yoda Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 00z RGEM rolling in now 24 hrs (00z SAT) http://www.weatherof...ast/512_100.gif 36 hrs (12z SAT) http://www.weatheroffice.gc.ca/data/model_forecast/513_100.gif Looks warm some Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 I will probably stay up for the GFS and Euro.....you will see them tomorrow....I'm still bothered a bit by the date even if the models hammer us..... only people on weather boards eagerly predict extremely anomalous events days out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 If the NAM holds at 12z, what would you do? I know you're usually cautious (and with good reason). I think the forecast depends on whether you are forecasting for the public or not....If you aren't forecasting for the general public I think you have to hedge given the date....If you are forecasting for the public and there is consensus guidance, you probably have to mention the more extreme impacts that are possible, particularly tree limbs and branches at certain elevations...once you reach a certain elevation it is really no different than being blasted at sea level on 11/11/87 or 11/6/53 so the date is not really an excuse Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Good point! That's the problem most forecasters are facing. We're looking at climatology, which we're all taught to do, especially during this time of year. BUT snow is possible in October and there is a first for everything. You gotta be conservative to start, and wait till tomorrow and see what everything is saying. like i just pointed out we should really compare into nov anyway.. we have an 11.5" storm right around the corner. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 if i hadnt seen the nam i'd like dt's forecast a lot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 I like DT's forecast at 1st glance Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted October 28, 2011 Author Share Posted October 28, 2011 00z RGEM rolling in now 24 hrs (00z SAT) http://www.weatherof...ast/512_100.gif 36 hrs (12z SAT) http://www.weatheroffice.gc.ca/data/model_forecast/513_100.gif Looks warm some Canadian models always run warm yoder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BethesdaWX Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 I think the forecast depends on whether you are forecasting for the public or not....If you aren't forecasting for the general public I think you have to hedge given the date....If you are forecasting for the public and there is consensus guidance, you probably have to mention the more extreme impacts that are possible, particularly tree limbs and branches at certain elevations...once you reach a certain elevation it is really no different than being blasted at sea level on 11/11/87 or 11/6/53 so the date is not really an excuse How much does 1 week really matter though? The abundance of "cold" in the NH varies year by year on relative timing longer than that of 1 week. If it were over 2 days out I could see why progged soundings could be expected to fall more in line with climo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 I like DT's forecast at 1st glance if it's close a big start to the season for him...he was on this earlier than just about anyone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Canadian models always run warm yoder. I knows that Just saying anyway... GFS and UKIE should be fun runs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted October 28, 2011 Author Share Posted October 28, 2011 I think the forecast depends on whether you are forecasting for the public or not....If you aren't forecasting for the general public I think you have to hedge given the date....If you are forecasting for the public and there is consensus guidance, you probably have to mention the more extreme impacts that are possible, particularly tree limbs and branches at certain elevations...once you reach a certain elevation it is really no different than being blasted at sea level on 11/11/87 or 11/6/53 so the date is not really an excuse I agree for the most part. There's no way I'd be going all in and tweeting/facebooking about 6 to 12" etc. I'd mention the possibility of seeing some snow, with the usual areas to the N and W in line for some potential accumulations. But if the 12z runs hold, I'd ramp it up a bit, but by no means would I rip and read. if i hadnt seen the nam i'd like dt's forecast a lot. Yup. It looks reasonable at first glance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 00z RGEM at 48 -- http://www.weatheroffice.gc.ca/data/model_forecast/520_100.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 NAM has mby all snow at 16Z on Saturday plenty of qpf to fall thereafter with the best dynamics after then as well I'm scared Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 jason how much for dca? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Sheesh...NAM drops temps into the low 20's after the storm....that's a little chilly for anytime of the year 18-25f Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 How much does 1 week really matter though? The abundance of "cold" in the NH varies year by year on relative timing longer than that of 1 week. If it were over 2 days out I could see why progged soundings could be expected to fall more in line with climo. I think anything at lower elevations before Thanksgiving merits skepticism...the sample isn't very saturated with moderate/big events up to that point.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
real Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 If I was forecasting, the problem would be how do you convey to people what even a few inches of snow can do to trees that still have almost ALL of their leaves. Not like people around here have a lot of experience with that, and I am not even sure myself what the trigger is in that circumstance between a few branches down vs. widespread, tree/power damage? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 NAM has mby all snow at 16Z on Saturday plenty of qpf to fall thereafter with the best dynamics after then as well I'm scared You should be scared mitch, those UVV's as indicated on the NAM were pretty hefty with the perfect 850 low position. The shortwave was optimal on 18z but the point is you are right to be frightened haha. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BethesdaWX Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 I think anything at lower elevations before Thanksgiving merits skepticism...the sample isn't very saturated with moderate/big events up to that point.... Ok thanks. I was just curious regarding your comparison (taken verbatim) of the 11/6 and 11/11 events and that "being blasted at sea level" on those dates feature some sort of difference atmospherically to this scenario which is a fine line between too amped/far west to too far east w/ lighter precip + less dynamical cooling. I guess I misunderstood the message? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 You should be scared mitch, those UVV's as indicated on the NAM were pretty hefty with the perfect 850 low position. The shortwave was optimal on 18z but the point is you are right to be frightened haha. almost 2 days of runs off the Euro showing anywhere from 4-8", now the NAM and GFS are right there with it, what's to worry about if this was any month after OCT and before APR, it would be as close to a gimme from all the mets as we can get in these parts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 almost 2 days of runs off the Euro showing anywhere from 4-8", now the NAM and GFS are right there with it, what's to worry about if this was any month after OCT and before APR, it would be as close to a gimme from all the mets as we can get in these parts Yeah I'd agree theres a huge consensus in the general scheme of things, it would be prep the shovels, and we may still have that but were all skeptical of course man. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Yeah I'd agree theres a huge consensus in the general scheme of things, it would be prep the shovels, and we may still have that but were all skeptical of course man. well, I am skeptical, but no more or less than usual for around here, and I guess that's my point Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted October 28, 2011 Author Share Posted October 28, 2011 well, I am skeptical, but no more or less than usual for around here, and I guess that's my point Well, it's been hammered into our heads about climatology, and for good reason. But again, at some point, you gotta go all in if the models are consistent. I dunno...I guess i'm looking for any excuse why this can't happen. Maybe the GFS will crap the bed and bring us all back to reality. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Ain't nothing like being dragged by the 0z's to stay up late then wake up at 530am for a mandatory lift! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Well, it's been hammered into our heads about climatology, and for good reason. But again, at some point, you gotta go all in if the models are consistent. I dunno...I guess i'm looking for any excuse why this can't happen. Maybe the GFS will crap the bed and bring us all back to reality. even if the there is model consensus, I still think you only go all-in for west and north.....if Germantown/Gaithersburg/Leesburg get 2-3" and Alexandria gets some nonsticking flakes mixed in is it really a busted forecast given how borderline the column is?... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Well, it's been hammered into our heads about climatology, and for good reason. But again, at some point, you gotta go all in if the models are consistent. I dunno...I guess i'm looking for any excuse why this can't happen. Maybe the GFS will crap the bed and bring us all back to reality. not this run, I don't think Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 00z GFS is Amped and Juiced, just how I like it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BethesdaWX Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 00z GFS is warmer for a sure when the precip arrives, at least initially. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 00z GFS is warmer for a sure when the precip arrives, at least initially. it's gonna crash after 36 hrs, you watch(temps, that is) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BethesdaWX Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 it's gonna crash after 36 hrs, you watch(temps, that is) Never said it wouldn't, but it didn't Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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