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October 29/30 Snowstorm Disco - II


Baroclinic Zone

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Yeah I noticed that too, but if you extrapolate where that nice blue color is representing >50% chance of 8" or more it looks to be surrounding you by a healthy margin in either direction. And me too, I'm really liking how things have been going. Almost thinking it's close enough to go get gas for the snowblower that I won't ginx it.

I was thinking the same. I should wait until Saturday after soccer.

I guess I can put off raking for a little while

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Lol. Seriously considering it. Of course then I need an electrician to make sure I don't burn the place down. 50% oaks here. Loaded with leaves

You are welcome to have any you want for cordwood

Lol. You can save the electrician for when you have more time. But even without wiring it, you can run extensions off it for essentials like the dvd/tv for the young'uns, coffee. Perhaps an electric heat source. You won't be able to get the well, water heater and furnace up without the electrician, but at least being able to have lights and a space heater can help with the sanity.

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I endorse Albany's warning upgrade. Also like that my p/c has 8-12" for Saturday night. Locked and loaded.

ACCUMULATIONS...4 TO 8 INCHES FOR VALLEY AREAS OF THE GREATER

CAPITAL REGION...AND SCHOHARIE VALLEY. 6 TO 12 INCHES FOR THE

MID HUDSON VALLEY...CONNECTICUT VALLEY OF SOUTHERN VERMONT...AND

VALLEYS AREAS OF LITCHFIELD COUNTY CONNECTICUT. 6 TO 12 INCHES

ACROSS ELEVATIONS GREATER THAN 1000 FEET WITH LOCALLY UP TO 15

INCHES ACROSS THE EASTERN CATSKILLS...LITCHFIELD

HILLS...BERKSHIRES...AND SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS

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yeah GFS had the same kind of look with a pretty violent looking end.

It drops like 5 or 6mb in 3 hours there...that 5h low is trying to rip a hole in the atmosphere there at the end much like Dec '05....someone may get a 2-3 hour period of +TSSN with 50-70mph gusts at the end if that happens, lol.

We'll have to track that potential...hard to say just how it plays out because it will obviously be mesoscale and involve convection.

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Even if the snow turns powdery at in the 2nd half of the storm, it won't matter much because it will just stick to the wet snow already stuck on the trees. That's actually what Dec 1992 did here..the 2nd half of that storm was powder, but it had a sticky base to accumulate onto. Plus its only going to take about 3-6" of paste to get huge power outages...so that will likely be achieved before the snow turns drier if it ever does.

True good point. It seems like 3-4 inches is when the power issues start.. So you're right

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I endorse Albany's warning upgrade. Also like that my p/c has 8-12" for Saturday night. Locked and loaded.

ACCUMULATIONS...4 TO 8 INCHES FOR VALLEY AREAS OF THE GREATER

CAPITAL REGION...AND SCHOHARIE VALLEY. 6 TO 12 INCHES FOR THE

MID HUDSON VALLEY...CONNECTICUT VALLEY OF SOUTHERN VERMONT...AND

VALLEYS AREAS OF LITCHFIELD COUNTY CONNECTICUT. 6 TO 12 INCHES

ACROSS ELEVATIONS GREATER THAN 1000 FEET WITH LOCALLY UP TO 15

INCHES ACROSS THE EASTERN CATSKILLS...LITCHFIELD

HILLS...BERKSHIRES...AND SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS

Do you feel that the Monadnocks are in a prime spot for this storm, Will? I notice we're over 1" QPF on the 18z NAM, but it seems as if we might not get quite as much as the NW CT hills and the Berkshires. Do you think the heavy banding will make it this far north as the NAM shows?

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Even if the snow turns powdery at in the 2nd half of the storm, it won't matter much because it will just stick to the wet snow already stuck on the trees. That's actually what Dec 1992 did here..the 2nd half of that storm was powder, but it had a sticky base to accumulate onto. Plus its only going to take about 3-6" of paste to get huge power outages...so that will likely be achieved before the snow turns drier if it ever does.

Heh, great point actually..

I don't want to lose power for any reason. The novelty of being able to say you experience x,y,z storm runs out in about 34 seconds standing in the dark. It's like the icestorm crew - not sure what is a matter with heads when it comes to wishing on that kind of crap.

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Do you feel that the Monadnocks are in a prime spot for this storm, Will? I notice we're over 1" QPF on the 18z NAM, but it seems as if we might not get quite as much as the NW CT hills and the Berkshires. Do you think the heavy banding will make it this far north as the NAM shows?

If all else fails as you wonder about this, just remind yourself "I could still be in Dobbs Ferry, I could still be in Dobbs Ferry, I could still be in Dobb"

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Do you feel that the Monadnocks are in a prime spot for this storm, Will? I notice we're over 1" QPF on the 18z NAM, but it seems as if we might not get quite as much as the NW CT hills and the Berkshires. Do you think the heavy banding will make it this far north as the NAM shows?

Its impossible to say if you or the other areas will get more. Banding can be quirky...it tries to set up west early on, but as everything collapses toward the extreme deepening upper low, the banding will want to shift eastward with time...we probably won't know until right before the storm...all we can say is that someone in the interior will probably get lucky with the banding and really clean up....who that might be is anyone's guess at this point. Anywhere from monadnocks, to orh hills, to berkshires to litchfield hills is certainly a possibility.

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Heh, great point actually..

I don't want to lose power for any reason. The novelty of being able to say you experience x,y,z storm runs out in about 34 seconds standing in the dark. It's like the icestorm crew - not sure what is a matter with heads when it comes to wishing on that kind of crap.

Tip/Will/any met...what are we talking about in terms of RN / SN line on the 18z nam verbatim? seems like it pushed west a bit relative to 12z again

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