Ian Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 Pretty much time to pick one I think. i think most are dismissing the nam... but this is super low confidence Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 Really weird to see such polar opposites... GFS probably a dusting... NAM at least 2" of snow around DCA. As Zwyts said, HUGE bust potential. Though it is snowing in CHO right now... that makes no sense looking at any model Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kicking Up A Storm Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 I will eat my shoes if Philly and the immediate suburbs see more than 1 inch. I will eat my shoes if DC sees even a coating. Laces first, too. The ground is simply too warm. The sun angle is still strong. The temperatures are marginal at best. It's simply not going to happen. Whoever mentioned March 2001 on the other page is spot on here. This is the bust of the decade coming up for those who predicted 2, 3, 4, 5 inches around the I95 Corridor...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 nothing really changes i guess. we need some hefty luck around here but weird things happen a lot these days. the gfs just makes so much more sense than the nam looking at it. GFS makes more sense cause its climo. We don't get snow here in October. Its super rare. BTW, ohleary said "00Z NAM sounding show CHO changing to snow between 11pm and midnight."... so perhaps a feather in the NAM's cap for now? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted October 29, 2011 Author Share Posted October 29, 2011 that makes no sense looking at any model Well according to Ohleary, the 0z NAM had it changing between 11 and midnight. Haven't checked the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
derecho Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 I will eat my shoes if Philly and the immediate suburbs see more than 1 inch. I will eat my shoes if DC sees even a coating. Laces first, too. The ground is simply too warm. The sun angle is still strong. The temperatures are marginal at best. It's simply not going to happen. Whoever mentioned March 2001 on the other page is spot on here. This is the bust of the decade coming up for those who predicted 2, 3, 4, 5 inches around the I95 Corridor...... Nothing worse than sun angle and still no extra hour of sun... Right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 GFS makes more sense cause its climo. We don't get snow here in October. Its super rare. BTW, ohleary said the NAM predicted changeover to SN at CHO between 11 and midnight... so perhaps a feather in the NAM's cap for now? Well it's not just October climo it looks more realistic given the features. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 Well according to Ohleary, the 0z NAM had it changing between 11 and midnight. Haven't checked the GFS. Precip is running fast IMO. Models had very little QPF thru 6z.. It's been raining for 4 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 Well according to Ohleary, the 0z NAM had it changing between 11 and midnight. Haven't checked the GFS. it was 75 there yesterday http://www.srh.noaa.gov/data/obhistory/KCHO.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 I will eat my shoes if Philly and the immediate suburbs see more than 1 inch. I will eat my shoes if DC sees even a coating. Laces first, too. The ground is simply too warm. The sun angle is still strong. The temperatures are marginal at best. It's simply not going to happen. Whoever mentioned March 2001 on the other page is spot on here. This is the bust of the decade coming up for those who predicted 2, 3, 4, 5 inches around the I95 Corridor...... Go away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 Can't believe Gfs is bring used as the model of choice a few hours before the storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 Already down to 33 at KCHO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterymix Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 The sun angle is still strong. ...in the Southern Hemisphere. In this particular hemisphere, it is seven weeks until the shortest day of the year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted October 29, 2011 Author Share Posted October 29, 2011 it was 75 there yesterday http://www.srh.noaa.gov/data/obhistory/KCHO.html They should be fine. According to Kicking, snow can't possibly stick there! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 Can't believe Gfs is bring used as the model of choice a few hours before the storm I'm leaning more towards the NAM only because gfs torching I don't feel it. Already snowing and 33 at CHO which NAM nailed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
real Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 I will eat my shoes if Philly and the immediate suburbs see more than 1 inch. I will eat my shoes if DC sees even a coating. Laces first, too. The ground is simply too warm. The sun angle is still strong. The temperatures are marginal at best. It's simply not going to happen. Whoever mentioned March 2001 on the other page is spot on here. This is the bust of the decade coming up for those who predicted 2, 3, 4, 5 inches around the I95 Corridor...... Please, bust of the decade? I think, given time of year, no one is even going to remember or really care one way or another what some Met predicted for this storm, even if areas expecting 6 end up with nary a flurry. Sometimes the public is forgiving and is not as dumb as you may think -- everyone knows its highly unlikely and unusual for snow BEFORE Thanksgiving, much less BEFORE Halloween. Now if someone predicts 10 in January, and only 3 fall, that is a bust. This is just somewhat unchartered territory since its only snowed like 6 times in October around here since the Civil War Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
derecho Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 Can't believe Gfs is bring used as the model of choice a few hours before the storm Agreed. We are already colder than expected... Once the first flakes fly in a few hours out here everyone will calm down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 Nothing worse than sun angle and still no extra hour of sun... Right? We'll be fine once we set the clocks back an hour in another week... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 Please, bust of the decade? I think, given time of year, no one is even going to remember or really care one way or another what some Met predicted for this storm, even if areas expecting 6 end up with nary a flurry. Sometimes the public is forgiving and is not as dumb as you may think -- everyone knows its highly unlikely and unusual for snow BEFORE Thanksgiving, much less BEFORE Halloween. Now if someone predicts 10 in January, and only 3 fall, that is a bust. This is just somewhat unchartered territory since its only snowed like 6 times in October around here since the Civil War This is gauranteed to be a historic storm from VA to New England. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 http://weather.unisys.com/surface/sfc_con.php?image=3p&inv=0&t=cur&expanddiv=hide_bar Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 Can't believe Gfs is bring used as the model of choice a few hours before the storm I don't think it is necessarily. But the NAM probably shouldn't be either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cast4 Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 I will eat my shoes if Philly and the immediate suburbs see more than 1 inch. I will eat my shoes if DC sees even a coating. Laces first, too. The ground is simply too warm. The sun angle is still strong. The temperatures are marginal at best. It's simply not going to happen. Whoever mentioned March 2001 on the other page is spot on here. This is the bust of the decade coming up for those who predicted 2, 3, 4, 5 inches around the I95 Corridor...... Sorry, but I just have to lol at this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 God should of made freezing at 34 degrees Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 God should of made freezing at 34 degrees Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 I will eat my shoes if Philly and the immediate suburbs see more than 1 inch. I will eat my shoes if DC sees even a coating. Laces first, too. The ground is simply too warm. The sun angle is still strong. The temperatures are marginal at best. It's simply not going to happen. Whoever mentioned March 2001 on the other page is spot on here. This is the bust of the decade coming up for those who predicted 2, 3, 4, 5 inches around the I95 Corridor...... You won't have to worry about eating your shoes. It's 37 degrees with 36 dews. I'm about 20 miles south of DCA. Lotta RAIN on tap, maybe a flurry burst Saturday afternoon as the snow shuts off. WESTERN Virginia, Maryland - That's another story entirely Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 uk came in very cold at 850 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 Not sure I am following the 00z UKIE correctly. At 12 hrs, 0C 850 line is SE of DCA (just barely)... at 18 hrs its overtop of DCA... then crashes SE after Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 God should of made freezing at 34 degrees LOL! Well, if it could snow when it's 90, it sure would make the summer heat more bearable! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 uk came in very cold at 850 partner for the nam sir. wow thats cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 Gfs is a horrible unless it's wrong Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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