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October 29/30 Snowstorm Disco - II


Baroclinic Zone

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The Nam is my only hope in PVD metro oh one can wish. Its all on the Dr at this point to pick sides, Nam most win, GFS and EMA is what I would expect in EMA for an october storm rain and wind

Pretty hard to get a huge snow in eastern MA in October or early November. Happens maybe 1 time every 30 or so years (ending 11/15).

Euro will be the king again I think.

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Pretty hard to get a huge snow in eastern MA in October or early November. Happens maybe 1 time every 30 or so years (ending 11/15).

Euro will be the king again I think.

I wouldn't expect any 6+ snows for Eastern MA but 4-5 might be doable if the NAM was right. and its been about 24 years since 87' so we are due I guess lol. Euro is huge who it sides with will the combo will be tough to argue with unless it shows a crazy scenario.

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This is somewhat OT but that 84 hr GFS panel is interesting at 500 mb, the actual low ends up a good deal OTS but I could easily see that one ending up being much closer than currently modeled. GFS digs the s/w much deeper than the euro but it keeps a neutral tilt.

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Heading to Ridgefield for this one ... 3 mi. S of I-84 in W Ct... thinking we're almost all snow, but glop could be a factor... also worried about cleanup in the wake.

Good place to be. I feel pretty good about the arc from Ridgefield to Hartford (esp. west/north suburbs) to Tolland barring a continued shift west.

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It's possible my longitude will do some weird things...like having Joe rip S+ and me rain for a time.

Hi all, I do alot of lurking here as I have limited formal meteorological educating, but a shout out to Tip is in order as he posted on Oct 11th on the possibility of snow in late October, early November. I am in absolute awe of that call. regards, bairn

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Good place to be. I feel pretty good about the arc from Ridgefield to Hartford (esp. west/north suburbs) to Tolland barring a continued shift west.

I think we get into the def band towards the back half but I'm a bit concerned about poor ratios in the first half. Would prefer to be 20 miles or so north... but I do have 600 ft. elevation.

I'm thinking 6-10 but leaning higher.

What is going to happen to all these trees???

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Hi all, I do alot of lurking here as I have limited formal meteorological educating, but a shout out to Tip is in order as he posted on Oct 11th on the possibility of snow in late October, early November. I am in absolute awe of that call. regards, bairn

Trust Tip as he IS a Meteorologist.

. . . If you don't believe me, it says so on his shirt.

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I think we get into the def band towards the back half but I'm a bit concerned about poor ratios in the first half. Would prefer to be 20 miles or so north... but I do have 600 ft. elevation.

I'm thinking 6-10 but leaning higher.

What is going to happen to all these trees???

No kidding... I have some trees that are fully green here in the Valley. Until yesterday the lowest low I had was like 36 or something.

I have you guys in 6-12. Hard to go much more than that since what we're talking about is such an exceptionally rare event.

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No kidding... I have some trees that are fully green here in the Valley. Until yesterday the lowest low I had was like 36 or something.

I have you guys in 6-12. Hard to go much more than that since what we're talking about is such an exceptionally rare event.

Yeah, my dad is trying to sell the house... our deck got fooked by Irene (to the point of needing total replacement) and I don't think we can bear much more property damage.

May I ask... what is the vibe in the utilities/transportation sector? Do they know just how damaging this could (probably should) be?

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No kidding... I have some trees that are fully green here in the Valley. Until yesterday the lowest low I had was like 36 or something.

I have you guys in 6-12. Hard to go much more than that since what we're talking about is such an exceptionally rare event.

What do you think for me and MPM? Don't sugar coat it, I can handle the truth.

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Just looking at the mid levels on the GFS....a crushing for the Pete and MPM.

I endorse this.

If all but far western areas get rain, then we don't get jinxed by winter shooting the load early. Silver lining post.

I'm kind of thnking that a good hit now will provide a cushion shoud there be any drought in November. :)

LOL. If the GFS were still way off-shore everyone would say it's the SE bias.

LOL--so true!

Alright, test running a second call:

One thing I like about your maps is that there are overlapping amounts. I get such a kick on maps that have contours that read 3-5 and the next one 5-7 as if there won't be areas in between.

Oh, I like your maps when they show me getting a lot of snow, too. :)

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The 12z UKMET looks to be east and not hugging the coast so much as the GFS. Isn't the UKMET a precusor as to what the EURO will look like?

If I'm looking at the correct Ukie (which i think it is because it appears to be initialized at 12z FRI), the Ukie is way east with a track 200-250 miles SE of the Cape

edit: that was 00z, 12z not out on plymouth yet

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