usedtobe Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 it seems the odds of breaking the oct record might be up from earlier. but if you miss (or dont have) the convection youre screwed right? Sure looks cold after the storm, the 28 degree min record could certainly fall Sunday night. The sounding look almost like the convective scheme might have kicked in with that kind of dry look that they get above 700 mb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BethesdaWX Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 It would be a couple of inches best case. How does that guy still collect a paycheck? If the NAM has the temp profile correct it'd be more like 2-5" assuming the ground doesn't reduce the number. Still seems overdone to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris87 Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 1319769843[/url]' post='1068697']looking at just oct is probably sort of misleading at this point.. clearly early to mid-nov pattern is closer to now than oct 1 most yrs. but even going into that period you see a lot (edit: well not a lot, bad term for this stat.. but a number) of T or 2-4 3-6 type of numbers.. not necessarily a lot of middle ground tho there is some Yeah it's just a tough call right now...I won't feel good until I see things actually changing over on Sat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DCMetroWinston Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 NAM has potential frost almost near North Carolina/South Carolina border. Hoachie Momma for the lilacs! Now, is the time for average first frost for that area. http://obsweatherguy.blogspot.com/2010/10/first-frost-almost-on-schedule.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 agreed....If you are going to shove your whole stack in, wait til tomorrow evening.... Tomorrow's 12Z run will probably start us shoving chips in epecially for the western guys but maybe for everyone providing the NAM stays with it's cold west look and the other models don't waffle. I'm surprised how wet it is given the initial low goes so far east but the 850 track is almost ideal. The 500 vort track a little less so than the last run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 That NAM is really pretty even for me in Towson when looking at temperatures and the skew's on twisterdata... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 I have not wanted to get my hopes up for anything given the time of year...it just felt silly but I am starting to pay attention now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Sheesh...NAM drops temps into the low 20's after the storm....that's a little chilly for anytime of the year Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Avdave Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Sheesh...NAM drops temps into the low 20's after the storm....that's a little chilly for anytime of the year End of the growing season Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted October 28, 2011 Author Share Posted October 28, 2011 There's no benefit to going all in right now...we're in uncharted territory. I can see what he's saying, but I agree with you as well. I mean, how long before we see this until we stop saying "it's October". If I was a LWX, I'd wait until 12z tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 DT's first guess http://www.wxrisk.co...-low-oct-28-29/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 I'm on shift tomorrow morning and have make a forecast for the lower Susquehanna valley here at the weather center here at MU tomorrow. No Sat/Sun forecasters means that my shift is usually the last 7 day forecast for the weekend. Oh boy.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris87 Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 1319770954[/url]' post='1068797']I can see what he's saying, but I agree with you as well. I mean, how long before we see this until we stop saying "it's October". If I was a LWX, I'd wait until 12z tomorrow. Yeah I'm glad I don't have to make any official forecasts! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDstorm Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 psuhoffman in the house, Zwyts staying up for the Euro, and Wes posting at 11PM.....this is getting interesting. MDstorm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted October 28, 2011 Author Share Posted October 28, 2011 Tomorrow's 12Z run will probably start us shoving chips in epecially for the western guys but maybe for everyone providing the NAM stays with it's cold west look and the other models don't waffle. I'm surprised how wet it is given the initial low goes so far east but the 850 track is almost ideal. The 500 vort track a little less so than the last run. If the NAM holds at 12z, what would you do? I know you're usually cautious (and with good reason). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowdude Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 I can see what he's saying, but I agree with you as well. I mean, how long before we see this until we stop saying "it's October". If I was a LWX, I'd wait until 12z tomorrow. Good point! That's the problem most forecasters are facing. We're looking at climatology, which we're all taught to do, especially during this time of year. BUT snow is possible in October and there is a first for everything. You gotta be conservative to start, and wait till tomorrow and see what everything is saying. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 The SREFS snow probability maps are a thing to behold. http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/SREFPROB_21z/probsnwloop.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 00z RGEM rolling in now 24 hrs (00z SAT) http://www.weatherof...ast/512_100.gif 36 hrs (12z SAT) http://www.weatheroffice.gc.ca/data/model_forecast/513_100.gif Looks warm some Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 I will probably stay up for the GFS and Euro.....you will see them tomorrow....I'm still bothered a bit by the date even if the models hammer us..... only people on weather boards eagerly predict extremely anomalous events days out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Good point! That's the problem most forecasters are facing. We're looking at climatology, which we're all taught to do, especially during this time of year. BUT snow is possible in October and there is a first for everything. You gotta be conservative to start, and wait till tomorrow and see what everything is saying. like i just pointed out we should really compare into nov anyway.. we have an 11.5" storm right around the corner. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 if i hadnt seen the nam i'd like dt's forecast a lot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted October 28, 2011 Author Share Posted October 28, 2011 00z RGEM rolling in now 24 hrs (00z SAT) http://www.weatherof...ast/512_100.gif 36 hrs (12z SAT) http://www.weatheroffice.gc.ca/data/model_forecast/513_100.gif Looks warm some Canadian models always run warm yoder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BethesdaWX Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 I think the forecast depends on whether you are forecasting for the public or not....If you aren't forecasting for the general public I think you have to hedge given the date....If you are forecasting for the public and there is consensus guidance, you probably have to mention the more extreme impacts that are possible, particularly tree limbs and branches at certain elevations...once you reach a certain elevation it is really no different than being blasted at sea level on 11/11/87 or 11/6/53 so the date is not really an excuse How much does 1 week really matter though? The abundance of "cold" in the NH varies year by year on relative timing longer than that of 1 week. If it were over 2 days out I could see why progged soundings could be expected to fall more in line with climo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 I like DT's forecast at 1st glance if it's close a big start to the season for him...he was on this earlier than just about anyone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Canadian models always run warm yoder. I knows that Just saying anyway... GFS and UKIE should be fun runs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted October 28, 2011 Author Share Posted October 28, 2011 I think the forecast depends on whether you are forecasting for the public or not....If you aren't forecasting for the general public I think you have to hedge given the date....If you are forecasting for the public and there is consensus guidance, you probably have to mention the more extreme impacts that are possible, particularly tree limbs and branches at certain elevations...once you reach a certain elevation it is really no different than being blasted at sea level on 11/11/87 or 11/6/53 so the date is not really an excuse I agree for the most part. There's no way I'd be going all in and tweeting/facebooking about 6 to 12" etc. I'd mention the possibility of seeing some snow, with the usual areas to the N and W in line for some potential accumulations. But if the 12z runs hold, I'd ramp it up a bit, but by no means would I rip and read. if i hadnt seen the nam i'd like dt's forecast a lot. Yup. It looks reasonable at first glance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 00z RGEM at 48 -- http://www.weatheroffice.gc.ca/data/model_forecast/520_100.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 NAM has mby all snow at 16Z on Saturday plenty of qpf to fall thereafter with the best dynamics after then as well I'm scared Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 jason how much for dca? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Sheesh...NAM drops temps into the low 20's after the storm....that's a little chilly for anytime of the year 18-25f Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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