Looking Into This Winter's Future From The Past

[TheSnowman]

Posted Last Night -

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About 2.5 Hours ago, I stepped off the plane at T.F. Green Airport on what was a bit of a disastrous trip, regardless of how many good things happened. The brightest part of my trip back from Milwaukee, WI, was that I saw my breath, and heard people speaking "that 4-letter word", which only individuals that hate Snow call it. It was my last trip for the year, and the only thing on my mind was getting home to relax and catch up on some work. My dad picked me up and said "Ya....... Ya...... it's gonna Snow tomorrow night. Hope you're happy.". Snow? How could I have missed the impeding news? That is just how busy I've been with the music. I came home and Dove Head First into the Forums. Then Dove Head First into my Monster Microsoft Excel Spreadsheet that I have been expanding and re-expanding since I began doing Winter Statistics, culminating in all my reports. It was time to finish up last years data. It's bad luck to finish it before September. "What a Winter last season", I was reminded of! Top 5 All-Time for Snowfall! 88.5" as I knew. As I looked into my List ranking the Overall Best Winters of All-Time that included Every aspect of a winter season, I couldn't help but see the disappointment in last year, as it was So close to being #2 for me, only 2nd to the maybe untouchable Season of 1977-1978. Here's the Statistics to look at.

Pros -

- Only 7th Winter with 3 12" Snowstorms. Only 1947-1948 had 4.

- On my Equation devised to rank a Winter's Snow Depth, it received 5th. Behind 1977-1978, 1919-1920, 1947-1948 and 1968-1969.

- At the end of January / Beginning of February, This winter was in 1st Place for snowfall up to those dates.

- 5th Place All-Time on Total Snowfall.

- 4th Place All-Time on my "Best Winters of All-Time" Overall rating.

- Only 3rd Time 3 12" Storms occurred within 1 month.

- NEW, Greatest 8 Year Average: 2003-2004 to 2010-2011.

- NEW, Greatest 9 Year Average: 2002-2003 to 2010-2011.

- NEW, Greatest 10 Year Average: 2001-2002 to 2010-2011.

- NEW, Greatest 11 Year Average: 2000-2001 to 2010-2011.

- NEW, Greatest 12 Year Average: 1999-2000 to 2010-2011.

- NEW, Greatest 16 Year Average: 1995-1996 to 2010-2011.

- NEW, Greatest 19 Year Average: 1992-1993 to 2010-2011.

- The Last New Greatest Period Average is worth saying again, as I keep calling the poast 1992-1993 Winter Season "The Great Snow Era", and for this year to take back the average (which was lost in the 50's and 60's until last year, and is of course where the 13, 14, 15, 17, 18, and 20 year best averages exist), is a great success.

Cons -

- The Biggest issue - The Winter all but stopped dead after February 1st. It even Started Right with the 00z models of the new month taking yet Another 20" snowstorm, and This time, turning it downward. By the time the storm came, it was a 6"-12" situation.

- Had the winter not stopped so quickly and so early, who knows how high the winter could have ranked in terms of Snowfall Depth. 12" And 20".

- The Winter was Easily on track for at least 4th for Total Snowfall, and not only 4th (1947-1948 at only 91") but to be in the echelon of the 3 winters that stand alone in terms of Total Snowfall: 2004-2005 (122"), 1977-1978 (116.5"), 1995-1996 (110.75").

- Had the 12" storm in Late January been 15", it would have been the First winter with 3 15" Storms.

- Had the 12" storm in Late January been 15", it would have Easily been the First winter with 3 15" Storms within 1 month of each other.

- Had the January 11-12 Blizzard given 24" instead of 22.5", it would have been the First winter with a 24" storm and 2 Other 12" storms.

Going by my charts of the last couple of years, 10 years, 20 years, and 130 years: I would say we are in for a 33.5" Season here at KSNW. People always ask me the weather for tomorrow because they know I am a weather nut. But I always tell them, I am not a weatherman really, nor a forecaster really. I am simply one who sees patterns, puts things together, looks at the statistics that have occurred, and predict what will happen in the future, Based on what I see and see forthcoming from what I have compiled. Now it's time for you - Discuss, Discuss.

Musically and Snowily -

Cory Pesaturo "The Snowman"

www.CoryPesaturo.com

en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cory_Pesaturo

[HoarfrostHubb]

I missed this.

Cool!

[Ginx snewx]

Most epic 6 week period of any winter ever for me. 38 inches of depth broke my all time .

[TheSnowman]

Most epic 6 week period of any winter ever for me. 38 inches of depth broke my all time .

Ginx - You must be the Vote for Top 3 Year lol.

[weathafella]

To me it was top 10, nothing more, nothing less. I have the perspective of living and enjoying 1955-56, 1960-61, 1968-69, and course the great ones of the past 20 years including 1993-94 (in my top 3) and 1995-96 (in my top 5).

Last winter lost points for ending after 2/10.

[Cold Miser]

Last winter lost points for ending after 2/10.

^

This.

What a shame. It was literally a 5-6 week onslaught, and then bam. It ended. Unfortunately I can't really rate this over a long period of time as I've only lived in this area for 6 years. I think these type of ratings really only can be used if you've been at one area for a long time.

With that being said it was number 1 for my 6 years of living in this area for snow totals, but as far as longevity goes, it does not rank as high.

[codfishsnowman]

Well I always wondered what more than two feet of snow depth would look like on the level and last year I finally got to see it with a 28-32 inch average depth after the last storm 2/1. I know some places had depths up to 40 plus inches on the coastal plain. It is hard for me to imagine that as I did not know where I would have put any more snow after the last storm!

It was the most intesne five week stretch of winter weather I have ever witnessed but the abrupt end save a few minor snow events was a major let down. I figure the average snowfall for spfd at 45 inches (50 is just too high as we are in a screw zone of sorts) and last year we had 70 inches which is only two feet above normal and there were many places that were at least double to in some cases triple their seasonal averages.

But we have had a lot of good storms over the past twenty winters on the whole. Storms that have produced big snows across the entire of sne, sure many were bigger to the east and some to the west and some for everyone but even in the dud winters of the past twenty years, it still beats the lean times of the twenty years prior save just a couple big snow events feb 82 and feb 78 and apr 82.

[TheSnowman]

It's funny that 54 Hours after I posted that, a 20"-30" Blizzard hits. I was just excited 0.5"-1" the next next night that I knew about. Had NO idea a storm was even Possible 3 nights later.

[tamarack]

To me it was top 10, nothing more, nothing less. I have the perspective of living and enjoying 1955-56, 1960-61, 1968-69, and course the great ones of the past 20 years including 1993-94 (in my top 3) and 1995-96 (in my top 5).

Last winter lost points for ending after 2/10.

Location, location, location.

2010-11 was not in my top 10, closer to 15th, but that's because the big Dec-Jan storms brought 7-8" each while points south (sometimes only 20 miles south) got 2X/3X that amount.

Winters better (IMO) than 2010-11, by my then current residence (and more by overall impact than by total snowfall

:

NNJ: 57-58, 60-61, 66-67, maybe 55-56. 3 or 4 winters

BGR: None, though a share of 75-76 (moved north 1/1/76)

Ft.Kent: 75-76, 76-77, 81-82, 83-84. 4 winters

Gardiner: 86-87, 92-93, 93-94, 95-96. 4 winters

N.Sharon: 00-01, 07-08, 08-09, maybe 02-03 (mediocre snow but longest snowcover retention, due to cold.) 3 or 4 winters.

[codfishsnowman]

This is a question to all the weather experts:

What kind of pattern do we need for a big east coast snowstorm...a miller a that dumps heavy snow from the southeast all the way up the coast that burys the entire mid atlantic and most of ne...coastal plain and interiror....something like blizz of 1899?? was that a -nao/+pna?

anything like that possible this winter?