mattb65 Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Winds are off the charts on this for phil, holy sh*t Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Just looking at the mid levels on the GFS....a crushing for the Pete and MPM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJHUB Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 The Nam is my only hope in PVD metro oh one can wish. Its all on the Dr at this point to pick sides, Nam most win, GFS and EMA is what I would expect in EMA for an october storm rain and wind Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 It's October. Think BOX upgrades at 4PM? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJHUB Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Biggest euro run of our lives. haha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Think BOX upgrades at 4PM? Yeah probably. Might trim back Bristol county. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Just looking at the mid levels on the GFS....a crushing for the Pete and MPM. Yeah no kidding. The exceptionally tight thermal gradient means someone gets absolutely smoked. I feel pretty good about my backyard now. My biggest question mark is Ginx's area down through HVN. I wouldn't be surprised with a sloppy inch or 10" in those areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 If all but far western areas get rain, then we don't get jinxed by winter shooting the load early. Silver lining post. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 GFS always does this ..starts too far east corrects too far west and then the last 2-3 runs comes back east. 18z and 00z will be bac to about whee the Euro has been LOL. If the GFS were still way off-shore everyone would say it's the SE bias. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 do you have a snow map yet? Yeah no kidding. The exceptionally tight thermal gradient means someone gets absolutely smoked. I feel pretty good about my backyard now. My biggest question mark is Ginx's area down through HVN. I wouldn't be surprised with a sloppy inch or 10" in those areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 LOL. If the GFS were still way off-shore everyone would say it's the SE bias. GFS is fine right where its at right now......... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Previous map: Alright, test running a second call: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Blowing and drifting snow in late oct..Northern plains like Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 If the GFS nudging west continues for another run or two this will end up being a historic storm but in areas that have seen significant early season snows at times. The GFS is scaring me, be interesting to see if the Euro rolls west. The RGEM went WAY west compared to the 0z and is roasty too. I think everything hinges on the Euro. If it holds, I'd consider--but mute--the western shifts here. If it nudges, well then I think serious weight needs to be lent to the GFS/NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 I'm thinking the final outcome is like the euro the other day..just se of ACK. Maybe the 12z goes east or holds firm, but that's my gut. In which case, a crushing for the interior in general. However, there will be little nuances perhaps like screw zones and jackpot areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Total QPF for the storm on the GFS...looks like some 2'' plus areas? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 I think the GFS is too warm imo. Side more with NAM thermal profile I think...but not totally. Scott, best Guess here at 2k and east slope? Need to make some moves here at the site if it looks like a decent snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Scott, best Guess here at 2k and east slope? Need to make some moves here at the site if it looks like a decent snow. Like what? Deciding to tie back the hair or not? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Yeah no kidding. The exceptionally tight thermal gradient means someone gets absolutely smoked. I feel pretty good about my backyard now. My biggest question mark is Ginx's area down through HVN. I wouldn't be surprised with a sloppy inch or 10" in those areas. you think I84 is pretty much the gradient? S and E of it sees less and N and W of it sees ALOT? i recently moved to CT so still learning the microclimates and all, etc.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Yeah no kidding. The exceptionally tight thermal gradient means someone gets absolutely smoked. I feel pretty good about my backyard now. My biggest question mark is Ginx's area down through HVN. I wouldn't be surprised with a sloppy inch or 10" in those areas. My climo agrees, all or nothing, although right now I'd lean like Phils said somewhere in between NAM and GFS. going to pull a Jerry and say antecedant day says , heavy heavy incoming. These wobbles west and East are always the final determing outcome. As I mentioned last night with such a tight thermal ribbon it will come down to a nowcast situation. Either way anyone West of ECT and 30 mile N of RT95 as it cuts thru CT should get crushed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Like what? Deciding to tie back the hair or not? Like moving bunks of lumber, heavy equipment. Man work so you probably wouldn't understand. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Blowing and drifting snow in late oct..Northern plains like there's no snow out there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Scott, best Guess here at 2k and east slope? Need to make some moves here at the site if it looks like a decent snow. I would think 8-12" easily at 2K and possible where you are. Could very well see higher amounts there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Like moving bunks of lumber, heavy equipment. Man work so you probably wouldn't understand. Just tie 2 pony-os together if you're worried about them breaking in the wind and losing your pony Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 gfse out yet? hopefully they are not trending further west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 I would think 8-12" easily at 2K and possible where you are. Could very well see higher amounts there. Thanks Scott. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Like what? Deciding to tie back the hair or not? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
QVectorman Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Analog storm Nov. 11, 1987. Matches CT Rain's map in places. Pretty good analog and some nice swaths of heavy snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 My climo agrees, all or nothing, although right now I'd lean like Phils said somewhere in between NAM and GFS. going to pull a Jerry and say antecedant day says , heavy heavy incoming. These wobbles west and East are always the final determing outcome. As I mentioned last night with such a tight thermal ribbon it will come down to a nowcast situation. Either way anyone West of ECT and 30 mile N of RT95 as it cuts thru CT should get crushed. Yup... makes sense to me. I struggled with you guys and down into HVN. I think I have you straddling 6-12 and 3-6 but I expect it will go one way or the other. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Analog storm Nov. 11, 1987. Pretty good match and a some nice swaths of heavy snow yea we brought this up last night. Pretty good match. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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