Baroclinic Zone Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Sorry, been away for a while. Getting back up to speed. Looks like a monster of a storm incoming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Jim Cantore will set up shop on Mt Tolland. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 well there will be some surprises. be interesting to me to see how much qpf gets wasted on the front end. probably more in sne than up here, but we'll see. That's a good point and will play into totals obviously. I'm happy to see that the call for western Franklin is for "snow likely with a chance of rain in the afternoon". So, I guess they have the odds on having a snow-start or at least minimal rain involvment. Albany's AFD is a very good read--I expect they will expand their watches this afternoon. Of note, they have this little tidbit: "WILL TILT MORE TWRD THE GFS AS THE 00UTC ECMWF JOINED THAT CAMP". Sorry, been away for a while. Getting back up to speed. Looks like a monster of a storm incoming. Yes indeedy. By the way--there's a title your supposed to use for this courtesy of Mike's GYX AFD (I think that's where it's from). I think it has something to do with "pumpkin thrasher" or something liek that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 The nominated name for this thread is "Thumpin the Pumpkin" from Arnold124. But I wouldn't want to suggest anything that would mess with your tremendous juju Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 This looks ridiculous for 90% of SNE away from the beaches. I'm pretty speechless. This is how Oct 1986 happens...feet of Mass Pike closing cement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Sorry, been away for a while. Getting back up to speed. Looks like a monster of a storm incoming. you da man.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 95-96 had an early start....snow in November in Philly. And an early established pattern of coastal storms. We have a late summer early fall pattern of high impact high qpf events. How many of them have been coastals? I know we have had a lot of closed lows coming out of the midwest. This could be our pattern for a while until we get a midwinter break, then back into it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Jim Cantore will set up shop on Mt Tolland. Lol. I cant' believe you got screwed on yesterday's snow! You'll be making up for it tomorrow, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Rina was shredded, but her moisture is racing ne, will the deep tropical moisture be drawn into the storms circulation ahead of the deep trough? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJHUB Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Box snowfall map Can't get 2 inches 2 1 mile east of 95.nice little start to winter for the western areas though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Rina was shredded, but her moisture is racing ne, will the deep tropical moisture be drawn into the storms circulation ahead of the deep trough? yes that's what i'd love to know.....it looks like a MLC is racing toward Florida (SW fl) i want to know of any interaction Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 also i understand the GFS does a poor job of forecasting /accounting for dynamically cooling induced BL temps. Which would seem to be why they may torch more than other models at this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Long day at work, but looking forward to the weekend. R. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Box snowfall map Can't get 2 inches 2 1 mile east of 95.nice little start to winter for the western areas though. My enthusiasm will spike if/when Albany honks this afternoon. HWO THERE IS A CHANCE OF A MODERATE TO HEAVY ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL ON SATURDAY. IF CONFIDENCE INCREASES...THEN A WINTER STORM WATCH. WILL BE ISSUED LATER TODAY From AFD THE GFS DUMB GUY SNOW OUTPUT IS 1-4 INCHES NORTH...10-15 IN HIGHER TRRN OF VT/MA/NY AND 6-8 ON VLY FLOORS. YES THESE ARE WINTER EQ AND THURSDAYS EVENT IT WAS ADVERTISING 4-8 INCHES AND MOST AREAS SAW 1-3. ITS NAM COUNTER PART IS MUCH FURTHER SOUTH...WITH 1-2 IN CATSKILLS AND 8 IN LITCHFIELD I think I'm the "dumb guy". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 GFS ensembles go over ACK. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CarverWX Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Bob, Scott what are your thoughts for the eastern part of MA? Can you see this being mostly rain or does it have the possibility to bust hard with snow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 GFS ensembles go over ACK. coastal is there truth that GFS has probs accounting for dynamic cooling induced BL cooling Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 GFS ensembles go over ACK. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 GFS ensembles go over ACK. Yuck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 GFS ensembles go over ACK. Oh man... 36 more hours to trend? Maybe I can coat the ground. That means there are some members that are pretty far west. It would be wild if this ends up like that ECM run a few days ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 coastal is there truth that GFS has probs accounting for dynamic cooling induced BL cooling Well the GFS doesn't have as good a resolution as the euro or nam so sometimes it does not account for mesoscale things like dynamic cooling. But, I don't think you'll see much over se mass. It's just way too early in the season for this. Maybe in the final 3-4 hrs you will. perhaps a slushy inch or two then, but this is late October. Just way too early to have substantial snow down there. Also, the GFS creeping closer is something to think about too. Still good to have the euro on your side, but the fact the even the ensembles are so amped up is interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Oh man... 36 more hours to trend? Maybe I can coat the ground. That means there are some members that are pretty far west. It would be wild if this ends up like that ECM run a few days ago. Yeah that's what I said yesterday. We'll see! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Just pure interior SNE nudity ..everyone is naked today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Yeah that's what I said yesterday. We'll see! The elbow track after all? Expect that's too amped. That said, Albany was holding with the GFS after 00z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Just pure interior SNE nudity ..everyone is naked today KEvin--what are you going to do about all your leaves???? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 The 6z GFS is just absolutely crushing. It's incredible to see the track of the 850/700 lows. The 500 low closes off right over us. It's honestly the most perfect setup you can envision for an early season snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 The elbow track after all? Expect that's too amped. That said, Albany was holding with the GFS after 00z run. No it was just se of ACK. But I don't know. We are 36 hrs out and still the euro and ensembles didn't really budge. We might perhaps see some sort of compromise? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 To the person that asked about Plymouth to Brockton. Brockton over to Easton and Foxboro could see some good accumulations. Plymouth on the water nothing, back towards the airport some slush etc. I'm thinking today we see some of the more outlandish areas fall from the good graces of the models. IE, the areas that would be super duper historic like Plymouth, Brockton etc. IE< the storm gets more west in future runs or something else changes. It's really tough S & E of Boston to Providence this early. Re Rina. That's the m/l decoupling from the lower levels. The low level center was still over land. What you see on the satellites is the mid level center detaching and moving NE. fairly well predicting but Rina is going to be a factor in later model runs I'd bet. Now that it is coming apart at the seams and the m/l ejecting NE I'm betting whatever influence it has on the east coast we see now in the next 1-2 model runs today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 GFS ensembles go over ACK. The Nation of SW Maine approves. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 The Nation of SW Maine approves. As does the village of Webstah ACK track locks 8+ for me and you Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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