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October 29/30 Snowstorm Disco - II


Baroclinic Zone

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What is the BUFKIT showing...the one that Wiz just posted. I don't know how to read that...

I didn't get to see what he had....I think it was lift in the atmosphere..which will be through the roof in all areas. You aren't in a bad spot for this one. It will start as rain, but maybe go to snow after 00z?

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Wow! This storm means business! From NWS Albany: WE ARE NOT GOING TO TAKE ANY CHANCES WITH THIS STORM. THERE COULD

BE A MAJOR SOCIETAL IMPACT ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF THE FCST

AREA. LEAVES ARE ON THE TREES IN THE VALLEYS /ESPECIALLY FROM THE

CAPITAL DISTRICT SOUTH/...AND ACROSS SOME OF THE HILLS. 3 TO 6

INCHES OF HEAVY WET SNOW COULD BE VERY PERILOUS BRINGING DOWN

NUMEROUS LIMBS AND POWER LINES. WE HAVE TRIED TO EMPHASIZE THIS IN THE

WATCH STATEMENT ! POTENTIALLY...THERE COULD BE NUMEROUS POWER

OUTAGES. DESPITE NOT HITTING THE 7 INCH OR GREATER CRITERIA...WE

FEEL THIS WATCH IS NECESSARY DUE TO THE POTENTIAL SOCIETAL IMPACT.

THE BEST LOW AND MID LEVEL FGEN ON THE NAM/GFS MAY IMPACT THE

CAPITAL REGION SOUTH AND EAST SAT PM/SAT NIGHT WITH SNOW RATES

EXCEEDING 1 INCH AN HOUR.

WE ALSO STARTED THE WATCH EARLIER AT NOONTIME EVERYWHERE. THERE

ARE SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH ONSET OF THE PCPN WITH THE GFS A

LITTLE FASTER THAN THE NAM. BOTTOM LINE...ANY RAIN/SNOW MIX SHOULD

QUICKLY TURN TO SNOW BASED ON THE WET BULB/EVAPORATIVE COOLING.

THE NAM TRIES TO HANG ONTO TO THE DRY WEDGE A LITTLE LONGER WITH

THE RETREATING COLD CANADIAN ANTICYCLONE ACROSS QUEBEC. THE LOW

LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE QUICKLY MOVES TOWARDS THE SRN PERIPHERY OF

THE FCST AREA IN THE MORNING INCREASING THE UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION

FOR THE RAIN/SNOW MIX TO START. THE TRACK OF COASTAL LOW GOES FROM

NEAR THE DELMARVA REGION AT 1800 UTC...TO JUST EAST OF CAPE COD AT

0600 UTC/SUN. THE SFC WAVE GOES THROUGH RAPID CYCLOGENESIS DURING

THIS STRETCH WITH THE 06Z/GFS HAVING A 988 HPA LOW NEAR CAPE

COD...18 HRS EARLIER WE HAVE A 1008 HPA LOW NEAR HATTERAS !

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I didn't get to see what he had....I think it was lift in the atmosphere..which will be through the roof in all areas. You aren't in a bad spot for this one. It will start as rain, but maybe go to snow after 00z?

Is 6-10'' a decent call at this point? I know what the models show but it's just so hard to believe.

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I didn't get to see what he had....I think it was lift in the atmosphere..which will be through the roof in all areas. You aren't in a bad spot for this one. It will start as rain, but maybe go to snow after 00z?

Obviously, I want a ton of snow. But with this storm being in October, I am just pumped to see how it all plays out...it will be pretty intense.

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