Ian Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Are the SREFs useful in this kind of situation? they should be... they have been more in line with the globals compared to the nam the last day or so Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 they should be... they have been more in line with the globals compared to the nam the last day or so Well I was more wondering like when should we start taking them more seriously instead of with a grain of salt. Inside 48 hrs? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Avdave Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Dave, I'm not Matt and think this has more dynamics than that storm if I remember correctly. That means the precip rates could be higher with this storm. Still the idea of more west and at elevation is probably the way to go. Thanks Wes. Probably more north than west though with this particular system. Will be interesting to see how the elevation plays out, makes these type of events fun in a way, more so for the folks than get the snow in some aspects. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Well I was more wondering like when should we start taking them more seriously instead of with a grain of salt. Inside 48 hrs? At like 500mb I'd take them more seriously than the NAM in the mean until it stabilizes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Well I was more wondering like when should we start taking them more seriously instead of with a grain of salt. Inside 48 hrs? INside of 84 hrs you start using them. Inside of 24, I'd believe the operational runs more than the sref because of their higher resolution. That said, they still offer information about the uncertainty of a forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Thanks Wes. Probably more north than west though with this particular system. Will be interesting to see how the elevation plays out, makes these type of events fun in a way, more so for the folks than get the snow in some aspects. I should have said more north and west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ThePhotoGuy Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Matt, do you see this being similar to the 12/5/09 event where the snow was 6 inches at Bluemount at 900' down to a trace just outside the beltway say Annadale, va?? That storm was horrible. I remember it snowing for hours and all I got was a dusting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BethesdaWX Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 I don't buy the NAM necessarily but I feel like it picks up on this stuff better than the globals. Am I just imagining that? It seems intuitive that it would given that it has better resolution. NAM is a mesoscale model so it'd make sense Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Avdave Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 any similarities to March 1942?...I don't have the K/U book handy March 41 maybe? I dont see anything in the KU Book for march 42 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 any similarities to March 1942?...I don't have the K/U book handy I didn't find a march 42 but did find a March 41. Had a somewhat similar surface track but a stronger high located almost where this one has one. The book offered no 500 since they didn't have 500h back then. There is a website that will allow you to call up old analyses from the reforecast data. Unfortunately I can't find the link. I used to have it bookmarked. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 i split the elevation stuff here http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/28379-the-mid-atlantic-members-elevation-thread/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 I didn't fine a march 42 but did find a March 41. Had a somewhat similar surface track but a stronger high located almost where this one has one. The book offered no 500 since they didn't have 500h back then. There is a website that will allow you to call up old analyses from the reforecast data. Unfortunately I can't find the link. I sued to have it bookmarked. 6 hr http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/data/composites/day_20thc/ Daily (only back to 1948) http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/data/composites/day/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 6 hr http://www.esrl.noaa...ites/day_20thc/ Daily (only back to 1948) http://www.esrl.noaa...composites/day/ Thanks, I had the one back to 1948 but not the one back into the late 1800s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Anybody care to venture a guess at how all of this works out out here west of the BR where elevations range from about 700 feet to upwards of 1000? Seems like the temp profiles I can find would suggest snow by sat morning with, seemingly, ample precip. <BR><BR>Edit: not supposed to be an elevation post. Mainly asking about being further west, maybe colder, less precip. Along those lines. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Avdave Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 I didn't find a march 42 but did find a March 41. Had a somewhat similar surface track but a stronger high located almost where this one has one. The book offered no 500 since they didn't have 500h back then. There is a website that will allow you to call up old analyses from the reforecast data. Unfortunately I can't find the link. I used to have it bookmarked. Wow that was a pretty good storm from Marc 7-8 1941. All snow in DC metro and the freezing mix down over EZF to ROA. If Im reading it right 10" of snow fell over a widespread area in that event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Dave, I'm not Matt and think this has more dynamics than that storm if I remember correctly. That means the precip rates could be higher with this storm. Still the idea of more west and at elevation is probably the way to go. I didn't really start tracking until the Dec 19-20 storm, though I did follow the Dec 5 storm a little. I have to say I was shocked by how long it snowed here on that day and how much we ended up with - close to 4" if I remember correctly. I had no idea that just a little east of here didn't get much in the way of accumulation, and honestly would never have thought that elevation here may have played a factor (I'm at around 320'). It'll be interesting to see how this one turns out, and to see what the magic elevation number was. Edit: Sorry - just saw that Midlo started an elevation thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Wow that was a pretty good storm from Marc 7-8 1941. All snow in DC metro and the freezing mix down over EZF to ROA. If Im reading it right 10" of snow fell over a widespread area in that event It had 1032 high with it which at that time of year would be pretty cold. That's the big difference. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BethesdaWX Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 00z NAM awaits. I can't believe I'm tracking what will likely be a non-event.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Avdave Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 It had 1032 high with it which at that time of year would be pretty cold. That's the big difference. Thats a pretty strong HP. Im surprised even they flipped to the south of DC towards Fredericksburg. Even with the Low still sitting over MYB/ILM there must have been a warm boundary layer enough to keep it a mix down thru central VA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 going to be funny some people will see their first snow before their first frost this year how often does that happen? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Avdave Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 going to be funny some people will see their first snow before their first frost this year how often does that happen? That is kind of funny. I never thought of that. But then again with the way this year has been with last winter, spring, summer, and fall with all the wild and weird events in the region this is the icing on the cake in a way. But good point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 That is kind of funny. I never thought of that. But then again with the way this year has been with last winter, spring, summer, and fall with all the wild and weird events in the region this is the icing on the cake in a way. But good point. Winter hasn't even begun yet and we still have another 2 months for mother nature to impress again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 21z SREFs have a good amount of QPF as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted October 28, 2011 Author Share Posted October 28, 2011 if the past is any indicator, the SREFs usually hint at where the NAM is headed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 21z SREFs have a good amount of QPF as well That's no longer the issue, it's the low level temps and ho quickly the fall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BethesdaWX Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 I think the NAM is coming west this run based on the look thru hr12 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 I think the NAM is coming west this run based on the look thru hr12 you'll learn Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted October 28, 2011 Author Share Posted October 28, 2011 Gonna be out till at least 10:45...I'll rely on Mitch for play by play. Maps load slow as hell on an iphone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 I'll say this, through 18 hrs I can't believe how cold the 850's are at -4C at DCA/BWI that's pretty impressive Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 I think the SREF demonstrates the problem we have here nailing down this forecast really well for people in the DC Metro. Shown here is a Non-Skewed (IE. Isotemp is vertical not skewed right like normal) temperature profile with the attached Ensembles. Also showed on here is the WBZ or Wet-Bulb Zero.. since the air is already saturated we can assume that this will be the level in which snowflakes will start to rime or melt. This combined shows us at which point above ground the melting will begin. The scale on the left side is X* 1000 ft. AGL . The problem is... instead of a either all higher above ground melting elevation or a all below freezing profile, the temperature profile during the day Saturday leads to a scenario in which any number of elevations from 4,000 to 500 ft. AGL could be the melting layer. Thus look at the graph on the left side of the picture, using the thicknesses method we can see that there is a whole range of possible hydrometers that could be present at this time (each dot is a individual ensemble). Not a good time to be a betting man in DC.. I'll post one for the end of the storm to show the change in a bit... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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