PhineasC Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 lol Is is still sleeting at the Bay Bridge? His analysis always cracks me up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterymix Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 lol Is is still sleeting at the Bay Bridge? Elevation's not gonna help; way at the top of those spans, it is only 379 feet asl. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 21z SREF a bit colder aloft. 850 0C line maybe ~10-20mi east at 18z tomorrow, which is the warmest time. 15z SREFs had it almost over IAD at the time, 21z has it about right over DCA and along I-95. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris87 Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 1319853243[/url]' post='1074144']21z SREF a bit colder aloft. 850 0C line maybe ~10-20mi east at 18z tomorrow, which is the warmest time. 15z SREFs had it almost over IAD at the time, 21z has it about right over DCA and along I-95. How many members show an appreciable changeover for the i95 corridor that's way more important than an ensemble mean? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris87 Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 0z NAM stays with an extended changeover period for DCA...at least if it's going down it stuck to its guns. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 wow at the NAM....i guess hug at your own peril.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 How many members show an appreciable changeover for the i95 corridor that's way more important than an ensemble mean? I've only seen the mean so far. Ewall is still yesterday's run so far. NAM is slightly colder at 850 vs. 18z through 18z tomorrow. System isn't quite as amped. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 I haven't seen surface temps but based on 850s and amount of precip in frames, changeover to snow for 95 by my estimate? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris87 Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 1319853742[/url]' post='1074175']I've only seen the mean so far. Ewall is still yesterday's run so far. NAM is slightly colder at 850 vs. 18z through 18z tomorrow. System isn't quite as amped. Thanks for the update. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BaltimoreWxGuy Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 NAM not budging in its colder backlash solution.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 I haven't seen surface temps but based on 850s and amount of precip in frames, changeover to snow for 95 by my estimate? NAM would be snow for the I-95 corridor by ~14-15z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris87 Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 1319853964[/url]' post='1074193']NAM not budging in its colder backlash solution.. It's weaker a bit drier and less amplified....thus less WAA and *model predicted* snow map which is further south a bit. Note: interpretation not equal to forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BaltimoreWxGuy Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 It's weaker a bit drier and less amplified....thus less WAA and *model predicted* snow map which is further south a bit. Yeah but its also not waffling on the backlash at hour 24 where the GFS seems to want to dryslot a lot more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 Enjoy! http://raleighwx.ame...msnow_NE024.gif NAM is 1.5-2" liquid equivalent for most of us and makes a majority of that snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris87 Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 1319854210[/url]' post='1074222']Enjoy! http://raleighwx.ame...msnow_NE024.gif NAM is 1.5-2" liquid equivalent for most of us and makes a majority of that snow. I'm always a big fan of a model showdown within 24 hours....somebody is going to bust hard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 NAM really wants to keep the weenies interested. Tough to fully ignore a clown map with over a foot of snow nearby. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 Repost (accidentally in banter thread) The NAM is usually pretty good in this range with temp profiles. I dunno. It could be right or close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted October 29, 2011 Author Share Posted October 29, 2011 wow at the NAM....i guess hug at your own peril.... Yeah, time to shut the NAM down. The wraparound/backlash is ridiculous. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 I'm always a big fan of a model showdown within 24 hours....somebody is going to bust hard. No doubt. Now I'd cut those model-generated snow totals in half or so due to compression/melting/snow ratios. That's still WAY more than the GFS is predicting. Most times, if the Euro and NAM are in agreement (and they're fairly close here) and the GFS is the outlier, I'd take the Euro/NAM combination. Perhaps GFS will score a coup here, its certainly got almighty climo on its side. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 I'm always a big fan of a model showdown within 24 hours....somebody is going to bust hard. It would be helpful if the 00z GFS were to nudge the NAM's way at least a lil bit. If it doesn't... well then how do you forecast when one model says mostly rain and another says 4"+ of snow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 I'd still feel like an utter weenie believing it though.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 Repost (accidentally in banter thread) The NAM is usually pretty good in this range with temp profiles. I dunno. It could be right or close. Obviously overdone on the snow but goodness could the short range model really be that wrong this close on temps? Baffling....anyway according to those silly coolwx maps even the 18z gfs gave IAD a decent amount of frozen precip....glad it's only October Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted October 29, 2011 Author Share Posted October 29, 2011 Repost (accidentally in banter thread) The NAM is usually pretty good in this range with temp profiles. I dunno. It could be right or close. I said this earlier. Thermals with the NAM are supposedly best in this range. But it's hard to take seriously with the amount of wrap around/backlash it has. Even cutting the clown maps in half, that's about 4 inches for us. Now you can rightfully lolz Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris87 Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 1319854464[/url]' post='1074252']Repost (accidentally in banter thread) The NAM is usually pretty good in this range with temp profiles. I dunno. It could be right or close. I really expected a cave to the warm side. It's hard to argue with a model that has the resolution advantage...but then again if all the 0z guidance looked like the NAM I still wouldn't believe nothing until I saw it tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ThePhotoGuy Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSIONNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC 955 PM EDT FRI OCT 28 2011 .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/... -- Changed Discussion --HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER NEW YORK THIS EVENING. TWO AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE ON THE MAP...THE FIRST ACROSS EASTERN TN AND THE SECOND OFF THE COAST OF THE CAROLINAS. COLD AIR WEDGE IN PLACE ACROSS THE CWFA. GETTING SPORADIC REPORTS OF ALL SNOW ABOVE 1200 FT THIS EVENING...WITH A RASN MIX ACROSS THE CENTRAL SHENANDOAH VALLEY. HAVE TWEAKED THE POP AND WX GRIDS TO REFLECT CURRENT CONDITIONS. 00Z SOUNDING ANALYSIS SHOWS ATMOS IS BELOW FREEZING ABOVE 2500 FT. EUROPEAN...GFS...AND NAM ALL SIMILAR WITH THE SURFACE/UPPER LEVEL SYNOPTIC FEATURES. ONE MAIN DIFFERENCE IS TEMPS AT 850MB...THE NAM STAYS DECIDEDLY COLDER THAN THE OTHER MODELS. EUROPEAN AND GFS BOTH HAVE WARM ADVECTION OCCURRING AT 850MB OVERNIGHT...WHILE THE NAM HAS SOME SLIGHT COOLING. HAVE TWEAKED THE SNOWFALL TOTALS A BIT THIS EVENING. RAISED TOTALS AROUND AN INCH OR TWO ACROSS THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS. ALSO RAISED SNOWFALL TOTALS JUST EAST OF THE WARNING AREA AND RAISED AN ADVISORY. THIS AREA WILL BE VERY CLOSE TO WHERE A HEAVY BAND OF PRECIP WILL SET UP ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER TOMORROW. NOT CONFIDENT ON HOW FAR SOUTH THE BAND WILL EXTEND...SO DIDN`T RAISE ANYTHING FURTHER ACROSS THE CENTRAL VA FOOTHILLS. OTHERWISE...NO MAJOR CHANGES. -- End Changed Discussion -- Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 could the short range model really be that wrong this close on temps? Well that's the key here. We're talking about a couple degrees at 850 and a degree or two near 700. GFS is warm at both levels, NAM is cold at both levels. Neither would be THAT wrong if the other verified. I'd certainly like to see IAD send a balloon up at 18z tomorrow just so we could verify them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted October 29, 2011 Author Share Posted October 29, 2011 Obviously overdone on the snow but goodness could the short range model really be that wrong this close on temps? Baffling....anyway according to those silly coolwx maps even the 18z gfs gave IAD a decent amount of frozen precip....glad it's only October I think I'm more skeptical of the amount of precip after the low passes us than I am of the thermal profile. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 Repost (accidentally in banter thread) The NAM is usually pretty good in this range with temp profiles. I dunno. It could be right or close. Nothing really changed today significantly with any models... all held their positions... which is sort of weird.. still no real consensus among the two sides.. time to start looking at mesoscale and short range stuff.. speaking of which what do the srefs look like. Glad I stuck to my guns 2-5" still seems possible.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 Obviously overdone on the snow but goodness could the short range model really be that wrong this close on temps? Baffling....anyway according to those silly coolwx maps even the 18z gfs gave IAD a decent amount of frozen precip....glad it's only October Yeah, the clown map is still a bit clownish but at this range I'd almost always lean on the NAM temps and mesoscale features. It's a hell of a lot of QPF but I think if we're going to maximize QPF oftentimes it's going to be early season like this. You still have to slash and burn a little but that's still considerably more interesting than the GFS at least around here. I still don't really love the vort positioning but it sorta cuts due east across this area after coming from the sw.. not something you see that often. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted October 29, 2011 Author Share Posted October 29, 2011 I really expected a cave to the warm side. It's hard to argue with a model that has the resolution advantage...but then again if all the 0z guidance looked like the NAM I still wouldn't believe nothing until I saw it tomorrow. So did I. It is a little unnerving (if you're a forecaster) to see something like this so close to the event. I thought the NAM would cave hard for this run. I guess we'll test out the NAM vs GFS thermals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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