real Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 If I was forecasting, the problem would be how do you convey to people what even a few inches of snow can do to trees that still have almost ALL of their leaves. Not like people around here have a lot of experience with that, and I am not even sure myself what the trigger is in that circumstance between a few branches down vs. widespread, tree/power damage? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 NAM has mby all snow at 16Z on Saturday plenty of qpf to fall thereafter with the best dynamics after then as well I'm scared You should be scared mitch, those UVV's as indicated on the NAM were pretty hefty with the perfect 850 low position. The shortwave was optimal on 18z but the point is you are right to be frightened haha. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BethesdaWX Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 I think anything at lower elevations before Thanksgiving merits skepticism...the sample isn't very saturated with moderate/big events up to that point.... Ok thanks. I was just curious regarding your comparison (taken verbatim) of the 11/6 and 11/11 events and that "being blasted at sea level" on those dates feature some sort of difference atmospherically to this scenario which is a fine line between too amped/far west to too far east w/ lighter precip + less dynamical cooling. I guess I misunderstood the message? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 You should be scared mitch, those UVV's as indicated on the NAM were pretty hefty with the perfect 850 low position. The shortwave was optimal on 18z but the point is you are right to be frightened haha. almost 2 days of runs off the Euro showing anywhere from 4-8", now the NAM and GFS are right there with it, what's to worry about if this was any month after OCT and before APR, it would be as close to a gimme from all the mets as we can get in these parts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 almost 2 days of runs off the Euro showing anywhere from 4-8", now the NAM and GFS are right there with it, what's to worry about if this was any month after OCT and before APR, it would be as close to a gimme from all the mets as we can get in these parts Yeah I'd agree theres a huge consensus in the general scheme of things, it would be prep the shovels, and we may still have that but were all skeptical of course man. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Yeah I'd agree theres a huge consensus in the general scheme of things, it would be prep the shovels, and we may still have that but were all skeptical of course man. well, I am skeptical, but no more or less than usual for around here, and I guess that's my point Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted October 28, 2011 Author Share Posted October 28, 2011 well, I am skeptical, but no more or less than usual for around here, and I guess that's my point Well, it's been hammered into our heads about climatology, and for good reason. But again, at some point, you gotta go all in if the models are consistent. I dunno...I guess i'm looking for any excuse why this can't happen. Maybe the GFS will crap the bed and bring us all back to reality. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Ain't nothing like being dragged by the 0z's to stay up late then wake up at 530am for a mandatory lift! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Well, it's been hammered into our heads about climatology, and for good reason. But again, at some point, you gotta go all in if the models are consistent. I dunno...I guess i'm looking for any excuse why this can't happen. Maybe the GFS will crap the bed and bring us all back to reality. not this run, I don't think Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 00z GFS is Amped and Juiced, just how I like it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BethesdaWX Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 00z GFS is warmer for a sure when the precip arrives, at least initially. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 00z GFS is warmer for a sure when the precip arrives, at least initially. it's gonna crash after 36 hrs, you watch(temps, that is) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BethesdaWX Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 it's gonna crash after 36 hrs, you watch(temps, that is) Never said it wouldn't, but it didn't Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 it's gonna crash after 36 hrs, you watch(temps, that is) BEcause of the way that low is bombing? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 BEcause of the way that low is bombing? because of the way I think hope the Low will bomb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 because of the way I think hope the Low will bomb welp, too far inland this run better luck next time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 welp, too far inland this run better luck next time I think GFS is too far west, NAM too far east. EURO to tell us whats up? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 I think GFS is too far west, NAM too far east. EURO to tell us whats up? we'll see, but I ain't waiting up to find out! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 GFS is more amped.. more BL problems for BWI and 95 belt.. however.. looks like 95 areas still get in on backlash from CCB Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 ahh there's our t back Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 we'll see, but I ain't waiting up to find out! true man, i feel like though hr 45 is nice from backlash CCB, if the low was a bit east, we'd be talking as 42 has a ton of precip, nam temps with GFS QPF and business man, when i get up at 6 ill find out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted October 28, 2011 Author Share Posted October 28, 2011 ahh there's our t back Trace? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 ahh there's our t back That thing switches over to some good snow on the backend... euro now... tell tale if the trend is NW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Trace? yeah.. not that pretty of a run for our backyards at least the clown map may print out more tho Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RTutton Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 I'd keep in mind the reliability (or lack thereof) the GFS getting this close to the event. I've generally found that under 48 it can be erratic. I'd start giving more weight to short range models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Why do you think that? Usually you find a middle road, when a decent mesoscale model like the NAM is east and the more broad global is west, you gotta look for that average. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted October 28, 2011 Author Share Posted October 28, 2011 yeah.. not that pretty of a run for our backyards at least the clown map may print out more tho Well, the only consolation would be that it's different than the NAM/SREFS and supposedly we're in the NAM's wheelhouse. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 I'd keep in mind the reliability (or lack thereof) the GFS getting this close to the event. I've generally found that under 48 it can be erratic. I'd start giving more weight to short range models. Must say I can't disagree with this post... models tend to do some erratic things 48 hours before a storm and then trend right back where they were... will be interesting to watch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Good for the higher elevations in my county. I am not driving up Grambill road in bad weather though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BethesdaWX Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Usually you find a middle road, when a decent mesoscale model like the NAM is east and the more broad global is west, you gotta look for that average. How do you know that the reason for the difference is due to synoptic/mesoscale features, rather than differences in large scale patterns over the NH? If it is the latter the GFS would handle that better, so I can't see why one necessarily applies over the other unless you can definitively determine the causation for the change. And the RGEM & SREF are west, so that puts the NAM out as an outlier. Though LWX does like the eastward track it seems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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