ksstormhunter Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 Just pushed out my 5Z NowCast product, next 6 hours showing areas in and around KSHD/KLWB areas picking up between 3-5 inches in the next 6 hours. Uploaded data http://smartwxmodel.net Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 I'm gonna go to sleep...I think the Euro is pretty irrelevant for us at this point though I am sure 40N is paying close attention Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 I can't see earlier... but hr 24 0c 850 line is well S and E of DCA on the 00z EURO for those who care Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 I can't see earlier... but hr 24 0c 850 line is well S and E of DCA on the 00z EURO for those who care Absolutely awesome Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 basically the same as 12z ... slightly less qpf, maybe a hair warmer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 basically the same as 12z ... slightly less qpf, maybe a hair warmer Warmer where? the 850s would seem to crash quickly if they are that far S and E at 24 even if the precip is ending Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 Absolutely awesome 24 hr is 0z... the precip ends a few hrs prior to that most likely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 Absolutely awesome really does not tell us anything, its hour 12 and 18 that we need to see Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 24 hr is 0z... the precip ends a few hrs prior to that most likely. Damn Will on the other subforum said it was east and colder.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 Warmer where? the 850s would seem to crash quickly if they are that far S and E at 24 at 24 hrs the 850 line is basically identical to 12z if it's not at 18 (which it is pretty darn close but maybe a smidge west) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 Damn Will on the other subforum said it was east and colder.. it looks a bit colder up there (sne) maybe.. here it's really the same probably when factoring in a margin of error Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 at 24 hrs the 850 line is basically identical to 12z if it's not at 18 (which it is pretty darn close but maybe a smidge west) Oh well, EURO at lunchtime had some flakes to end at least Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 it looks a bit colder up there (sne) maybe.. here it's really the same probably when factoring in a margin of error Yeah down there it has the 0C 850 line over I-95 pretty much at 18 hours...maybe even a bit west of that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 Yeah down there it has the 0C 850 line over I-95 pretty much at 18 hours...maybe even a bit west of that. Does the EURO even show snow down here at all then? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 Does the EURO even show snow down here at all then? It collapses pretty good between 18z and 00z...we'd need to see the wunderground 3 hourly maps to see how much gets down to I-95. It looks like it would end as some snow...esp W of the fall line. Interior N MD elevations near PA border almost certainly gets accumulating snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 Does the EURO even show snow down here at all then? Euro/GFS blend with a sprinkling of NAM. Near 95 probably hope for a rogue superband to end tho we may mix/change earlier for conversational snow. I'd take 30-60 min of mod+ if forced. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 Does the EURO even show snow down here at all then? euro has tightened the thermal gradient in this area, its slightly warmer if you are right along 95 or east, but it is actually colder if you are 20 miles west of 95 and points west. 850s at IAD are -.02 at 12z, -2 at 18z and -4.2 at 0z. Precip is .58 from 12z to 18z and .22 after 18z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 There is always a prelude of things to come.. this Winter is going to be awesome Check out the next storm system trying to make a run for the coast in 3-4 days Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 JYO 12z: 1.7 surface, -1 850 18z 1.7 surface, -2.5 850, .57 liquid since 12z 0z: 1.4 Surface, -4.3 850, .22 liquid since 18z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nikolai Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 There is always a prelude of things to come.. this Winter is going to be awesome for some reason this is giving me images of 95-96, just the transient nature of everything juxtaposed with the strength of the system... but my analogs are still 08-09, 62-63, and 56-57 (in that order). we're in a very cold spell right now, yet we should be rather mild next week, although it appears we may go cold again soon after... wouldn't be surprised if we turn out snowier though, as the QPF of recent events has just been phenomenal... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 DMW: Westminster MD 12z: 1.5 Surface, -2.4 850 18z: 1.1 Surface, -2.7 850, .69 liquid 0z: 0.8 Surface, -4.3 850, .43 liquid another .04 after that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 for some reason this is giving me images of 95-96, just the transient nature of everything juxtaposed with the strength of the system... but my analogs are still 08-09, 62-63, and 56-57 (in that order). we're in a very cold spell right now, yet we should be rather mild next week, although it appears we may go cold again soon after... wouldn't be surprised if we turn out snowier though, as the QPF of recent events has just been phenomenal... March thru the past few months have been very wet. If the wet pattern continues this winter - it's likely that we will end up with above normal snows for the season as well as a lot of rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nikolai Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 don't know whether this was posted, but looks like the NWS increased totals Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ksstormhunter Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 06Z SmartCast, now tracking Hot Springs, VA with potential of 7.6 inches of snowfall in the next 6 hours, visibilities to 1/8 mile, and snowfall rates between 9-12Z up to 1.5" per hour. Also other areas that need to be watched are Shenendoah, KJST/KLWB as those areas can see 3" in the next 6 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterymix Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 Some mysteries solved: LARGE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN 00Z NAM AND GFS IN THE THERMO PROFILE BLOH7 AND MOST IMPORTANTLY BLO H85. KIAD 06Z SOUNDING SHOWS THAT THE GFS IS TOO WARM AND THE NAM IS TOO COLD AS EVIDENCED BY COMPARING THE MODEL SOUNDING PLOTS AT 06Z TO OBSERVED BALLOON. THIS SUPPORTS THE WIDE DISPARITY OF MODEL SNOW ACCUM EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...WITH THE NAM GIVING IAD 11 INCHES OF SNOW AND THE GFS GIVING ZERO INCHES OF SNOW. WILL BE USING THE 21Z SREF AS THE BASIS FOR THE SNOW ACCUM AND TIMING. HPC ANALYSIS SPEAKS OF A RECENT NAM UPGRADE THAT MAY BE PRODUCING A COLD BIAS IN THE MODEL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 NAM looks similar to last run.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 Did anybody notice that the NAM is trying to pop another coastal at the end of it's run? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 Did anybody notice that the NAM is trying to pop another coastal at the end of it's run? ugh Im not ready for this yet, I usually get at least another month of productivity before this starts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 Some mysteries solved: sure would have been nice if they had mentioned the NAM's bias BEFORE the event started knuckleheads Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterymix Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 sure would have been nice if they had mentioned the NAM's bias BEFORE the event started knuckleheads Maybe it is not a bias, maybe it is freaking accurate...snow is spreading like mad now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.