their focus, but those zones will almost deffinitely exceed 6".

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Heh, great point actually..

I don't want to lose power for any reason. The novelty of being able to say you experience x,y,z storm runs out in about 34 seconds standing in the dark. It's like the icestorm crew - not sure what is a matter with heads when it comes to wishing on that kind of crap.

All I know is I didn't like it in August with Irene....add some cold and no thanks......fingers crossed......other than that this is solid....

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Those euro weenie maps crush nw CT to TOL and up to Will and socks..points nw. I think best banding potential (just a guess at this point) may be a bit more west, but when everything comes back east...I could see it moving further east and then one last hurrah across ern mass. Maybe secondary max west of coastal front?

That also brings up the idea of any weird subsidence zones, but those are difficult to pin point. I mean, giving the banding, all the warmth and moisture thrown into this....I don't think it's ludicrous to think 15"+ for someone. Potentially. I still can't believe this.

LOL, I've only read like 1/4 of the thread and you've said this like every post.

It is quite impressive.

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You can see how just wrapped up the lows are. LOL, whoever is under that 700mb back bent front is going to get ripped a new one. If the more west solutions verify, there might be a DS getting into the I-95 corridor, but if the low is really tight...the circulation will force a band probably near that extreme low level forcing.

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Yep 5-7 here

Look at the evolution of 500mb and the surface low. If the vort max takes the track progged, the low could end up even a few more miles west of the 18z NAM. The low is going to want to follow the best upper level divergence, coupled with the thermal gradient between the polar air inland and warm coastal waters... this will hug the coastline. Its not going to the benchmark, IMO.

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They just updated this and backed off about 2 inches on TV

People see 10" and freak out. Somehow I heard people at school talking about how we were going to get 10" and that was at 8am this morning....unless they A) check the models or B.) read a wx forum or C) Can't read, then they were clearly exaggerating what was forecasted as usual.

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Look at the evolution of 500mb and the surface low. If the vort max takes the track progged, the low could end up even a few more miles west of the 18z NAM. The low is going to want to follow the best upper level divergence, coupled with the thermal gradient between the polar air inland and warm coastal waters... this will hug the coastline. Its not going to the benchmark, IMO.

Its going to follow the gradient...and the highest res models will begin to pick that up now. I can see this thing kissing ACK...with that track we got ourselves a 5-10" fluffy snowstorm

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