yoda Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 NORTHERN BALTIMORE-HARFORD-MONTGOMERY-HOWARD = WWA... 3-5" of snow forecast SOUTHERN BALTIMORE-PRINCE WILLIAM/MANASSAS/MANASSAS PARK-FAIRFAX- SOUTHERN FAUQUIER = WWA... 1-4" of snow forecast (lowest amts near I-95 corridor) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 I don't really know why what the models have showed matters.......we have to see how it plays out, but a super early season event with this surface and upper level track with this air mass is going to dump snow somewhere to our north and west and probably not on us....who cares what the models showed? the models advertised it; yeah Tip had a thread in the NE forum about a possible event, but then he pulled the plug a day too soon I believe it's fair to say that very few would have been interested in this "event" if the Euro, NAM and even the GFS weren't showing historical October snows (historical NOV snows for that matter), so in that respect, the models did matter it's been very close for us all along; I'm not saying it''s over either, but no one can deny it doesn't look good attm although I would love to see some accumulating snows, and we still may, I'm not going to loose too much sleep over it considering the date and the fact we (IAD/DCA/BWI) will all finish OCT with above normal precip, and that is encouraging for the winter season, especially if NOV can follow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 NORTHERN BALTIMORE-HARFORD-MONTGOMERY-HOWARD = WWA... 3-5" of snow forecast SOUTHERN BALTIMORE-PRINCE WILLIAM/MANASSAS/MANASSAS PARK-FAIRFAX- SOUTHERN FAUQUIER = WWA... 1-4" of snow forecast (lowest amts near I-95 corridor) Close enough to what I thought was possible here.. (2-5").. Maybe a little over performence can get us there.. (only a mile or two north in lutherville is forecasted for 2-4") Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Close enough to what I thought was possible here.. (2-5").. Maybe a little over performence can get us there.. (only a mile or two north in lutherville is forecasted for 2-4") I will be absolutely shocked if Towson sees 2-5". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thunderman Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 changed over to snow here in near Harrisonburg about 35 minutes ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 changed over to snow here in near Harrisonburg about 35 minutes ago. What is the temperature? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snownut Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Just got to my cabin in Hardy County and had moderate snow and solid cover on Cord-H (not roads of course) then back into Valley rain snow mix. Came back up to back side of mountain to cabin and snow line was 1650' have 1/2" on deck and grass / mulch areas. light snow falling now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 I will be absolutely shocked if Towson sees 2-5". The lower end of that isn't really that unreachable... I said it wasn't impossible to reach it.. Lol.. afterall the forecast is 1-3" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thunderman Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 What is the temperature? it was roughly 38/22 edit: it is currently 36/25 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 the way the models depicted this a day or 2 ago, it was a hit regardless of the season ultimately, if this doesn't work out, it's not because of the date, but because of the upper levels assuming the GFS is correct with the 5H, 7H and 850 H, this would have turned to sleet or rain even in the middle of the winter although originally it was modeled to be a problem for snow because of the boundary level, it seems to have ended up being our typical NINA "problem" event accept it, and expect to have a few more this winter, that's all not sure I agree with this totally...it can snow south of the H5 track in specific instances, its just not as common. This seems to be a case where it might have if this was mid winter. There is no huge warm surge really its just a degree or two were talking about and to think it would not be a few degrees colder at most levels if this was January might not be the case. I think the heaviest snows would have been NW of our area even in January, but this setup might have been a case like some of the 60s storms where the 20" plus snows were in PA but the DC area still got 10" of snow even though they were south of the upper level energy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snownut Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 First snow of 2011-2012 season Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 First snow of 2011-2012 season Awesome picture Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 First snow of 2011-2012 season Nice. You're in a good spot. Enjoy ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 Not one person here outside of higher elevations should be let down or shocked by this. This was a fun and interesting storm to track nonetheless. Matt I'm not sold on traveling now, unless you want to head up to the poconos. I'm happy that we played things conservatively on CWG. After looking at the 18Z GFS I don't feel honor bound to wait for the 00Z version. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 not sure I agree with this totally...it can snow south of the H5 track in specific instances, its just not as common. This seems to be a case where it might have if this was mid winter. There is no huge warm surge really its just a degree or two were talking about and to think it would not be a few degrees colder at most levels if this was January might not be the case. I think the heaviest snows would have been NW of our area even in January, but this setup might have been a case like some of the 60s storms where the 20" plus snows were in PA but the DC area still got 10" of snow even though they were south of the upper level energy. well, although I hear ya', I can't recall any 10" totals around here when we've been south of the H5 but I guess is can happen maybe we can just agree that 1) it's potentially nice to see this early in the season for the upcoming winter, and 2) we'll never really know what could have been in the middle of the winter, but we can dream Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wood Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 steady snow on afton mtn Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 well, although I hear ya', I can't recall any 10" totals around here when we've been south of the H5 but I guess is can happen maybe we can just agree that 1) it's potentially nice to see this early in the season for the upcoming winter, and 2) we'll never really know what could have been in the middle of the winter, but we can dream totally agree Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 First snow of 2011-2012 season Congrats Snownut - You can have all of that wet snow. You can take my snow this go around - and I'll cheerfully embrace the rain. Rain don't bring branches down on my house - heavy wet snow DOES. You can have ALL the wet snow man. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thunderman Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 snowing nicely now! Starting to accumulate on the deck. sitting at 34.7/24.1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 snowing nicely now! Starting to accumulate on the deck. sitting at 34.7/24.1 Lucky - Got light rain here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 That's just great - I thought I was gonna slide - thought I was far enough east to get away with only rainfall.NO SUCH LUCK I got fully leaved trees right near my house. Those branches will come down as heavy wet snow piles up on them. C'MON models! GO a LOT farther west with this!!!!! Please for the love of the universe! Give Leesburg 17 inches of wet snow, give me about 2 inches of plain rain - Just this once please! Using reverse psychology dosen't work against Mother Nature. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brad1551 Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 I am shocked over the snow coming into the northern Va in the morning. I have never seen snow this early in the year. Makes me think of the winter to come. Feels like a possible old fashion winter for me this year. Besides the early start. Tomorrow morning will be a morning for picture taking if everything plays out. 2-4" in my neck of the woods. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PrinceFrederickWx Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 TWC and LWX still has BWI as getting 1-3 inches of snow. I'll stick with them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thunderman Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 34/25 right now, descent flakes coming down and starting to coat the grass in the last 15 minutes. Hefty coating on most everything else besides roads/sidewalks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterymix Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 It seems I-81 is the divide between the haves and have-nots. A big red flag is the rain way to the north, NNE and NNW. Where is any source of cold air other than dynamic mixing down with heavy precip rates? The idea of heights crashing in sync with precip starting to cut off (late tomorrow afternoon) is the climatological norm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Huffwx Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 Snowing pretty good right now! I'm in Harrisonburg till tomorrow AM then off to Massunutten (Whenever I can get there) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 Folks please move observations to the Obs thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 Nice to see the point and clicks increase to 2-4" inside 695 north of balt city! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snownut Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 Congrats Snownut - You can have all of that wet snow. You can take my snow this go around - and I'll cheerfully embrace the rain. Rain don't bring branches down on my house - heavy wet snow DOES. You can have ALL the wet snow man. jebman... totally agree. concerned about trees down here tomorrow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted October 29, 2011 Author Share Posted October 29, 2011 It seems I-81 is the divide between the haves and have-nots. A big red flag is the rain way to the north, NNE and NNW. Where is any source of cold air other than dynamic mixing down with heavy precip rates? The idea of heights crashing in sync with precip starting to cut off (late tomorrow afternoon) is the climatological norm. lol Is is still sleeting at the Bay Bridge? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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