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October 29/30 Snowstorm Disco - II


Baroclinic Zone

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KEvin--what are you going to do about all your leaves????:snowman:

Well they are buried in snow today..so can't clear them..and tomorrow is too busy with soccer, 10 mile early am run and storm tracking...then neighborhood Halloweenie party starting at 3:00..so they'll sit there....however...it doesn't bother me..because I can't see them...

Plus I figure I'll be out of power for some time..so it'll give me something to do next week when the snow melts

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Well they are buried in snow today..so can't clear them..and tomorrow is too busy with soccer, 10 mile early am run and storm tracking...then neighborhood Halloweenie party starting at 3:00..so they'll sit there....however...it doesn't bother me..because I can't see them...

Plus I figure I'll be out of power for some time..so it'll give me something to do next week when the snow melts

Holy crap..you really got 1.1"? Pics?

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How do they compare to the Euro?

00zecmwfens850mbTSLPUS048.gif

The GFS ensembles tuck in a little closer to the coast. You would think the other way around given the resolution. Also, the GFS ensembles might not be able to resolve the dynamic cooling like the euro ensembles so hence they are warmer. It's a tough call. What the euro and it's ensembles do, is really intensify it and wrap it in off of NJ, but then move it ene. The GFS sort of keeps going ne closer to ACK. The GFS dynamics flip to snow close to BOS believe it or not for a good part of the storm, before finally turning over after 03z.

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The elbow track after all?

Expect that's too amped. That said, Albany was holding with the GFS after 00z run.

You should be more powdery at your lofty 1000' but I am testing the generator and filling the tanks today. We're still at least 75% leaf on the trees down here. Might get ugly for the power infrastructure.

ot: I took a drive this morning and the snow/no line from last night is amazing on Rt 2. In places there is literally white ground on one side of the road and nothing on the other.

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The GFS ensembles tuck in a little closer to the coast. You would think the other way around given the resolution. Also, the GFS ensembles might not be able to resolve the dynamic cooling like the euro ensembles so hence they are warmer. It's a tough call. What the euro and it's ensembles do, is really intensify it and wrap it in off of NJ, but then move it ene. The GFS sort of keeps going ne closer to ACK. The GFS dynamics flip to snow close to BOS believe it or not for a good part of the storm, before finally turning over after 03z.

Thanks

I'm honestly going to side with the Meso/Euro models on this one. I may very well be wrong but as has been discussed, I think the dynamic nature of this thing will lend itself better to those models rather than the coarser GFS. jmho.

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Woke up got out bed. Nah, still a dream.

Love to read these topics. Bob you gut ju-ju magic man.

Nothing to be dissapointed about. regardless of what shakes out. It's only October and will keep that in mind moving forward.

The Octobomb of 11

Chuckin 8"+ everywhere outside of 495

and this is "conservative"

NUTS !!!!!!!!!!!!

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You should be more powdery at your lofty 1000' but I am testing the generator and filling the tanks today. We're still at least 75% leaf on the trees down here. Might get ugly for the power infrastructure.

ot: I took a drive this morning and the snow/no line from last night is amazing on Rt 2. In places there is literally white ground on one side of the road and nothing on the other.

I work in Maynard which is 30mi E of my home, no snow at all.

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The GFS ensembles tuck in a little closer to the coast. You would think the other way around given the resolution. Also, the GFS ensembles might not be able to resolve the dynamic cooling like the euro ensembles so hence they are warmer. It's a tough call. What the euro and it's ensembles do, is really intensify it and wrap it in off of NJ, but then move it ene. The GFS sort of keeps going ne closer to ACK. The GFS dynamics flip to snow close to BOS believe it or not for a good part of the storm, before finally turning over after 03z.

That's an epic red flag to me. IE, the GEFS being closer to the coast. We see this periodically in the off hour runs too with jogs west.

I think it's impossible to say what this means yet as none of us that are here have seen this situation transpire before...so early in the year. Are the GEFS somehow picking up on dynamics that will cause the storm to form closer to the coast? IE, warm water and cold air clashing on the CP when it's normally out a few hundred miles? I don't know, but either the GEFS/GFS will cave east, or the regionals are going to rock west.

Rina is unwound now and that should help too, especially tonight as the m/l rocket NE. The NAM wanted to hold onto the m/l center near the Yucatan, the GFS shot it NE. GFS is probably right. Is that part of the later differences? We'll know soon.

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NAM has nearly all snow in Boston...GFS nearly all rain.

GFS keeps NE winds until 06z...the NAM makes them 020 to 360 around 00z.

But even NYC. We're talking maybe 40kt winds, heavy rain possibly going over to paste. All these guys in aviation are worried about stupid Rina and we're telling them that it's the least of their problems. Nobody has a clue.

I'm not on terminal duty, but it's a nightmare.

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This is a forecast nightmare for the cities. Wow.

Yeah to say the least. I'm pretty stoked that I am decently far W of the city in this situation. But it's going to be a total disaster as this thing develops.

To see the Euro/ens and NAM on the cooler side is here is comforting. GFS is an electric bath.

Looking forward to a few hrs of CCB ownage as the dynamics get going. Should be fun.

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