chris21 Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Not really sure when the 18z Gfs became a short range model but ok Seriously, I mean, I don't think the cities will see more than an inch, but when were they supposed to? It's not like there has been some drastic change in modeling. Are we only relying on the 18z GFS? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris21 Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 If the GFS is right or at least more correct than the NAM, and i would certainly lean that way, there isn't a lot of moisture to work with after the changeover for most of us....even upper MOCO and Loudoun.....we would still see some snow though and that is cool......but no moisture laden pasty bomb except well north and well west....and that makes perfect sense for an early season track anyway Fair enough Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Not really sure when the 18z Gfs became a short range model but ok you should be open minded where you are....you could get several hours of decent snow....even if 1-2" and lower impact that is pretty cool Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Any help... Have a low virga deck here in ENC racing in from the NNE, WV shows the developing low over GA is about to ingest a gulp of Caribbean PW's... Clear that something broke off Rina and is coming through the FL peninsula, about to become a player. Fluck the models <72, now-casting for many as the output was somewhat uniform in the home stretch, Boone is reporting -SN, anywhere N and W of DC looks to be inline for the CCB that is about to develop over the next 12-18 hours. Draw a line from LYH-CHO-Leesburg-Philli, better wax your flipping sleds cause a early season Oct Storm is about to put the hammer down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
schinz Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Seriously, I mean, I don't think the cities will see more than an inch, but when were they supposed to? It's not like there has been some drastic change in modeling. Are we only relying on the 18z GFS? I agree Chris. It is somewhat entertaining to read the posts like "this was" and we "should have never thought" etc. Is the event over? It is going to be a very long Winter for some on here if every time the GFS craps on their day they throw in towel. If the Euro had gone the other way and the GFS was proclaiming snow, then the party would be over because the Euro said so. I guess it is just part of some people's personalities. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Snowing on I-64 in far western VA: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Funny thing about the GFS though...its track is the same as the NAM/Euro its simply warmer. I am not totally sure I buy the massive surge of warm air well into the CCB region of the precip sheild. It makes some sense given climo but the thermal profiles of the euro/nam also make sense given the extreme precip rates and dynamics during the height of the precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Any help... Have a low virga deck here in ENC racing in from the NNE, WV shows the developing low over GA is about to ingest a gulp of Caribbean PW's... Clear that something broke off Rina and is coming through the FL peninsula, about to become a player. Fluck the models <72, now-casting for many as the output was somewhat uniform in the home stretch, Boone is reporting -SN, anywhere N and E of DC looks to be inline for the CCB that is about to develop over the next 12-18 hours. Draw a line from LYH-CHO-Leesburg-Philli, better wax your flipping sleds cause a early season Oct Storm is about to put the hammer down. That was evident this morning and on every GFS and NAM run since 00z.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 I agree Chris. It is somewhat entertaining to read the posts like "this was" and we "should have never thought" etc. Is the event over? It is going to be a very long Winter for some on here if every time the GFS craps on their day they throw in towel. If the Euro had gone the other way and the GFS was proclaiming snow, then the party would be over because the Euro said so. I guess it is just part of some people's personalities. That or many of us have noticed a pretty strong trend around here over the years... whenever there is a potential storm and one model shows no snow...that model tends to verify the best. If you simply go with the most conservative model in each event you will do well more often then not around here. Painful fact. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NoVaWx Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Precip getting closer, snowing nicely in garret county on honi-honi.com... it was just cloudy an hour ago and now everything is dusted. I think anyone west of IAD is gonna start off in the next couple hours with some sleet/snow because of evap cooling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brad1551 Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Very cold rain, with mixed in wet snowflakes. Now if this were mid January a lot of people would be talking different and I would be angry. Missing the spring & summer already. I hope this is not a preliminary to winter 11-12. I am a weather guru , but snow has always been on the bottom for me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 That was evident this morning and on every GFS and NAM run since 00z.. Just pointing it out in real time in case anyone wanted to cut those QPF totals in half, thanks though Cheese, no need to quote the images, but yeah, it helps to see it on the current WV loop compared to the American suite at 48. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Snowing in Staunton per friend on Facebook. Wow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 The most unfortunate thing is their are some really miserable personalities on here. It really takes alot of the fun out of tracking these storms. Youve got people on here trying to play psychologist, and telling people how they should or should not feel. I think more than likely they write things because it brings them some kind of peace like they have to convince themselves. I'm guessing you live in eastern Loudoun or western FFX county....am i right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lsukev Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 On Skyline Drive. About mile 20. Snowing fairly well here. Already some accumulation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 I agree. the wishcasters crap up these threads and make them unreadable. all of that belongs in the banter thread. I just looked and even on the warm GFS you get pretty bombed....you certainly don't want it any further west (though I know you don't want to lose power either) for good snow though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Actually I live in central FFX county. Im sure your a very nice guy but I dont think most of us need to hear that this was "never an imby event". Fifty miles in the great scheme of things is not that much, and if someone 50 miles from me might see a couple inches of snow then it could have just as well been my area. It is October 29th....grow up....these type of issues with this kind of track are prevalent in this area into early-mid December..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Actually I live in central FFX county. Im sure your a very nice guy but I dont think most of us need to hear that this was "never an imby event". Fifty miles in the great scheme of things is not that much, and if someone 50 miles from me might see a couple inches of snow then it could have just as well been my area. So are you wanting experiecned posters who know climo and reality to not try and temper the raging weenieism that can come from this event? There have already been posts by some wanting to jump off a bridge when the 12z run went warm. Matt is talking sense and is one of this areas best people in sniffing out a snow storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VAsnowlvr82 Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 It is October 29th....grow up Im not the immature one here. Youve been acting like you have something to prove all day. I realize just how improbable this is but nobody needs you to tell them that. Why do some of you feel like you have to temper any enthusiasm. What harm could it possibly do? If you think that someone is going to run screaming to a local news organization with missinformation I understand that, but I dont think most people on here are going to do that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted October 28, 2011 Author Share Posted October 28, 2011 Not one person here outside of higher elevations should be let down or shocked by this. This was a fun and interesting storm to track nonetheless. Matt I'm not sold on traveling now, unless you want to head up to the poconos. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 I just looked and even on the warm GFS you get pretty bombed....you certainly don't want it any further west (though I know you don't want to lose power either) for good snow though Thicknesses are a problem on that run here, and there doesn't seem to be a comma head to provide the raking like the NAM. We hang on with 18Z GFS but don't want to see 00 Z agree. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Not one person here outside of higher elevations should be let down or shocked by this. This was a fun and interesting storm to track nonetheless. Matt I'm not sold on traveling now, unless you want to head up to the poconos. I guess you don't read your email...Ian and I aborted the mission like an hour ago Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 The last time I checked, before dark, it was snowing in Frederick Co on Wardensville Grade. I guess that counts as tracking the storm. I guess with the warm trends, the west trends, it's hard to know what to expect out here. Doesn't matter, can't change it. Just hope tomorrow's football viewing isn't interrupted by no power. To the poster who said 50 miles isn't that much, I probably live less than that from Canaan Valley as the crow flies. The difference is about 180 inches there to about 25 here, on average. 50 miles is a long way when elevation comes into the picture. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 It is October 29th....grow up....these type of issues with this kind of track are prevalent in this area into early-mid December..... lolz...or longer. antecedent cold air as we can get from dec on would have been a huge asset here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Huffwx Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 I'm up in Harrisonburg in route to Massanutten. Snowing.. kids are fired up. Snow tonight..waterpark tomorrow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Im not the immature one here. Youve been acting like you have something to prove all day. I realize just how improbable this is but nobody needs you to tell them that. Why do some of you feel like you have to temper any enthusiasm. What harm could it possibly do? If you think that someone is going to run screaming to a local news organization with missinformation I understand that, but I dont think most people on here are going to do that. Disagree or why would the board feel the need to issue SEP? There are many people here who gum up things posts about snow not accumulating due to it is the weekend and more people are in their cars. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 the way the models depicted this a day or 2 ago, it was a hit regardless of the season ultimately, if this doesn't work out, it's not because of the date, but because of the upper levels assuming the GFS is correct with the 5H, 7H and 850 H, this would have turned to sleet or rain even in the middle of the winter although originally it was modeled to be a problem for snow because of the boundary level, it seems to have ended up being our typical NINA "problem" event accept it, and expect to have a few more this winter, that's all Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 the way the models depicted this a day or 2 ago, it was a hit regardless of the season ultimately, if this doesn't work out, it's not because of the date, but because of the upper levels assuming the GFS is correct with the 5H, 7H and 850 H, this would have turned to sleet or rain even in the middle of the winter although originally it was modeled to be a problem for snow because of the boundary level, it seems to have ended up being our typical NINA "problem" event accept it, and expect to have a few more this winter, that's all I don't really know why what the models have showed matters.......we have to see how it plays out, but a super early season event with this surface and upper level track with this air mass is going to dump snow somewhere to our north and west and probably not on us....who cares what the models showed? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 In Maryland, you'll see your biggest accumulations N and W of a line from Jarrettsville to Westminster to Frederick. I imagine the ridges along I-81 from WV up through PA will do quite well with this storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BaltimoreWxGuy Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 FIrst call totals...final Call will be after 00z runs tonight....Baltimore-0.5" DC-coating, Annapolis/Serverna Park-dusting, Bel Air-2 inches, Hereford 4", Frederick-5" Hagerstown-8" Southern PA 4-8" depending on west to east location. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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