BTRWx Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 That is kind of funny. I never thought of that. But then again with the way this year has been with last winter, spring, summer, and fall with all the wild and weird events in the region this is the icing on the cake in a way. But good point. Winter hasn't even begun yet and we still have another 2 months for mother nature to impress again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 21z SREFs have a good amount of QPF as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted October 28, 2011 Author Share Posted October 28, 2011 if the past is any indicator, the SREFs usually hint at where the NAM is headed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 21z SREFs have a good amount of QPF as well That's no longer the issue, it's the low level temps and ho quickly the fall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BethesdaWX Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 I think the NAM is coming west this run based on the look thru hr12 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 March 41 maybe? I dont see anything in the KU Book for march 42 I was thinking about the Palm Sunday storm in late March....I think 1942....just because it was so late and it dumped a lot of snow.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 I think the NAM is coming west this run based on the look thru hr12 you'll learn Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted October 28, 2011 Author Share Posted October 28, 2011 Gonna be out till at least 10:45...I'll rely on Mitch for play by play. Maps load slow as hell on an iphone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 I'll say this, through 18 hrs I can't believe how cold the 850's are at -4C at DCA/BWI that's pretty impressive Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 I think the SREF demonstrates the problem we have here nailing down this forecast really well for people in the DC Metro. Shown here is a Non-Skewed (IE. Isotemp is vertical not skewed right like normal) temperature profile with the attached Ensembles. Also showed on here is the WBZ or Wet-Bulb Zero.. since the air is already saturated we can assume that this will be the level in which snowflakes will start to rime or melt. This combined shows us at which point above ground the melting will begin. The scale on the left side is X* 1000 ft. AGL . The problem is... instead of a either all higher above ground melting elevation or a all below freezing profile, the temperature profile during the day Saturday leads to a scenario in which any number of elevations from 4,000 to 500 ft. AGL could be the melting layer. Thus look at the graph on the left side of the picture, using the thicknesses method we can see that there is a whole range of possible hydrometers that could be present at this time (each dot is a individual ensemble). Not a good time to be a betting man in DC.. I'll post one for the end of the storm to show the change in a bit... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 I'll say this, through 18 hrs I can't believe how cold the 850's are at -4C at DCA/BWI that's pretty impressive I was actually about to post that for hr 21 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 21 hrs on the NAM it's popping a slp on southern AL/GA border that wasn't showing up at 27 hrs on the 18Z run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Avdave Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 I was thinking about the Palm Sunday storm in late March....I think 1942....just because it was so late and it dumped a lot of snow.... Good call. Yeah at the end of March. I am surprised it isnt in Kocin's book but found this on the storm http://www.erh.noaa.gov/lwx/winter/DC-Winters.htm March 29-30, 1942: The Palm Sunday Snowstorm was another seasonal late comer. Baltimore received its greatest snow in 20 years with 22 inches measured. Washington recorded 12 inches. Hagerstown recorded 22 inches in 24 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 I was actually about to post that for hr 21 the 0 line at 21 hrs is along the VA/NC border are we certain these aren't maps from 12/09? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 500mb looks pretty darn close to 18z through 24hr. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 the 0 line at 21 hrs is along the VA/NC border are we certain these aren't maps from 12/09? Still there at 27. -3c 850 line is around RIC, perhaps slightly north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Large 850 low appears at 30 -- http://mag.ncep.noaa...850_temp_ht.gif -3c 850 line nearing EZF, 0c line approaching or over RIC at 30 At 33, 0C line north of RIC. -3c line just south of DCA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 huge area of decent UVV's have developed in NC-VA on the 33 hr map http://mag.ncep.noaa...el=&imageSize=M Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 21z SREF snow probabilities http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/SREFPROB_21z/probsnwloop.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Over to snow at Leesburg by 8am, metro will be shortly thereafter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Precip. is coming in a little quicker it seems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BethesdaWX Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Boom @ hr36, a tad warmer @ 850 but not much, wetter though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Good call. Yeah at the end of March. I am surprised it isnt in Kocin's book but found this on the storm http://www.erh.noaa..../DC-Winters.htm March 29-30, 1942: The Palm Sunday Snowstorm was another seasonal late comer. Baltimore received its greatest snow in 20 years with 22 inches measured. Washington recorded 12 inches. Hagerstown recorded 22 inches in 24 hours. It definitely is in Kocin's book--- see Volume I. This is one of DC's most famous snowstorms, with more than a foot in higher elevations in the city proper and 25-30+" amounts from northern MD into State College, PA... inverted trough, with PHL and NYC getting almost all rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 H7 Small closed low over SW PA at 36hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 it almost looks like the low wants to pull ENE and not up the coast based on maps up through 36 hrs, but I guess once the 5H vort catches it, that would change (if it catches it) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Tiny closed h85 low in South Central VA at 36. -3c 850 line remains just south of DCA but north of EZF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Since we seem to be stalled at 36hrs here for a minute. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Hr. 33. 850: 0°C Ocean City, MD to Point Lookout,MD to Just N of RIC -2°C Cape May to Dover to La Plata to Fredricksburg -4°C Wilminton to Baltimore to IAD Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Boom @ hr36, a tad warmer @ 850 but not much, wetter though -5C at 850 for areas near the Mason-Dixon. About the same as 18z. Pretty darn cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Hr. 33. 850: 0°C Ocean City, MD to Point Lookout,MD to Just N of RIC -2°C Cape May to Dover to La Plata to Fredricksburg -4°C Wilminton to Baltimore to IAD Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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