Ian Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 I said this earlier. Thermals with the NAM are supposedly best in this range. But it's hard to take seriously with the amount of wrap around/backlash it has. Even cutting the clown maps in half, that's about 4 inches for us. Now you can rightfully lolz I havent loled that much since we got into range. I'll lol most d6 threats. It's perplexing. Honestly for now it's hard to want to change any ideas but if the NAM is right lots of people are going to be busting or updating throughout tomorrow. It is interesting NWS has seemingly continued to go more bullish while everyone else is rather nervous (except the guy that just moved here from SNE). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 I think I'm more skeptical of the amount of precip after the low passes us than I am of the thermal profile. If you want any flakes then like the NAM thermal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 Repost (accidentally in banter thread) The NAM is usually pretty good in this range with temp profiles. I dunno. It could be right or close. At 12Z the GFS was a superior model that was likely right. 12 hours later the NAM could be right? Just messing with you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 I havent loled that much since we got into range. I'll lol most d6 threats. It's perplexing. Honestly for now it's hard to want to change any ideas but if the NAM is right lots of people are going to be busting or updating throughout tomorrow. It is interesting NWS has seemingly continued to go more bullish while everyone else is rather nervous (except the guy that just moved here from SNE). Its very perplexing. Isn't the NAM supposed to have the better thermals than the GFS because its a mesoscale model? Makes me wonder if we should take a peak at the WRF or the MM5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted October 29, 2011 Author Share Posted October 29, 2011 I havent loled that much since we got into range. I'll lol most d6 threats. It's perplexing. Honestly for now it's hard to want to change any ideas but if the NAM is right lots of people are going to be busting or updating throughout tomorrow. It is interesting NWS has seemingly continued to go more bullish while everyone else is rather nervous (except the guy that just moved here from SNE). We all know what happened the last few times LWX went bullish when everybody else was cautious....they did that a lot in 09-10...just sayin. Honestly, I could see a surprise happening tomorrow...you have to at least wonder with the NAM being so persistent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 Well that's the key here. We're talking about a couple degrees at 850 and a degree or two near 700. GFS is warm at both levels, NAM is cold at both levels. Neither would be THAT wrong if the other verified. I'd certainly like to see IAD send a balloon up at 18z tomorrow just so we could verify them. Yeah, this is so marginal/borderline that every minute wobble between model runs looms large. In the middle of January with a cold high being tapped the models would have been locked in for some time now in terms of sensible weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris87 Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 1319854872[/url]' post='1074309']So did I. It is a little unnerving (if you're a forecaster) to see something like this so close to the event. I thought the NAM would cave hard for this run. I guess we'll test out the NAM vs GFS thermals. As Ian mentioned the odd translation of the vort is probably responsible for keeping the deformation band around so long, not sure that's a real feasible solution but models handle the math better than I do...the NAM will at least make stay up for the rest of the 0z guidance Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 We all know what happened the last few times LWX went bullish when everybody else was cautious....they did that a lot in 09-10...just sayin. Honestly, I could see a surprise happening tomorrow...you have to at least wonder with the NAM being so persistent. I don't think many were truly cautious in 09-10 in this range. Shocked maybe.. but those big storms locked in early. Dec 26 might be a good example. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 Its very perplexing. Isn't the NAM supposed to have the better thermals than the GFS because its a mesoscale model? Makes me wonder if we should take a peak at the WRF or the MM5 In this range it should be superior in the lower levels at least. I think the GFS would probably still model the overall storm better yet the NAM's going to highlight the convective type potential. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 Repost (accidentally in banter thread) The NAM is usually pretty good in this range with temp profiles. I dunno. It could be right or close. That's what I just posted on CWG. I think this is one of those deals where the best thing to do as a forecaster is watch the changeover and temps and see how they conform to the NAM versus GFS. At these time ranges the NAM is usually pretty doggone good. The soundings on the NAM also suggested convection is possible. Certainly an interesting storm. I'd don't thinnk I'd yet change anything on the CWG forecasts but I'd sure caution that the NAM is pretty good at these time ranges and it is cold. One interesting thing is the depth of the isothermal layer that is near freezing. That can produce riming but also can lead to HUGE snowflakes providing the sounding at right and that there is some convection involved. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 As Ian mentioned the odd translation of the vort is probably responsible for keeping the deformation band around so long, not sure that's a real feasible solution but models handle the math better than I do...the NAM will at least make stay up for the rest of the 0z guidance it's weird it looks like it wants to go northwest of us then it just slams right across the area before resuming it's previous direction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 Yeah, the clown map is still a bit clownish but at this range I'd almost always lean on the NAM temps and mesoscale features. It's a hell of a lot of QPF but I think if we're going to maximize QPF oftentimes it's going to be early season like this. You still have to slash and burn a little but that's still considerably more interesting than the GFS at least around here. I still don't really love the vort positioning but it sorta cuts due east across this area after coming from the sw.. not something you see that often. That vort track is still the same as the 12z runs. I had asked earlier today whether it should be smoothed out for the likely track. Any thoughts? NE to E track is a first for me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 I don't think many were truly cautious in 09-10 in this range. Shocked maybe.. but those big storms locked in early. Dec 26 might be a good example. Heck, I thought I was pretty darn bullish except for the second Feb storm and I still thoguht we'd do well but thought BWI northward would see the big snows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted October 29, 2011 Author Share Posted October 29, 2011 That's what I just posted on CWG. I think this is one of those deals where the best thing to do as a forecaster is watch the changeover and temps and see how they conform to the NAM versus GFS. At these time ranges the NAM is usually pretty doggone good. The soundings on the NAM also suggested convection is possible. Certainly an interesting storm. I'd don't thinnk I'd yet change anything on the CWG forecasts but I'd sure caution that the NAM is pretty good at these time ranges and it is cold. One interesting thing is the depth of the isothermal layer that is near freezing. That can produce riming but also can lead to HUGE snowflakes providing the sounding at right and that there is some convection involved. So you're saying there's a chance...... One a serious note, wasn't it the NAM that first caught the convective potential of the thundersnow last year? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 That's what I just posted on CWG. I think this is one of those deals where the best thing to do as a forecaster is watch the changeover and temps and see how they conform to the NAM versus GFS. At these time ranges the NAM is usually pretty doggone good. The soundings on the NAM also suggested convection is possible. Certainly an interesting storm. I'd don't thinnk I'd yet change anything on the CWG forecasts but I'd sure caution that the NAM is pretty good at these time ranges and it is cold. One interesting thing is the depth of the isothermal layer that is near freezing. That can produce riming but also can lead to HUGE snowflakes providing the sounding at right and that there is some convection involved. I sorta wanted Saturday's at CWG since snowstorms always happen on the weekend. I've had an odd stretch of my forecast day lining up with storms... I talked to Jason earlier.. I think the general idea was the same unless 0z is markedly different. Now you gotta really wonder if the GFS is going to come in super warm or maybe move toward the NAM etc. I might not even start writing till 12:30. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris87 Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 1319855295[/url]' post='1074362']it's weird it looks like it wants to go northwest of us then it just slams right across the area before resuming it's previous direction. Agreed its a bit of a weird evolution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 I sorta wanted Saturday's at CWG since snowstorms always happen on the weekend. I've had an odd stretch of my forecast day lining up with storms... I talked to Jason earlier.. I think the general idea was the same unless 0z is markedly different. Now you gotta really wonder if the GFS is going to come in super warm or maybe move toward the NAM etc. I might not even start writing till 12:30. It would be hilarious IMO if the GFS suddenly went to the NAM's side... RGEM will be interestiing in about 20 mins Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 it's weird it looks like it wants to go northwest of us then it just slams right across the area before resuming it's previous direction. It did the same in the earlier runs today. It's hopping and skipping around enough just to mess with everyone's heads, but if it's right then it's as good a track as we've all been hoping (?) for. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 Just seems that with snow already falling, the NAM holding steady if not colder, that several of you guys might just get surprised on this one. Whether its a pleasant surprise or not would depend upon your point of view. I can't make up my mind what I want to see. I guess the GFS will end the forecasting for this one and we'll just have to watch what happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solo2 Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 Is it snowing in Winchester already? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 It did the same in the earlier runs today. It's hopping and skipping around enough just to mess with everyone's heads, but if it's right then it's as good a track as we've all been hoping (?) for. It's not the track I usually look for but it sure works on the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 It would be hilarious IMO if the GFS suddenly went to the NAM's side... RGEM will be interestiing in about 20 mins That sort of crap happens all the time. UKMET might hit Spain tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 Just seems that with snow already falling, the NAM holding steady if not colder, that several of you guys might just get surprised on this one. Whether its a pleasant surprise or not would depend upon your point of view. I can't make up my mind what I want to see. I guess the GFS will end the forecasting for this one and we'll just have to watch what happens. As others have said, it's a really close run thing. It's a matter of a degree or two here and there, a few miles with the vort either way. It's hard not to want to go conservative given the time of year and the fact that the GFS is coming in a bit warmer. But the NAM is being stubborn and doesn't want to let the vort follow the seeming trajectory and slide up more north as it approaches the immediate area. No matter what, this is a crazy storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 Is it snowing in Winchester already? About half and half. Just mostly wet flakes. Temp is falling about a degree every 45 mins or so. That's why I think this might be a surprise for those who were on the line wrt temps. Just seems its a bit colder, and must be cold above, than it was forecast to be at this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kicking Up A Storm Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 Weenie Alert: With temperatures so very marginal around the DC metro area, isn't this a nowcasting event? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 Is MOS output archived anywhere? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 I sorta wanted Saturday's at CWG since snowstorms always happen on the weekend. I've had an odd stretch of my forecast day lining up with storms... I talked to Jason earlier.. I think the general idea was the same unless 0z is markedly different. Now you gotta really wonder if the GFS is going to come in super warm or maybe move toward the NAM etc. I might not even start writing till 12:30. I do wonder, If early tomorrow Winchester or even better Leesburg start getting S+ with thundersnow we'll probably be getting a huge hint at which solution is going to be right. I've leaned towards the GSF during most of the storm but It very well might be too warm. I guess we'll know in around 8 to 10 hours or sooner. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris87 Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 1319855992[/url]' post='1074453']Weenie Alert: With temperatures so very marginal around the DC metro area, isn't this a nowcasting event? Yes a majority of us have made that very clear for the last day or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 It's not the track I usually look for but it sure works on the NAM. I noticed it on either the 18Z or 12Z (I can't remember which). It was down near the KY, TN, NC, VA borders, jumped up to around Harrisonburg, then slid a little more due east and then up to Philly. Like you said, its not what you'd expect, and it's not in an ideal position as it passes by us, but it certainly works. The NAM seems to like it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 Is MOS output archived anywhere? I bet you it is by someone at TDL for verification purposes but where and whether it is easily assessable is something I ahve no idea about. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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