snowfan Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Should be fun tomorrow in State College.....if I can get there, of course. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Currently snowing at Wintergreen they had a nice temp drop i just checked it not long ago and they were 30.0 now 26.9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 i predict a range of emotions from euphoria to anger nw to se Too early in the season for anger. Now jealousy... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SeanVA Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Just checked the verification of the 12z NAM, precipitation on radar is about 50 miles north of where the NAM had it. The low placement is pretty close though. 00z NAM was way off... EDIT: 00z 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sparky Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 this should be a good picture storm with all the leaves in various colors on the trees. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Just checked the verification of the 12z NAM, precipitation on radar is about 50 miles north of where the NAM had it. The low placement is pretty close though. 00z NAM was way off... storms are almost always faster in and out than modeled it seems Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SeanVA Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 storms are almost always faster in and out than modeled it seems It's weird though that the low placement is right and only the precip is shifted north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 18z RGEM at 24 hrs (18z tomorrow afternoon) -- http://www.weatherof...st/3293_100.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 18z RGEM at 24 hrs (18z tomorrow afternoon) -- http://www.weatherof...st/3293_100.gif Solid rainstorm for most. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sparky Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 this might be the biggest one of the winter for NW of cities. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TL97 Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Looking at the NAM snowfall maps, 18z has a little more coverage of 6+ in down I 95. Take it FWIW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Solid rainstorm for most. Yes, looks like the 12z GFS, maybe slightly better at the end Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 HPC probability charts seem a bit extreme. http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/pwpf_24hr/wwd_24hr_probs_sn.php Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Yes, looks like the 12z GFS, maybe slightly better at the end not sure how you can tell without any temperature profiles and only a few thickness lines. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 not sure how you can tell without any temperature profiles and only a few thickness lines. While the RGEM is probably a tad warm, the thickness line stays west of the BR through 24... which tells me thats likely to be rain east of there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Hello fellow mid-Atlantic snow crows, hope you're all well as we approach Halloween! Coming out of the warm season "hibernation" here, haven't been on the board in awhile. Actually, very tired today after staying up and witnessing that unbelievable World Series Game 6 last night and haven't delved much into the latest indications/discussions yet. Don't have great expectations here in the metro DC area, other than late tonight and tomorrow look downright raw and nasty regardless. But it would be nice to see a little snow mixing in at least, and even possibly whitening the ground a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 18z RGEM at 24 hrs (18z tomorrow afternoon) -- http://www.weatherof...st/3293_100.gif yoda you missed a model Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sparky Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 yoda you missed a model JB model? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 not sure how you can tell without any temperature profiles and only a few thickness lines. not sure where the other models have that particular thickness line since its not really commonly shown on their output. Its possible your eval is correct and likely given the RGEM usually runs warm, but I can't really tell exact details given those progs. Besides relying on thickness in a dynamically driven early season event is probably not the greatest idea either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 I wish I would have continued watching the game. I was going to pack it in and call it a night just before the Cards' bottom of the 9th, but then thought what the hell, maybe I'll sit and see the end of the Series and watch the Rangers celebrate on-field and see some post-game stuff (I don't have a horse in this race, am a Cleveland fan, but sort of rooting for the underdog Cardinals to pull it out). It's been a pretty exciting Series, after all. Well, little did I know what would happen! So the Cards tied it up in dramatic fashion in their 9th and I was hooked the rest of the way. You can't just leave a game like that. I couldn't believe what I was watching...after a rather sloppy and painful game to watch through the first 6 innings, the last few innings were unreal! Historic, in fact, and that's probably not hyperbole there. Reminded me of the 1986 Mets in Game 6, but StL coming back from not one, but TWO, 2-run deficits when facing elimination in their last at-bat tops that one. OK, I know that's all not really relevant to mid-Atlantic weather, but anyhow! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Climo! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 honestly the GFS is a disaster I am nervous that this will not ammount to very much even up here...that should tell people something down in the Baltimore Washington area... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 GFS Torch.....next "Next!" will most likely and realistically be in about...oh...December I'd guess. Yeah, I'd love to see some snow in late October, would be cool and interesting. But it's just that...late OCTOBER folks! Disappointing to see the trends but not like we normally look for this stuff right now. Now, if it were winter, it would truly suck big time, I agree! And for Oct. 29 (tomorrow), I'd hardly call upper 30s or low 40s a "torch". A little perspective here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 I am nervous that this will not ammount to very much even up here...that should tell people something down in the Baltimore Washington area... Almost everyone should have been nervous the whole time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 A little bit of an improved consensus would have been nice by now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 that was pretty clear after the euro came out despite what profiles showed...... Euro shows 14" for me...I dont buy that at all... I went with 5" just because the NAM/Euro/UK all show 10" of snow in this area...so I hedged my bet but I have been thinking if this turns into a 37 degree heavy rain it would not surprose me even here. I think I see flakes at some point but I am not as sure the ground ends up white as the local mets or the NWS seem to be for my area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
marked8 Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 I am nervous that this will not ammount to very much even up here...that should tell people something down in the Baltimore Washington area... Prepare the weenie roast, it could get ugly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
iammrben Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 A little bit of an improved consensus would have been nice by now. But there is. Rain with a few pity flakes thrown in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 But there is. Rain with a few pity flakes thrown in. Yeah, doesn't really inspire much confidence at all Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Almost everyone should have been nervous the whole time. well on the up side, I did not spend a lot of time tracking this all week... really only started to pay attention 0z last night... and 2 its October so it doesn't hurt as bad when the rug gets pulled out. Still wish I had continued to not pay attention instead of watching 3 runs of models moving from a historic 10" snow towards cold rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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