nj2va Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 Not sure I am following the 00z UKIE correctly. At 12 hrs, 0C 850 line is SE of DCA (just barely)... at 18 hrs its overtop of DCA... then crashes SE after That sounds similar to nam right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 LOL ukmet showing NAM esque features...... wooooooooow... weenie souls rising Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kurtstack Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 500 mb vort setup looks intriguing on GFS at 78 hours. Possible round 2? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 uk came in very cold at 850 What's your UKMET link Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 Not sure I am following the 00z UKIE correctly. At 12 hrs, 0C 850 line is SE of DCA (just barely)... at 18 hrs its overtop of DCA... then crashes SE after Any idea how much precip falls as the 850 temps crash? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 500 mb vort setup looks intriguing on GFS at 78 hours. Possible round 2? Round 2 is in December son Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 What's your UKMET link http://weather.uwyo.edu/models/fcst/ukmet.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kicking Up A Storm Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 Please, bust of the decade? I think, given time of year, no one is even going to remember or really care one way or another what some Met predicted for this storm, even if areas expecting 6 end up with nary a flurry. Sometimes the public is forgiving and is not as dumb as you may think -- everyone knows its highly unlikely and unusual for snow BEFORE Thanksgiving, much less BEFORE Halloween. Now if someone predicts 10 in January, and only 3 fall, that is a bust. This is just somewhat unchartered territory since its only snowed like 6 times in October around here since the Civil War The problems that are there for March snow storms are there for October ones, almost exactly. If Bolaris got so much heat for his 2001 bust, then it's only fair for everyone to get heat should they bust this time round.....Consistency, please. And you're kidding yourself, the hype close to Philly is incredible, if only a flurry falls after predicting several inches? Woe betide...... Seriously, how in god's name is snow going to accumulate as expected in many places? It hasn't even reached freezing for overnight lows yet! The ground is way too warm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 The problems that are there for March snow storms are there for October ones, almost exactly. If Bolaris got so much heat for his 2001 bust, then it's only fair for everyone to get heat should they bust this time round.....Consistency, please. And you're kidding yourself, the hype close to Philly is incredible, if only a flurry falls after predicting several inches? Woe betide...... Seriously, how in god's name is snow going to accumulate as expected in many places? It hasn't even reached freezing for overnight lows yet! The ground is way too warm. Why don't you look north to SNE.. Half the board was saying that last night about that entire region.. it accumulated pretty easily Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 Ukie is cold because : http://vortex.plymou...t=h24&cu=latest Low well off the coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 Any idea how much precip falls as the 850 temps crash? I think this is the 24 hr QPF map through 24 on the 00z UKIE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 Hard to buy the GFS as an outlier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 Hard to buy the GFS as an outlier. I don't know if the UKIE is mostly snow... it would seem so... but I am sure there are warm layers somewhere Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 Hard to buy the GFS as an outlier. So just getting this straight man, you are saying tough to buy it overall, or tough to consider it an outlier? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 So we still getting snow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 So we still getting snow? UKIE/NAM both show snow, and a good amount of it for you and maybe me. GFS still doing its warm ass thang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 Hard to buy the GFS as an outlier. I don't think it has to be either/or with the NAM/GFS....one is going to be more right than the other, but you could still take a blend...I would lean toward the GFS but hedge a bit toward the NAM with temp profiles....maybe 75/25.....I think with the NAM, it is believe it when we see it....We do get anomalous weird events from time to time, so you can't say no way to the NAM solution....My gut and experience tell me that most of us east of a line from ay FDK to MRB are in trouble with the initial thump....it will be real localized and elevation dependent east/south of there, but I don't dislike the idea of some energy hanging back or some sort of backlash/wraparound....The GFS may be cutting off precip too quickly....so I would say the NAM is overdone with the frontrunning thump tomorrow for the eastern locations, but the GFS may be underdone with what happens after 850's crash..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 I don't think it has to be either/or with the NAM/GFS....one is going to be more right than the other, but you could still take a blend...I would lean toward the GFS but hedge a bit toward the NAM with temp profiles....maybe 75/25.....I think with the NAM, it is believe it when we see it....We do get anomalous weird events from time to time, so you can't say no way to the NAM solution....My gut and experience tell me that most of us east of a line from ay FDK to MRB are in trouble with the initial thump....it will be real localized and elevation dependent east/south of there, but I don't dislike the idea of some energy hanging back or some sort of backlash/wraparound....The GFS may be cutting off precip too quickly....so I would say the NAM is overdone with the frontrunning thump tomorrow for the eastern locations, but the GFS may be underdone with what happens after 850's crash..... This is a great post Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 This is a great post Agreed, nicely said Matt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 Agreed, nicely said Matt. tho that spc disco is pretty bullish even further east... moved it to nowcast thread Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 Of course when I'm not in HGR is when its advantageous to be there. Don't worry Rand, it might work out in later surprise for you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 This is a great post Thanks....As you and Wes have said we need to see what is happening in Leesburg tomorrow at say 9-11 am.....the difference between the GFS and NAM in the mid to late morning timeframe in that area is pretty stark....driving rain and mid 30s with some flakes mixing in here and there or S++ and 31 with 1/4 mile visibility.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RTutton Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 At this stage I think it's best to throw out GFS and Euro (within 24 hours of event). If anything other than nowcasting, I'd say check the SREFs, possibly the NAM and the WRF (while taking it's obnoxious overamplification with a grain of salt). Other than that, look outside your window, know your elevation, get the temp and the wet bulb and pray for the best. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 Keep an eye on stations CHO and SHD...GFS has them flipping to rain within a couple hours while the NAM doesn't. NAM does flip CHO to rain by 09z, but then goes back around 12z while GFS keeps torching them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 Keep an eye on stations CHO and SHD...GFS has them flipping to rain within a couple hours while the NAM doesn't. NAM does flip CHO to rain by 09z, but then goes back around 12z while GFS keeps torching them. good idea....you probably get this since you guys have so many more early and late season events, but when I tell people they shouldn't be IMBY about this storm I don't mean to be a wet blanket....but I am just telling the truth.....I think of dozens of examples growing up here of early/late season events and how they materialize and result....we have more examples from late season, but early as well.....like Dec 1992 when Fullmug got an inch or so and 5-10 miles to his west got 16"....or DEC 5 2009 as a recent example....or DEC 2003...I just hope someone gets dumped on.....I understand if you live IAD you don't want to be screwed by 10 miles or 200'......but why not appreciate the rareness of the event whether it kills your backyard or not? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 the RUC is really really wet....there are going to be some pretty sick snowbands for someone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 good idea....you probably get this since you guys have so many more early and late season events, but when I tell people they shouldn't be IMBY about this storm I don't mean to be a wet blanket....but I am just telling the truth.....I think of dozens of examples growing up here of early/late season events and how they materialize and result....we have more examples from late season, but early as well.....like Dec 1992 when Fullmug got an inch or so and 5-10 miles to his west got 16"....or DEC 5 2009 as a recent example....or DEC 2003...I just hope someone gets dumped on.....I understand if you live IAD you don't want to be screwed by 10 miles or 200'......but why not appreciate the rareness of the event whether it kills your backyard or not? I think the NAM will end up being closer to reality as it will likely handle the convective processes that are so influential in this particular setup. It might be too cold, but I'd probably at least lean toward it. Keeping the ML centers a bit more compact and tightly wound. It will be very interesting to track. I think someone in MD above 500 feet could get surprised...maybe even to areas like IAD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 the RUC is really really wet....there are going to be some pretty sick snowbands for someone HRs 12-15 look pretty good, though the 850s are a smidge warm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 I think the NAM will end up being closer to reality as it will likely handle the convective processes that are so influential in this particular setup. It might be too cold, but I'd probably at least lean toward it. Keeping the ML centers a bit more compact and tightly wound. It will be very interesting to track. I think someone in MD above 500 feet could get surprised...maybe even to areas like IAD. SPC likes it....maybe it is too cold?....the RUC as bad as it is with thermal profiles, has the same idea as well...thumps us good and hangs back precip after 850's crash....There are going to be gradients though and in many places they will be sharp.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 HRs 12-15 look pretty good, though the 850s are a smidge warm That's not bad...esp since the RUC gets a pretty decent warm bias out in that range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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