yoda Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 not sure how you can tell without any temperature profiles and only a few thickness lines. While the RGEM is probably a tad warm, the thickness line stays west of the BR through 24... which tells me thats likely to be rain east of there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Hello fellow mid-Atlantic snow crows, hope you're all well as we approach Halloween! Coming out of the warm season "hibernation" here, haven't been on the board in awhile. Actually, very tired today after staying up and witnessing that unbelievable World Series Game 6 last night and haven't delved much into the latest indications/discussions yet. Don't have great expectations here in the metro DC area, other than late tonight and tomorrow look downright raw and nasty regardless. But it would be nice to see a little snow mixing in at least, and even possibly whitening the ground a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 18z RGEM at 24 hrs (18z tomorrow afternoon) -- http://www.weatherof...st/3293_100.gif yoda you missed a model Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sparky Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 yoda you missed a model JB model? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 not sure how you can tell without any temperature profiles and only a few thickness lines. not sure where the other models have that particular thickness line since its not really commonly shown on their output. Its possible your eval is correct and likely given the RGEM usually runs warm, but I can't really tell exact details given those progs. Besides relying on thickness in a dynamically driven early season event is probably not the greatest idea either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 GFS Torch.....next Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 I wish I would have continued watching the game. I was going to pack it in and call it a night just before the Cards' bottom of the 9th, but then thought what the hell, maybe I'll sit and see the end of the Series and watch the Rangers celebrate on-field and see some post-game stuff (I don't have a horse in this race, am a Cleveland fan, but sort of rooting for the underdog Cardinals to pull it out). It's been a pretty exciting Series, after all. Well, little did I know what would happen! So the Cards tied it up in dramatic fashion in their 9th and I was hooked the rest of the way. You can't just leave a game like that. I couldn't believe what I was watching...after a rather sloppy and painful game to watch through the first 6 innings, the last few innings were unreal! Historic, in fact, and that's probably not hyperbole there. Reminded me of the 1986 Mets in Game 6, but StL coming back from not one, but TWO, 2-run deficits when facing elimination in their last at-bat tops that one. OK, I know that's all not really relevant to mid-Atlantic weather, but anyhow! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 GFS Torch.....next honestly the GFS is a disaster Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Climo! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 honestly the GFS is a disaster I am nervous that this will not ammount to very much even up here...that should tell people something down in the Baltimore Washington area... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 I am nervous that this will not ammount to very much even up here...that should tell people something down in the Baltimore Washington area... that was pretty clear after the euro came out despite what profiles showed...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 GFS Torch.....next "Next!" will most likely and realistically be in about...oh...December I'd guess. Yeah, I'd love to see some snow in late October, would be cool and interesting. But it's just that...late OCTOBER folks! Disappointing to see the trends but not like we normally look for this stuff right now. Now, if it were winter, it would truly suck big time, I agree! And for Oct. 29 (tomorrow), I'd hardly call upper 30s or low 40s a "torch". A little perspective here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 I am nervous that this will not ammount to very much even up here...that should tell people something down in the Baltimore Washington area... Almost everyone should have been nervous the whole time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 A little bit of an improved consensus would have been nice by now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 that was pretty clear after the euro came out despite what profiles showed...... Euro shows 14" for me...I dont buy that at all... I went with 5" just because the NAM/Euro/UK all show 10" of snow in this area...so I hedged my bet but I have been thinking if this turns into a 37 degree heavy rain it would not surprose me even here. I think I see flakes at some point but I am not as sure the ground ends up white as the local mets or the NWS seem to be for my area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 "Next!" will most likely and realistically be in about...oh...December I'd guess. Yeah, I'd love to see some snow in late October, would be cool and interesting. But it's just that...late OCTOBER folks! Disappointing to see the trends but not like we normally look for this stuff right now. Now, if it were winter, it would truly suck big time, I agree! And for Oct. 29 (tomorrow), I'd hardly call upper 30s or low 40s a "torch". A little perspective here. it is a disastrous run for for the eastern/southern half of the warning area..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
marked8 Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 I am nervous that this will not ammount to very much even up here...that should tell people something down in the Baltimore Washington area... Prepare the weenie roast, it could get ugly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
iammrben Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 A little bit of an improved consensus would have been nice by now. But there is. Rain with a few pity flakes thrown in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 But there is. Rain with a few pity flakes thrown in. Yeah, doesn't really inspire much confidence at all Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Euro shows 14" for me...I dont buy that at all... I went with 5" just because the NAM/Euro/UK all show 10" of snow in this area...so I hedged my bet but I have been thinking if this turns into a 37 degree heavy rain it would not surprose me even here. I think I see flakes at some point but I am not as sure the ground ends up white as the local mets or the NWS seem to be for my area. I think you see accumulating snow, But I would lean toward the 1-3" range if I had to make a forecast..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Almost everyone should have been nervous the whole time. well on the up side, I did not spend a lot of time tracking this all week... really only started to pay attention 0z last night... and 2 its October so it doesn't hurt as bad when the rug gets pulled out. Still wish I had continued to not pay attention instead of watching 3 runs of models moving from a historic 10" snow towards cold rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 I think you see accumulating snow, But I would lean toward the 1-3" range if I had to make a forecast..... possibly but I think this looks like the makings of a really sharp boundary between basically no accumulating snows and pretty heavy snow. As the deform band develops where its just cold enough will go over to 6-8 hours of very heavy snow tomorrow...That area probably gets at least 4", then not far away stays just a cold rain or mix with no accumulation and then ends as a short period of snow that probably doesnt stick much. I don't think there is a big area of 1-3" snows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris21 Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 I don't see too much of a difference between the 12z and 18z GFS, correct me if I'm wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Not really sure when the 18z Gfs became a short range model but ok Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted October 28, 2011 Author Share Posted October 28, 2011 Not one person here outside of higher elevations should be let down or shocked by this. This was a fun and interesting storm to track nonetheless. Matt I'm not sold on traveling now, unless you want to head up to the poconos. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 well on the up side, I did not spend a lot of time tracking this all week... really only started to pay attention 0z last night... and 2 its October so it doesn't hurt as bad when the rug gets pulled out. Still wish I had continued to not pay attention instead of watching 3 runs of models moving from a historic 10" snow towards cold rain. Yeah, it's a disappointment to see the models "removing" what could be a historic snow. But your point that it's October is spot-on, so the disappointment is mitigated some by that fact. Curious to know if this were Dec or Jan, say, with the system essentially as it is now, would this all even be a concern? I mean, the set-up would otherwise seem great. The warmer 850 temperatures (and boundary layer of couse) shown now would be a lot different if it were 2-3 months from now. Yes, hypothetical and a lot could be different, but my point is we're still dealing with a mid-fall atmosphere here so borderline rain/snow in October might not be borderline in winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 I am nervous that this will not ammount to very much even up here...that should tell people something down in the Baltimore Washington area... LOL OK, we get it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 I don't see too much of a difference between the 12z and 18z GFS, correct me if I'm wrong. If the GFS is right or at least more correct than the NAM, and i would certainly lean that way, there isn't a lot of moisture to work with after the changeover for most of us....even upper MOCO and Loudoun.....we would still see some snow though and that is cool......but no moisture laden pasty bomb except well north and well west....and that makes perfect sense for an early season track anyway Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 I don't see too much of a difference between the 12z and 18z GFS, correct me if I'm wrong. There actually isnt much, maybe a slight shift here or there... but I think its more the fact that the 18z didn't back down from the 12z and if anything got slightly warmer. Ensembles from 12z were a lot colder so there was probably hope the op was a little off...but this backs it up. Its not the nail in the coffin but its not a good sign. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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