Avdave Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Since we seem to be stalled at 36hrs here for a minute. Defintely follows the elevation contours Matt and Wes were talking about earlier. Thanks for the map MN Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 I don't really care if it rains. It is just nice to have something to track that doesn't include 24 degree 850 temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 The surface low at 36 hrs is farther off the coast so unless it redevelops closer to the 850 low, this run probably will not be as wet as the last. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 If you're in western Loudoun you better break out the snow shovels. Man what a pattern Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 I don't really care if it rains. It is just nice to have something to track that doesn't include 24 degree 850 temps. im throwing you out of the 90-degree + tracking club Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 The surface low at 36 hrs is farther off the coast so unless it redevelops closer to the 850 low, this run probably will not be as wet as the last. seems to stall a bit and the 5H catches it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 850 low placement at 42 is wow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Snowing heavy at 18z, again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BethesdaWX Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 The surface low at 36 hrs is farther off the coast so unless it redevelops closer to the 850 low, this run probably will not be as wet as the last. If the globals are to be believed as far as temps and the over-amplification, would a track farther offshore be somewhat beneficial in keeping the 540 line somewhat more supressed? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Snowing heavy at 18z, again. and 700mb RH says much more to come Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 NAM puts the surface low much farther east, but based on the bagginess in the isobars, I suspect it will jump the surface low west on the next panel or two. Especially given the location of the 850 low. Not quite as juicy as the 18z, but still pretty wet. Looks a slight bit colder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 42 hrs. sim radar http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appcontroller?prevPage=Param&MainPage=indexℑ=&page=Param&cycle=10%2F28%2F2011+00UTC&rname=SFC-LAYER+PARMS&pname=sim_radar&pdesc=&model=NAM&area=NAMER&cat=MODEL+GUIDANCE&fcast=042&areaDesc=North+America+-+US+Canada+and+northern+Mexico&prevArea=NAMER&currKey=model&returnToModel=&imageSize=M Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Is that a CCB at hr 45? BTW, the UVV's at hr 42 are ridiculous. -15 across the I-95 corridor Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 I think NE gets the shaft on this run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Looks to be a CCB destroying the coast at 45, I can't believe it. Well we saw some continuity this run, a bit of a different pattern on this run compared to 18z compared to how the low gets caught and how the pieces phase but wow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Is that a CCB at hr 45? yeah, but that's 42 hrs sim radar only comes in 6 hr increments Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 defintiely a bit east or just quicker to move out. the 500 vort is pretty inline with the globals at this pt going from sw va basically overhead here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 total qpf through 48 hrs, some is rain, of course http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appcontroller?prevPage=Param&MainPage=indexℑ=&page=Param&cycle=10%2F28%2F2011+00UTC&rname=PRECIP+PARMS&pname=precip_p48&pdesc=&model=NAM&area=NAMER&cat=MODEL+GUIDANCE&fcast=048&areaDesc=North+America+-+US+Canada+and+northern+Mexico&prevArea=NAMER&currKey=model&returnToModel=&imageSize=M Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 The low sure is way offshore. Pointing the fire hose back towards the coast, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Snowing heavy at 18z, again. It starts snowing at DCA by 15Z according to the soundings with only the surface temp at 1.2 C and just above freezing at 1000 mb. . All the other layers are below freezing. By 18Z the surface temps is down to 0.5. Pretty cold run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterymix Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 The NAM now depicts 2 meter temperatures and they sure are warm, 10C near SW West Virginia/Raleigh/Chincoteague. The 850 mb temps are chilly, suggesting widespread boundary layer issues and/or snow melting on contact. Finally, at sunset on Saturday, heights crash! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 defintiely a bit east or just quicker to move out. the 500 vort is pretty inline with the globals at this pt going from sw va basically overhead here. yeah, but I don't think that's a bad thing in light of marginal temps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 oops told ya' you'll learn we've all made that mistake before Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 The NAM now depicts 2 meter temperatures and they sure are warm, 10C near SW West Virginia/Raleigh/Chincoteague. The 850 mb temps are chilly, suggesting widespread boundary layer issues and/or snow melting on contact. Finally, at sunset on Saturday, heights crash! Nice analysis. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 yeah, but I don't think that's a bad thing in light of marginal temps agree if the nam is right with overall temp profile. im surprised we get another run with it so cold at least.i dont really love the 500 vort passage but i suppose it will do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 lol @ Henry Margusity on his Facebook... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterymix Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 NAM has potential frost almost near North Carolina/South Carolina border. Hoachie Momma for the lilacs! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 agree if the nam is right with overall temp profile. im surprised we get another run with it so cold at least.i dont really love the 500 vort passage but i suppose it will do. The 500 is a little north of what I'd like. That always raised the specter of a dry slot but it will due for now. Here's the soundings for DCA at 15Z Date: 39 hour Eta valid 15Z SAT 29 OCT 11 Station: KDCA Latitude: 38.85 Longitude: -77.03 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- LEV PRES HGHT TEMP DEWP RH DD WETB DIR SPD THETA THE-V THE-W THE-E W mb m C C % C C deg knt K K K K g/kg ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SFC 1012 56 1.2 0.6 96 0.6 0.9 357 11 273.4 274.1 273.5 284.1 3.94 1 1000 148 0.4 2 16 273.6 2 950 559 -0.3 -0.4 100 0.0 -0.4 28 34 276.8 277.5 275.4 287.6 3.91 3 900 991 -1.0 -1.2 99 0.2 -1.1 57 32 280.5 281.1 277.3 291.3 3.89 4 850 1446 -2.6 -2.9 98 0.3 -2.7 71 20 283.4 284.0 278.4 293.6 3.62 5 800 1925 -4.2 -4.6 97 0.4 -4.4 98 22 286.7 287.3 279.7 296.5 3.39 6 750 2435 -3.6 -3.9 98 0.3 -3.7 145 29 292.6 293.3 283.0 303.9 3.82 7 700 2980 -4.4 -4.7 98 0.2 -4.6 170 39 297.6 298.3 285.0 309.1 3.86 8 650 3562 -6.2 -6.5 97 0.4 -6.3 191 47 302.0 302.7 286.4 313.0 3.61 9 600 4185 -9.6 -10.3 95 0.7 -9.9 207 50 305.0 305.5 286.8 314.0 2.90 10 550 4851 -14.0 -15.3 90 1.2 -14.4 213 57 307.5 307.8 286.8 314.2 2.12 11 500 5567 -19.3 -21.1 86 1.8 -19.7 213 62 309.5 309.8 286.8 314.2 1.43 12 450 6341 -25.7 -28.2 80 2.5 -26.1 217 67 310.9 311.1 286.6 313.7 0.84 13 400 7183 -31.6 -34.4 76 2.8 -31.9 211 79 314.0 314.1 287.3 315.8 0.52 14 350 8116 -37.5 -40.6 73 3.1 -37.8 203 93 318.2 318.2 288.5 319.3 0.32 15 300 9159 -45.8 -51.9 51 6.0 -46.1 207 104 320.7 320.8 289.1 321.2 0.11 16 250 10354 -51.9 218 113 328.9 17 200 11788 -54.3 226 129 346.7 18 150 13624 -54.8 233 95 375.6 19 100 16175 -59.1 239 61 413.5 TRP 0 WND 0 and 18Z.......surface temp drops to around 33 degrees. Date: 42 hour Eta valid 18Z SAT 29 OCT 11 Station: KDCA Latitude: 38.85 Longitude: -77.03 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- LEV PRES HGHT TEMP DEWP RH DD WETB DIR SPD THETA THE-V THE-W THE-E W mb m C C % C C deg knt K K K K g/kg ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SFC 1010 54 0.5 0.4 99 0.2 0.5 334 14 272.9 273.6 273.1 283.4 3.89 1 1000 135 0.2 0.2 100 0.0 0.2 343 20 273.3 274.0 273.3 283.8 3.86 2 950 545 -1.4 -1.4 100 0.0 -1.4 6 38 275.8 276.4 274.4 285.7 3.63 3 900 975 -2.1 -2.2 100 0.0 -2.1 30 34 279.3 279.9 276.3 289.4 3.62 4 850 1429 -3.3 -3.6 98 0.3 -3.4 47 26 282.7 283.3 277.9 292.5 3.46 5 800 1907 -4.2 -4.6 98 0.3 -4.4 75 17 286.6 287.2 279.7 296.4 3.40 6 750 2415 -5.0 -5.4 97 0.4 -5.1 128 21 291.2 291.8 281.8 301.2 3.42 7 700 2957 -5.6 -5.7 99 0.1 -5.7 161 35 296.3 296.9 284.1 306.9 3.56 8 650 3538 -7.2 -7.3 100 0.0 -7.2 183 46 300.8 301.4 285.7 311.2 3.41 9 600 4158 -10.7 -10.8 99 0.1 -10.7 199 50 303.8 304.3 286.2 312.5 2.80 10 550 4821 -15.9 -16.9 92 1.0 -16.2 204 49 305.2 305.6 285.7 311.1 1.85 11 500 5531 -21.3 -23.4 84 2.0 -21.8 204 54 307.0 307.2 285.6 310.8 1.16 12 450 6298 -27.2 -30.9 71 3.7 -27.8 202 67 309.1 309.2 285.8 311.3 0.65 13 400 7137 -32.8 -40.9 44 8.1 -33.6 206 76 312.4 312.4 286.5 313.3 0.27 14 350 8065 -37.9 -54.4 16 16.4 -38.8 214 86 317.6 317.6 288.1 317.9 0.07 15 300 9113 -44.0 -64.4 9 20.4 -44.6 218 99 323.3 323.4 289.8 323.4 0.02 16 250 10315 -50.3 -69.1 9 18.8 -50.6 222 108 331.3 331.3 292.1 331.4 0.01 17 200 11760 -53.1 -74.2 6 21.1 -53.5 231 102 348.6 348.6 296.3 348.7 0.01 18 150 13606 -54.8 -80.5 3 25.7 -55.2 232 92 375.7 375.7 301.5 375.7 0.00 19 100 16163 -59.3 -86.8 2 27.5 -59.7 243 70 413.1 413.1 306.9 413.1 0.00 TRP 0 WND 0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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