dryslot Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 gfse out yet? hopefully they are not trending further west. The op has not finished running yet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisrotary12 Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 It's October. I know. I own a calender..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 The Nam is my only hope in PVD metro oh one can wish. Its all on the Dr at this point to pick sides, Nam most win, GFS and EMA is what I would expect in EMA for an october storm rain and wind Pretty hard to get a huge snow in eastern MA in October or early November. Happens maybe 1 time every 30 or so years (ending 11/15). Euro will be the king again I think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 yea we brought this up last night. Pretty good match. Yup which is the earliest 6"+ on record at BDL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 I'm wary of the NAM a little just because the SREF mean is a little warmer ...closer to the GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 yea we brought this up last night. Pretty good match. I had 8 -9 inches of paste from that in Vernon. Remember it well. Lost power too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisrotary12 Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Biggest euro run of our lives. haha Edit: October Lives. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Pretty hard to get a huge snow in eastern MA in October or early November. Happens maybe 1 time every 30 or so years (ending 11/15). Euro will be the king again I think. And again and again and again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 It's 12:30 and 36.5 degrees on the hill with solid snowcover lol. Can someone text me updates please. On my way to a sales call in Clinton ..Ryan I know you said you could but Scooter, Phil..whomever has my # shoot me texts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJHUB Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Pretty hard to get a huge snow in eastern MA in October or early November. Happens maybe 1 time every 30 or so years (ending 11/15). Euro will be the king again I think. I wouldn't expect any 6+ snows for Eastern MA but 4-5 might be doable if the NAM was right. and its been about 24 years since 87' so we are due I guess lol. Euro is huge who it sides with will the combo will be tough to argue with unless it shows a crazy scenario. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 It's possible my longitude will do some weird things...like having Joe rip S+ and me rain for a time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 It's possible my longitude will do some weird things...like having Joe rip S+ and me rain for a time. I'm thinking 2-5" just outside 128.. I mean just. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattb65 Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 This is somewhat OT but that 84 hr GFS panel is interesting at 500 mb, the actual low ends up a good deal OTS but I could easily see that one ending up being much closer than currently modeled. GFS digs the s/w much deeper than the euro but it keeps a neutral tilt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
danstorm Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Heading to Ridgefield for this one ... 3 mi. S of I-84 in W Ct... thinking we're almost all snow, but glop could be a factor... also worried about cleanup in the wake. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Heading to Ridgefield for this one ... 3 mi. S of I-84 in W Ct... thinking we're almost all snow, but glop could be a factor... also worried about cleanup in the wake. Good place to be. I feel pretty good about the arc from Ridgefield to Hartford (esp. west/north suburbs) to Tolland barring a continued shift west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bairn Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 It's possible my longitude will do some weird things...like having Joe rip S+ and me rain for a time. Hi all, I do alot of lurking here as I have limited formal meteorological educating, but a shout out to Tip is in order as he posted on Oct 11th on the possibility of snow in late October, early November. I am in absolute awe of that call. regards, bairn Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
danstorm Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Good place to be. I feel pretty good about the arc from Ridgefield to Hartford (esp. west/north suburbs) to Tolland barring a continued shift west. I think we get into the def band towards the back half but I'm a bit concerned about poor ratios in the first half. Would prefer to be 20 miles or so north... but I do have 600 ft. elevation. I'm thinking 6-10 but leaning higher. What is going to happen to all these trees??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Hi all, I do alot of lurking here as I have limited formal meteorological educating, but a shout out to Tip is in order as he posted on Oct 11th on the possibility of snow in late October, early November. I am in absolute awe of that call. regards, bairn Trust Tip as he IS a Meteorologist. . . . If you don't believe me, it says so on his shirt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 I think we get into the def band towards the back half but I'm a bit concerned about poor ratios in the first half. Would prefer to be 20 miles or so north... but I do have 600 ft. elevation. I'm thinking 6-10 but leaning higher. What is going to happen to all these trees??? No kidding... I have some trees that are fully green here in the Valley. Until yesterday the lowest low I had was like 36 or something. I have you guys in 6-12. Hard to go much more than that since what we're talking about is such an exceptionally rare event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
danstorm Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 No kidding... I have some trees that are fully green here in the Valley. Until yesterday the lowest low I had was like 36 or something. I have you guys in 6-12. Hard to go much more than that since what we're talking about is such an exceptionally rare event. Yeah, my dad is trying to sell the house... our deck got fooked by Irene (to the point of needing total replacement) and I don't think we can bear much more property damage. May I ask... what is the vibe in the utilities/transportation sector? Do they know just how damaging this could (probably should) be? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 No kidding... I have some trees that are fully green here in the Valley. Until yesterday the lowest low I had was like 36 or something. I have you guys in 6-12. Hard to go much more than that since what we're talking about is such an exceptionally rare event. What do you think for me and MPM? Don't sugar coat it, I can handle the truth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheCloser24 Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 The 12z UKMET looks to be east and not hugging the coast so much as the GFS. Isn't the UKMET a precusor as to what the EURO will look like? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 What do you think for me and MPM? Don't sugar coat it, I can handle the truth. May I chime in, for you 10-16. MPM has QPF issues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Just looking at the mid levels on the GFS....a crushing for the Pete and MPM. I endorse this. If all but far western areas get rain, then we don't get jinxed by winter shooting the load early. Silver lining post. I'm kind of thnking that a good hit now will provide a cushion shoud there be any drought in November. LOL. If the GFS were still way off-shore everyone would say it's the SE bias. LOL--so true! Alright, test running a second call: One thing I like about your maps is that there are overlapping amounts. I get such a kick on maps that have contours that read 3-5 and the next one 5-7 as if there won't be areas in between. Oh, I like your maps when they show me getting a lot of snow, too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 May I chime in, for you 10-16. MPM has QPF issues. Steve, what are your thoughts for us? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 The 12z UKMET looks to be east and not hugging the coast so much as the GFS. Isn't the UKMET a precusor as to what the EURO will look like? You mean east of the prior UK run? Where had it been? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zachary485 Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Newbie trying to follow here......With the ticks west, what are impact thoughts for the Whites in NH? Thanks in advance!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 May I chime in, for you 10-16. MPM has QPF issues. LOL. You'd love it up here today Ginxxx. Holding the snow despite sunny skies, windy. Full on Winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boston-winter08 Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 The 12z UKMET looks to be east and not hugging the coast so much as the GFS. Isn't the UKMET a precusor as to what the EURO will look like? If I'm looking at the correct Ukie (which i think it is because it appears to be initialized at 12z FRI), the Ukie is way east with a track 200-250 miles SE of the Cape edit: that was 00z, 12z not out on plymouth yet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 http://www.twisterdata.com/index.php?prog=forecast&model=GFS&grid=3&model_yyyy=2011&model_mm=10&model_dd=28&model_init_hh=12&fhour=48¶meter=SNOWIN&level=SURFACE&unit=none&maximize=n&mode=singlemap&sounding=n&output=image&view=large&archive=false Feet and feet for all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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