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October 29/30 Snowstorm Disco - II


Baroclinic Zone

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Yup the Oaks are still fairly loaded with leaves..and considering they comprise about 80% of the trees in my hood..we might be in trouble..Other types are completely leafless

I had oak branches just about touching the ground this morning with 3.5" of snow. Can't imagine what 10" would do.

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yes

Interesting scenario in that we should be clear enough to proficiently radiate through 1 or 2 am, prior to high thin veil.. Denser cap cloud arrives near dawn and it may very well be around 29-33F across a good chunck of the region right up to I-95...

Low solar doesn't lend to moderating an onsetting N drift to the air mass... The MOS guidance AND the FRH never get the wind veered more than 03 at Logan, then backs it N.... This is not sufficient to transport ocean contamination much west of Arlington Heights/Winchester -Beverly... Waltham to KRAY is my bet for the coastal boundary as it is setting up, but then it immediately begins collapsing SE as the storm bombs and the super geostrophic vector is nearly cross-isobaric.

In other words, I don't think I agree given modeling with their thoughts for I95.

My own call - taken fwiw - is that the snow is less wet as is being emphasized for the 2nd half of the event in the interior, where most 2-meter analysis combined with the critical thickness levels are so darn cold, and that it is snowing sooner where they have rain.

We'll see... Either way I like that they heavily emphasized the impact and damage potential because that's paramount for this system's threat type.

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MET snow cats are 8 for just about everyone in the interior of SNE up to LCI including ORH and BDL. BOS even gets a 6.

Looks like Gary Gray just signed up here. There's a blast to the past. :snowman:

didn't think you were old enough to remember him. His Jan 96 discussions were epic both in detail and in revealing his personality. Gary, are you there?! come to the NE thread.

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Great great disco from HAyden today. Thankfully he was on shift.

Only thing I don';t know about is the bolded if we go powder

CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT HEAVY WET SNOW WILL AFFECT INTERIOR SOUTHERN

NEW ENGLAND. THEREFORE...THE WINTER STORM WATCH WILL BE UPGRADED TO

A WARNING FOR A GENERAL 6 TO 12 INCHES OF WET SNOW. THE HIGHEST

SNOWFALL TOTALS ARE MOST LIKELY IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN. WITH MANY

LEAVES STILL ON THE TREES AND THE WET NATURE OF THE SNOW...TREE

DAMAGE AND POWER OUTAGES ARE EXPECTED. THIS IS A SERIOUS SITUATION

AND HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE AN AREA OF WIDESPREAD POWER

OUTAGES...ESPECIALLY WITH THE GUSTY WINDS THAT ARE EXPECTED TO

DEVELOP EVEN IN THE INTERIOR.

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didn't think you were old enough to remember him. His Jan 96 discussions were epic both in detail and in revealing his personality. Gary, are you there?! come to the NE thread.

I was at LSC in '96. Definitely old enough. :oldman:

NAM is going to hit you and I hard. +SN with -8 to -9C 850s. lol. We could be talking awesome snow growth in that deformation band.

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The thing I hate about those maps is that they don't allow for 1-2 day totals like the qpf ones. Very limitiing. The ones postied are 00z sunday, so anything before then is excluded.

Yeah I noticed that too, but if you extrapolate where that nice blue color is representing >50% chance of 8" or more it looks to be surrounding you by a healthy margin in either direction. And me too, I'm really liking how things have been going. Almost thinking it's close enough to go get gas for the snowblower that I won't ginx it.

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Warmer on the 18z NAM. Kind of a clear trend I think aside of the Euro. More climatological realistic areas are in the strike zone, S&E of I95 will be pissing into the wind I think in terms of rain. I don't tihnk I'm buying the Euro at this stage but it's really hard to doubt the king.

Well--there was the question as to whether it was reacting to convective feed back which kept it from tucking (much like the 00z NAM did last night).

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Great great disco from HAyden today. Thankfully he was on shift.

Only thing I don';t know about is the bolded if we go powder

CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT HEAVY WET SNOW WILL AFFECT INTERIOR SOUTHERN

NEW ENGLAND. THEREFORE...THE WINTER STORM WATCH WILL BE UPGRADED TO

A WARNING FOR A GENERAL 6 TO 12 INCHES OF WET SNOW. THE HIGHEST

SNOWFALL TOTALS ARE MOST LIKELY IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN. WITH MANY

LEAVES STILL ON THE TREES AND THE WET NATURE OF THE SNOW...TREE

DAMAGE AND POWER OUTAGES ARE EXPECTED. THIS IS A SERIOUS SITUATION

AND HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE AN AREA OF WIDESPREAD POWER

OUTAGES...ESPECIALLY WITH THE GUSTY WINDS THAT ARE EXPECTED TO

DEVELOP EVEN IN THE INTERIOR.

Even if the snow turns powdery at in the 2nd half of the storm, it won't matter much because it will just stick to the wet snow already stuck on the trees. That's actually what Dec 1992 did here..the 2nd half of that storm was powder, but it had a sticky base to accumulate onto. Plus its only going to take about 3-6" of paste to get huge power outages...so that will likely be achieved before the snow turns drier if it ever does.

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