snownut Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 My daughter at VT says it is raining there now with some sleet mixed in at 36. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 My daughter at VT says it is raining there now with some sleet mixed in at 36. we have had sleet here on and off all morning mixed in with the rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Huffwx Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 My daughter at VT says it is raining there now with some sleet mixed in at 36. They've had sleet the past 90 minutes-- firs thought it was just dry air induced, but 90 is pretty long for that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 My daughter at VT says it is raining there now with some sleet mixed in at 36. There are reports of this as far south as areas just north and west of Richmond. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 12z Euro seems quite a bit drier than previous runs. Cut precip by almost 1/2? Haven't had a chance to look and figure out why yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 LWX updated their snowfall map. http://www.erh.noaa.gov/lwx/winterstorm/#image Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 12z Euro seems quite a bit drier than previous runs. Cut precip by almost 1/2? Haven't had a chance to look and figure out why yet. based on my QPF maps, 1.25-1.5 for all of DC/Balt metro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Just looked at the euro snow maps and it appears to snow in Ji's backyard from hour 21-36 with hour 27-30 the best....I think Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 based on my QPF maps, 1.25-1.5 for all of DC/Balt metro Hmmm...seems lower based on Wunderground maps. Only 2 3-hr panels with most of the area in >0.25" precip. 00z had 3 or 4 panels with that much. What was 00z? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Hmmm...seems lower based on Wunderground maps. Only 2 3-hr panels with most of the area in >0.25" precip. 00z had 3 or 4 panels with that much. What was 00z? 1.5-2 for most of DC metro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 15z SREFs not as bullish with QPF... looks like easily 1"+, but the 2" contour from the 09z SREFs is gone (besides a very tiny 2 in S PA) It looks like it still takes the h5 low south of us through RIC then just SE of us I believe Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Although we're getting into the short-range where ensemble forecasting becomes less reliable, the 12z GFS ensembles mean is colder than the Op. 850 0C line seems right on I-95 at hr 24 and 30 for many members. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Nam has initialized... If it holds serve in regards to its 12z run, what would you think Matt? Outlier? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Although we're getting into the short-range where ensemble forecasting becomes less reliable, the 12z GFS ensembles mean is colder than the Op. 850 0C line seems right on I-95 at hr 24 and 30 for many members. Agree, interesting stuff here. http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/gfsensemble/members/12zsnowf048.html overdone of course but much better than the OP, maybe she'll get a little colder at 18z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Warm nose still at 750, but certainly still colder than the other models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Low is a smidge east at hour 18. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 A tick warmer than 12z through 18hr. Vort max hanging back as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Low is a smidge east at hour 18. that 850 low "looks" like it wants to collapse after 18 hrs, but it didn't done what we've needed it to due at 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 850 line at 18 slices SW-NE on 18z NAM through DC or just west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 that 850 low "looks" like it wants to collapse after 18 hrs, but it didn't done what we've needed it to due at 12z It does at 21... its in extreme S MD http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/GemPakTier/MagGemPakImages/nam/20111028/18/nam_namer_021_850_temp_ht.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 850 line at 18 slices SW-NE on 18z NAM through DC or just west And looks to stay there at 21hr... a little more precip then it was from 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 A tick warmer than 12z through 18hr. Vort max hanging back as well. Yeah, unbelievably borderline in DC. From here to Delaware is the 850 track Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 here's the sim radar at 21 hours we used to be under the yellows in prior runs that were snowy for us this is telling http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appcontroller?prevPage=Param&MainPage=indexℑ=&page=Param&cycle=10%2F28%2F2011+18UTC&rname=SFC-LAYER+PARMS&pname=sim_radar&pdesc=&model=NAM&area=NAMER&cat=MODEL+GUIDANCE&fcast=021&areaDesc=North+America+-+US+Canada+and+northern+Mexico&prevArea=NAMER&currKey=model&returnToModel=&imageSize=L Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 The NAM is probably a big hit in Ji land....If the NAM is correct, warning criteria snows will probably verify in the warning areas Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 No... Through 24 hrs manages to shift the 850 0c to the NW... fringes DC and Baltimore... game GFS? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 The 850 line runs right through the heart of Baltimore and DC at 18z....then presumably crashes, but only about .15" of precip after 18z.....my best guess is the 850mb low passes just to the southeast of DC but much closer than we want it....my best guess on the euro is you want to be further west than Marcus/Psu Hoffman....I think the Catoctins/Hagerstown/MRB are in good shape for accumulating snows This is splitting hairs but the Euro taken exactly as is, actually is very good for my exact location. Soundings for Westminster MD show 850s stay well below 0 and surface temps about 33-34 the entire event with 1.41 liquid and that is 7 miles south of me and 250 feet lower in elevation. Probably implies 8-10" of very heavy wet snow. Not my prediction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 No... Through 24 hrs manages to shift the 850 0c to the NW... fringes DC and Baltimore... game GFS? Actually its moving SE through DC at 24 and way east at 27 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RodneyS Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 guidance was not as good back then and I believe there was much more cold air to work with....it way overperformed, but I think there was snow forecast for all of DC metro "The story begins on the evening of November 10, 1987. A cold high pressure for the time of year was to the north of the D.C. area, while a weak 'upper air disturbance' was forecasted to pass to the south of D.C .overnight which would include the D.C. area in the northern fringe of its limited precipitation shield. The term 'upper air disturbance' was years later confirmed by a University of Maryland climatologist to me as being what I had suspected all along: that the meteorologists don’t know what it actually is and that it is 'up in the air' and is indeed a disturbance since it is producing cloudiness or precipitation, hence the term upper air disturbance. The local National Weather Service (NWS) as well as every local news meteorologist including Bob Ryan of channel 4, Sue Palka of channel 5, and Gordon Barnes of channel 9 predicted flurries for the area that night. The fact that the local news meteorologists went with the NWS is of no surprise because they rarely deviated from the others and actually stated what they were thinking, if anything." See http://localnews.col...erans-day-storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 No... Through 24 hrs manages to shift the 850 0c to the NW... fringes DC and Baltimore... game GFS? NAM's been moving west and GFS was the first model to bring it west, so yep, GFS, as of now, looks to score the coup Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Warm nose still at 750, but certainly still colder than the other models. Looks like we might see a period of sleet or sleet mixed with rain prior to any changeover. As you say, it's still a colder run than the other models. Places like frederick would do well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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