EastCoast NPZ Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 Is it snowing in Winchester already? all rain in Stephens City. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Avdave Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 all rain in Stephens City. It must be getting close to switching over there, it is all snow at Harrisonburg and north some Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 it's weird it looks like it wants to go northwest of us then it just slams right across the area before resuming it's previous direction. It seems like it is a response to the development of the low along the mid atlantic coast. As the low really gets wound up it pulls everything in tighter. This pulls the vort due east towards the low before resuming a northeast movement once everything is aligned. Its a weird evolution for sure but not out of the realm of possibility. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 I bet you it is by someone at TDL for verification purposes but where and whether it is easily assessable is something I ahve no idea about. Probably a useless exercise anyway... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 all rain in Stephens City. Elevation is a biggie tonight. I'm probably close to 300 feet higher than you. And, regarding something that Wes said earlier about thundersnow, I noticed in one of the NAM surface forecasts (text version, don't remember what that's called) that it mentioned a period of thundersnow tomorrow morning. Seems to be a pretty dynamic system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted October 29, 2011 Author Share Posted October 29, 2011 I do wonder, If early tomorrow Winchester or even better Leesburg start getting S+ with thundersnow we'll probably be getting a huge hint at which solution is going to be right. I've leaned towards the GSF during most of the storm but It very well might be too warm. I guess we'll know in around 8 to 10 hours or sooner. That was going to be my bellweather as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 That was going to be my bellweather as well. Well....I hope to be ringing your bell early in the morning then Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 I do wonder, If early tomorrow Winchester or even better Leesburg start getting S+ with thundersnow we'll probably be getting a huge hint at which solution is going to be right. I've leaned towards the GSF during most of the storm but It very well might be too warm. I guess we'll know in around 8 to 10 hours or sooner. 0z NAM and 21z SREF have me feeling a bit more optimistic right now. Its getting really close range to be taking the thermal profiles of a global over a high res model. Plus, its not just the temperature profile, I think the entire evolution of the storm took a step in the right direction on the NAM and looks even more encouraging then 18z even if sensible weather results were the same. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 That was going to be my bellweather as well. I was just going to use that word in another post to Dave in his observation thread saying his reports would be our bellweather. Either great minds think alike or total weenies do. I'm not going to wait for the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 That was going to be my bellweather as well. What it is doing here early in the morning will probably say a lot for what might happen during the day down there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Avdave Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 I do wonder, If early tomorrow Winchester or even better Leesburg start getting S+ with thundersnow we'll probably be getting a huge hint at which solution is going to be right. I've leaned towards the GSF during most of the storm but It very well might be too warm. I guess we'll know in around 8 to 10 hours or sooner. I think I hear Ji running up and down throughout the hood singing to your post here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Avdave Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 I was just going to use that word in another post to Dave in his observation thread saying his reports would be our bellweather. Either great minds think alike or total weenies do. I'm not going to wait for the GFS. Will be ringing bells once things get going here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 I was just going to use that word in another post to Dave in his observation thread saying his reports would be our bellweather. Either great minds think alike or total weenies do. I'm not going to wait for the GFS. I vote for weenies... Especially you Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 I think I hear Ji running up and down throughout the hood singing to your post here. I still can't believe that both of you moved into the same development as me....hope we all get to experience another 09-10 here one day Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted October 29, 2011 Author Share Posted October 29, 2011 I was just going to use that word in another post to Dave in his observation thread saying his reports would be our bellweather. Either great minds think alike or total weenies do. I'm not going to wait for the GFS. Come on pops, stay up for the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 I was just going to use that word in another post to Dave in his observation thread saying his reports would be our bellweather. Either great minds think alike or total weenies do. I'm not going to wait for the GFS. How about a stemwinder instead of a bellwether? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 have we ever gotten a blizzard with a hurricane on a map? Have we ever got a blizzard when it was in the 90s the month before? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 I still can't believe that both of you moved into the same development as me....hope we all get to experience another 09-10 here one day maybe it starts tomorrow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 have we ever gotten a blizzard with a hurricane on a map? Have we ever got a blizzard when it was in the 90s the month before? Are either of those even correct? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 Are either of those even correct? im sure we hit 90 in sept(that was last month) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 have we ever gotten a blizzard with a hurricane on a map? Have we ever got a blizzard when it was in the 90s the month before? keep your expectations flexible....The NAM really has epic bust potential.....If you get 1-3", that would be pretty amazing for October Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 keep your expectations flexible....The NAM really has epic bust potential.....If you get 1-3", that would be pretty amazing for October they are flexible..i am excepting a storm from 1-11 inches. Ill wait to see what euro and gfs say--if they start trending colder...then 4-8 would be realistic Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 If anyone believes in the clown maps, the new NAM map brought the DC and Balt crowd back in big time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 Don't know if it goes here or the obs thread, but we are seriously close to challenging the all-time min max temp for October. 40 for DCA. 43 and dropping, and it isn't going to go up tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 im sure we hit 90 in sept(that was last month) dca didnt.. i doubt iad did. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 Don't know if it goes here or the obs thread, but we are seriously close to challenging the all-time min max temp for October. 40 for DCA. 43 and dropping, and it isn't going to go up tomorrow. yeah that came up a few days ago.. seemed like a stretch. would be kinda cool. when do we ever break those kind of records anymore? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BaltimoreWxGuy Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 If anyone believes in the clown maps, the new NAM map brought the DC and Balt crowd back in big time. The NAM never left this crowd no? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grothar of Herndon Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 have we ever gotten a blizzard with a hurricane on a map? Have we ever got a blizzard when it was in the 90s the month before? Have we had a major weather event lately where you were not 'trapped' in a commuter bus? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 dca didnt.. i doubt iad did. 88 was highest at IAD...pretty dissapointing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 The RUC was always terrible with temps. I'll leave this here to see how the HRRR does tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.