CT Rain Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 GFS is awfully tucked in... would like Euro to be east of ACK please. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 kevins call for up to 20 inches in spots may be spot on! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Not bad. I think Ryan's "above 84 comment is right on. In Mass--does this look like Pike/128 deal or a Pike/495 deal for great snows? Inside 128 and maybe even outside for a bit the problem with a more tucked in solution is that winds may be a bit too much out of the east. The BL warmth is definitely an issue on that track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 We are getting there... near the Cape now. Let's tuck it in just a little closer to BOS for us far interior folks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Ginx may flip to pingers/rain while IJD and NYC is snowing. Warm air gets sucked in for areas east. low-res products i have at 03z has 925 0C isotherm moving all the way west to ~84 it looks like...curling ne near orh up to NH seacoast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Gosh...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Just as wet as the NAM! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattlacroix4 Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Wow, GFS really destroys Maine! It looks like it slows down in the GOM and throws back a huge DF band. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 1" of qpf in ALB on the new GFS. Tucked in a bit closer by 42. Rain E Mass... blizzard for CT River Valley by that point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 low-res products i have at 03z has 925 0C isotherm moving all the way west to ~84 it looks like...curling ne near orh up to NH seacoast. Yeah I think GFS is going to cause BL problems in many places. Even back here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 LOL, it has a Boxing Day look at 700mb. It is similar to the NAM, but warmer, so I think we may be able to shave some warmth off with the GFS. However, I'm still watching out for a 2 part QPF max and screw zone somewhere. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bboughton Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 The GFS ruins everything for Eastern MA. That makes BOS all rain, no? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 GFS always does this ..starts too far east corrects too far west and then the last 2-3 runs comes back east. 18z and 00z will be bac to about whee the Euro has been Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 LOL, it has a Boxing Day look at 700mb. It is similar to the NAM, but warmer, so I think we may be able to shave some warmth off with the GFS. However, I'm still watching out for a 2 part QPF max and screw zone somewhere. It definitely has the sfc low and 700/850 lows a bit west. Enough to cause some issues. But I think a NAM/GFS blend is reasonable... though watch Dr. No... if it's west like the GFS I'll get a bit nervous. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattb65 Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Well I'm hoping the GFS is wrong. It's a good deal warmer in the mid levels, probably because it keeps a more east component to the wind than the NAM. It's the difference between the 850 low tucking up to the tip of LI on the GFS vs going over ACK on the NAM. It could obviously go either way at this point. see NAM vs GFS at 42 below. GFS NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan11295 Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Looks to be a very tough call for Metrowest here. Guess it comes down to whether you believe the GFS or NAM. Of course theere is still the potential for a slight shift to the W., although I do not epect any major shifts at this point. May very well be a very sharp E-W gradient in E Mass ala Dec '92. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Just as wet as the NAM! Yes, yes I am Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 The GFS ruins everything for Eastern MA. That makes BOS all rain, no? no, it flips eventually. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 850's @ -4c and 925's @ 0c here.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 The GFS ruins everything for Eastern MA. That makes BOS all rain, no? Easily most of the time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Wow back here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 It definitely has the sfc low and 700/850 lows a bit west. Enough to cause some issues. But I think a NAM/GFS blend is reasonable... though watch Dr. No... if it's west like the GFS I'll get a bit nervous. I think the GFS is too warm imo. Side more with NAM thermal profile I think...but not totally. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 I think the GFS is too warm imo. Side more with NAM thermal profile I think...but not totally. 12zNAM/0zEURO blend is my pick until I see the rest of this suite Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 This is a perfect CT river valley storm. Cold air in lowest 1500 ft can rocket down the valley from the north with ripping northerlies and no downsloping. Weeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeee Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisrotary12 Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 I thought I left the rain/snow line when I moved from Brockton to Lowell. This thing is following me. Hoping(and expecting) to stay all snow here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 I think the GFS is too warm imo. Side more with NAM thermal profile I think...but not totally. Yes and the coarse resolution probably brings the warmth a bit too far inland. That said I don't want this to go any further west than the GFS. It can stop here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 I think the GFS is too warm imo. Side more with NAM thermal profile I think...but not totally. i think it's probably similar to what we just went through - NAM proved a bit too cold but GFS was too warm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 I thought I left the rain/snow line when I moved from Brockton to Lowell. This thing is following me. Hoping(and expecting) to stay all snow here. It's October. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 It's a good deal warmer in the mid levels, probably because it keeps a more east component to the wind than the NAM. It's the difference between the 850 low tucking up to the tip of LI on the GFS vs going over ACK on the NAM. It could obviously go either way at this point. see NAM vs GFS at 42 below. GFS NAM If the GFS nudging west continues for another run or two this will end up being a historic storm but in areas that have seen significant early season snows at times. The GFS is scaring me, be interesting to see if the Euro rolls west. The RGEM went WAY west compared to the 0z and is roasty too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 i think it's probably similar to what we just went through - NAM proved a bit too cold but GFS was too warm. Agreed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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