Wonderdog Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Really hugging the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlYourWxPal Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Looks like we might see a period of sleet or sleet mixed with rain prior to any changeover. As you say, it's still a colder run than the other models. Places like frederick would do well. Haha Wes, moving from Charles County to Hagerstown helped me out this time! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 "The story begins on the evening of November 10, 1987. A cold high pressure for the time of year was to the north of the D.C. area, while a weak 'upper air disturbance' was forecasted to pass to the south of D.C .overnight which would include the D.C. area in the northern fringe of its limited precipitation shield. The term 'upper air disturbance' was years later confirmed by a University of Maryland climatologist to me as being what I had suspected all along: that the meteorologists don’t know what it actually is and that it is 'up in the air' and is indeed a disturbance since it is producing cloudiness or precipitation, hence the term upper air disturbance. The local National Weather Service (NWS) as well as every local news meteorologist including Bob Ryan of channel 4, Sue Palka of channel 5, and Gordon Barnes of channel 9 predicted flurries for the area that night. The fact that the local news meteorologists went with the NWS is of no surprise because they rarely deviated from the others and actually stated what they were thinking, if anything." See http://localnews.col...erans-day-storm Actually, Brain Korty of HPC put a forecast for 2-4 inches out prior to the event but none of the local forecasters bought because it was based on then brand new NGM. They were relying more on the LFM and old AVN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 No... Through 24 hrs manages to shift the 850 0c to the NW... fringes DC and Baltimore... game GFS? Actually its moving SE through DC at 24 It kinks and surges northward at 20 hours (14z), with the warmest at 16z, and then is cooling by 18z. It probably is snow by 18/19z in DC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Looks like DC might get dry slotted with the heaviest of precip to the west in hrs 24-27 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Haha Wes, moving from Charles County to Hagerstown helped me out this time! It certainly should unless you lose power and end up with no water or heat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 It kinks and surges northward at 20 hours (14z), with the warmest at 16z, and then is cooling by 18z. It probably is snow by 18/19z in DC. Thats what I saw... and snow continues for about 3-5 hrs after. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 need someone to check soundings for hrs 27-30, maybe close for a changeover and some snow for DC/BAL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 NAM's been moving west and GFS was the first model to bring it west, so yep, GFS, as of now, looks to score the coup unless the guidance is really wrong across the board, I think the big question is what to do with the elevated suburbs 20-30 miles NW of the cities...like Germantown/Leesburg.....That is the trickiest area....Do they get some nuisance wraparound that maybe coats the deck and grass or do they get a wet pasty bomb like the NAM is showing?..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Customary clown map Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 NAM's been moving west and GFS was the first model to bring it west, so yep, GFS, as of now, looks to score the coup So you don't think the NAM basically held its serve from the 12z run? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TowsonWeather Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Man, just north of Baltimore is going to be a nailbiter. We could get blanked here in Towson and folks 20 minutes to our north could see several inches. Just another typical January October storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 unless the guidance is really wrong across the board, I think the big question is what to do with the elevated suburbs 20-30 miles NW of the cities...like Germantown/Leesburg.....That is the trickiest area....Do they get some nuisance wraparound that maybe coats the deck and grass or do they get a wet pasty bomb like the NAM is showing?..... That is, the NAM actually shows a dry slot on its sounding at 18Z. look at how dry it is above around minus 8 o 10C. That's not a great snow sounding and often is a drizzle one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 15z SREFs not as bullish with QPF... looks like easily 1"+, but the 2" contour from the 09z SREFs is gone (besides a very tiny 2 in S PA) It looks like it still takes the h5 low south of us through RIC then just SE of us I believe It's not full cold season yet but we don't usually get 2" QPF winter storms Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 I noticed a few sleet grains early this afternoon. I'll still enjoy my inch of plain regular rain though. I'm grateful. We sure need rain bad here. Gee, we only got 13 inches of rain last month... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 "The story begins on the evening of November 10, 1987. A cold high pressure for the time of year was to the north of the D.C. area, while a weak 'upper air disturbance' was forecasted to pass to the south of D.C .overnight which would include the D.C. area in the northern fringe of its limited precipitation shield. The term 'upper air disturbance' was years later confirmed by a University of Maryland climatologist to me as being what I had suspected all along: that the meteorologists don’t know what it actually is and that it is 'up in the air' and is indeed a disturbance since it is producing cloudiness or precipitation, hence the term upper air disturbance. The local National Weather Service (NWS) as well as every local news meteorologist including Bob Ryan of channel 4, Sue Palka of channel 5, and Gordon Barnes of channel 9 predicted flurries for the area that night. The fact that the local news meteorologists went with the NWS is of no surprise because they rarely deviated from the others and actually stated what they were thinking, if anything." See http://localnews.col...erans-day-storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Man, some of these runs today have been sick for my 'hood. Can't stand any more shifts west though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 That is, the NAM actually shows a dry slot on its sounding at 18Z. look at how dry it is above around minus 8 o 10C. That's not a great snow sounding and often is a drizzle one. I'm more curious about Upper Moco and Loudoun prior to 18z when we are getting pounded.......This is Ji's backyard at 15z....looks like he is getting raked Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 This will be a leesburg - frederick - westminster, york, philly etc special. north and west of those areas will see the heaviest precip and some snow...we stand a really good chance of getting a dry slot during the height of the storm with a brief shot of some mix at the end as the storm pulls off to the northeast... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 I'm more curious about Upper Moco and Loudoun prior to 18z when we are getting pounded.......This is Ji's backyard at 15z....looks like he is getting raked Euro txt indicates JYO gets pounded also...implies about 35 at surface and cold enough aloft....heavy wet snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Euro txt indicates JYO gets pounded also...implies about 35 at surface and cold enough aloft....heavy wet snow. euro is drier and warmer overall....If I lived in Leesburg at 500', I would be much more flexible with my expectations Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 I'm more curious about Upper Moco and Loudoun prior to 18z when we are getting pounded.......This is Ji's backyard at 15z....looks like he is getting raked I think that's true but he needs to get it fast, his sounding also do not show quite as pronounced drying aloft or their sounding is just colder so even with the drying they can get nucleation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 hr 27 and 30 of the NAM close up on ewall show interesting stuff in C MD as a bit of a deform band hits the area it looks like. 850's -3ish and sfc temps 34-35 it looks like. .5-.6 hr 27, .2-.3 more hr 30. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 My first and final call BWI .5" DCA T IAD 1" JYO 3" FDK 3.5" HGR 4" My house 5" Local Area Winner...somewhere on Catoctin Mtn 10" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 euro is drier and warmer overall....If I lived in Leesburg at 500', I would be much more flexible with my expectations There might be a big difference between just west of leesburg where elevations go up to like 600 feet and the town and parts east near the river. I am counting on my 1000 ft elevation to help me a lot with this. Still skeptical even up here but I think the ground will at least get white and I am totally happy with that for October. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 My first and final call BWI .5" DCA T IAD 1" JYO 3" FDK 3.5" HGR 4" My house 5" Local Area Winner...somewhere on Catoctin Mtn 10" an historic storm for BWI if you're right if the NAM's right, a really historic storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 an historic storm for BWI if you're right if the NAM's right, a really historic storm Yeah figures the NAM still snows on us pretty good there for a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 hr 27 and 30 of the NAM close up on ewall show interesting stuff in C MD as a bit of a deform band hits the area it looks like. 850's -3ish and sfc temps 34-35 it looks like. .5-.6 hr 27, .2-.3 more hr 30. yep, and that's been our saving grace on the NAM for the last 3 runs including this one it's a nail bitter and probably a nowcast like we've never seen before on this Board Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 i predict a range of emotions from euphoria to anger nw to se Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 I think that's true but he needs to get it fast, his sounding also do not show quite as pronounced drying aloft or their sounding is just colder so even with the drying they can get nucleation. yes...looks like the drying happens pretty rapidly late morning to early afternoon.....How much do you think the lower levels from say 925mb down to the surface will matter for someone like Ji or say Germantown?.....it looks like above that is pretty solid by early morning or even before Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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