weatherwiz Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 What we are about to witness has never been witness before across New England. Snowstorms of this caliber usually occur in December/January/February. It's even quite uncommon to get something like this in the month of November! Despite this unseen occurrence ALL computer model guidance is showing a very strong coastal storm which will develop off the Carolina coast and work up the east coast and track south of southern New England to the east of the Cape and then up through the Gulf of ME. This track will place much of the region on the colder side of the storm meaning much of the precipitation will fall as snow. This means just about everyone will see snow and lots of it. Let's break down of what everyone can expect: It appears as if the first impacts of the storm will occur early to mid afternoon on Saturday. It's possible many, especially those below 1000' in elevation begin as rain, however, as the storm rapidly strengthens and we begin t lose solar radiation and temperatures at the surface cool a bit the rain will quickly change over to snow. This process could take a bit longer along the coastal plain and at certain points throughout the storm the coastal region and some inland areas could experience a mix of rain and snow and sleet. As we near evening the storm will continue to rapidly intensify and develop closed areas of low pressure at the surface and up through 700mb...possibly even 500mb as well. This is a sign of a very potent and mature system which will have vigorous lift. This storm will have a great deal of moisture as it will have a strong connection with the Gulf of Mexico as well as some Atlantic moisture as well. As the system works just off the coast we will see perhaps multiple bands of very intense snowfall with very high snowfall rates, possibly in excess of 2-3'' per hour at times. Given how there will be such intense lift involved with this system the potential will exist for thundersnow as well across the region. With a rapidly deepening surface low winds are expected to be fairly strong as well across the region, this could lead to periods of blizzard conditions across parts of the region as well. Now only will this storm produce a significant amount of snowfall across the region but it has potential to be fairly devastating as well. There are many trees across the region which are still fully leaved. With surface temperatures across many locations only in the lower 30's this will lead to a wet and perhaps heavy snow. This added weight on the trees will increase the likelihood for tree damage with downed limbs. This could run the risk for power outages across the region as well as trees/limbs could take down power lines. The storm will begin winding down overnight Saturday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 great job as always paul Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted October 28, 2011 Author Share Posted October 28, 2011 Thanks man! Will fine tune everything better tomorrow afternoon after the 12z stuff is in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mikehobbyst Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 If you have impatiens in your yard, they won't be there after this weekend. The crickets and mosquitos will be finished. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattlacroix4 Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 It would be incredible of this happens, nice work. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boston-winter08 Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 my first call, pending Dr. No of course Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted October 28, 2011 Author Share Posted October 28, 2011 This storm is going to be unprecedented for the month of October as many locations will completely shatter their all time October snowfall records. This is a system that has never been seen around this area this early in the year. It will be very strong and produce moderate to significant snowfall accumulations across much of the region along with strong winds making ways for blizzard conditions at times. Just going to keep this short and sweet and break down the details. When does the storm begin? It's possible that some locations, especially closer to the coast start off as rain or perhaps a wintry mix. If anyone does start out as rain they should quickly change over to snow within a few hours as much colder air is drawn into the region both in the lower levels of the atmosphere and at the surface. Precipitation should begin mid afternoon or so across southwestern New England and then by late afternoon just about everyone is experiencing something. What to expect during the storm? This storm will bring just about everything to the table that you would expect during a significant snow event. This storm is going to be packed with a great deal of moisture along with lift and lots of cold air to work with. During the height of the storm we can expect incredible snow rates, possibly in excess of 2-3'' per hour. Snow will accumulate rather quickly and the closer you get to the coast the more wet the snow will be in nature, this will make the snow feel rather heavy when trying to remove it. Given how this storm will have incredible lift along with a good deal of elevated instability thunder/lightning are also highly likely within this storm and the strongest bands. This is where the 2-3'' per hour snowfall rates are more likely to occur. Winds will also be very strong at times during the storm, especially along the coast and out towards far eastern MA along the Cape. Here winds could gust as high as 55-65 mph! Elsewhere wind gusts of 25-40 mph are possible. This will lead to blizzard conditions at times. Given how the snow has potential to be wet and many trees are fully leaved along with the potential for strong winds the potential is high for downed tree limbs as well as power outages. The potential does exist for widespread power outages as well across the region. The potential for flooding along the coast exists as well, especially when high tides occur. When does it end? The storm should begin winding down around midnight and be done gone by sunrise Sunday morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boston-winter08 Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 This storm is going to be unprecedented for the month of October as many locations will completely shatter their all time October snowfall records. This is a system that has never been seen around this area this early in the year. It will be very strong and produce moderate to significant snowfall accumulations across much of the region along with strong winds making ways for blizzard conditions at times. Just going to keep this short and sweet and break down the details. When does the storm begin? It's possible that some locations, especially closer to the coast start off as rain or perhaps a wintry mix. If anyone does start out as rain they should quickly change over to snow within a few hours as much colder air is drawn into the region both in the lower levels of the atmosphere and at the surface. Precipitation should begin mid afternoon or so across southwestern New England and then by late afternoon just about everyone is experiencing something. What to expect during the storm? This storm will bring just about everything to the table that you would expect during a significant snow event. This storm is going to be packed with a great deal of moisture along with lift and lots of cold air to work with. During the height of the storm we can expect incredible snow rates, possibly in excess of 2-3'' per hour. Snow will accumulate rather quickly and the closer you get to the coast the more wet the snow will be in nature, this will make the snow feel rather heavy when trying to remove it. Given how this storm will have incredible lift along with a good deal of elevated instability thunder/lightning are also highly likely within this storm and the strongest bands. This is where the 2-3'' per hour snowfall rates are more likely to occur. Winds will also be very strong at times during the storm, especially along the coast and out towards far eastern MA along the Cape. Here winds could gust as high as 55-65 mph! Elsewhere wind gusts of 25-40 mph are possible. This will lead to blizzard conditions at times. Given how the snow has potential to be wet and many trees are fully leaved along with the potential for strong winds the potential is high for downed tree limbs as well as power outages. The potential does exist for widespread power outages as well across the region. The potential for flooding along the coast exists as well, especially when high tides occur. When does it end? The storm should begin winding down around midnight and be done gone by sunrise Sunday morning. i like this...i may have to push my 4-8 back further west depending upon the SST influence, like yours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted October 28, 2011 Author Share Posted October 28, 2011 i like this...i may have to push my 4-8 back further west depending upon the SST influence, like yours Figuring out where that gradient is going to set up is a nightmare. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toad strangler Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Figuring out where that gradient is going to set up is a nightmare. Man, talk about a windfall for places like Hunter Mountain ski area this early lol. They are in the bullseye it seems. I have spent many late Octobers up there at the Ocoberfest / Beer and Wine tasting festival. Wish I was there now! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DFRI Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 NWS snowfall map as of 3:54 pm on 10-28-11 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted October 28, 2011 Author Share Posted October 28, 2011 Final call as i will be going out tonight and away tomorrow Since I will be away tomorrow and Sunday this will be my final call. Now that we are within 24-HR's of the onset of the event after reviewing latest computer model data I feel as if we have a much better idea of where we can expect the heaviest banding of snowfall to setup. Within this band as much as 10-16'' of snowfall can be expected to occur, however, elevations above 800-1000' will stand a much better shot at nearing the higher end of this range. Within this area snowfall rates of 2-3'' per hour can be expected at times...possibly even nearing 4''. Thunder and lightning are also likely as well. Not really much change elsewhere from previous forecast. Did increase totals some throughout portions of ME as well as VT/NH. Power outages along with downed limbs and trees will also be very possible due to weight of snow on trees which are still leaved and due to the potential for strong winds. Blizzard conditions will be possible at times everywhere as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 Nice map, especially the red! Big 4-6" swath, nice Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ma blizzard Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 mt.tolland local jackpot Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 mt.tolland local jackpot LOL..too far south..I'm like 13-14 miles from the Mass border Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bobbutts Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bobbutts Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 Ehh, this isn't my geographical region of expertise but will post my map from my blog here to see how it does... My guess for Boston itself is around 1" of accumulation along the water, 4" in the western most parts of the city limits. If a convectively enhanced band sets up overhead that 4" could be too low. I put my full writeup on my blog. It's lengthy and I won't post it here, although I don't think it will take much elevation to see decent snows (although elevation will help) given that it appears mesoscale banding will develop, which will allow even lower elevations to dynamically cool and switch to snow at some point. General call for SNE is 4-8" lower elevations, 6-12" above 500'. I do think upwards of 15" is possible where any heavy bands sit for extended periods of time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 my thoughts as of 10 a.m. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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