yoda Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 New HPC maps are certainly gung-ho for snow accumulations in the LWX area 20-30% chance of 8" or more snow just NW of I-95 corridor... >40 as you reach BR and west 40% chance I-95 and west for 4" or more of snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris87 Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 i want to say this run has pretty minimal or no real snow dc/balt immediate area.. very little qpf on 36 panel. and the 0c line is overhead or just west at 30 (18z). particularly up near balt the 0c backed a good bit (was east of bay or on east edge now over balt or west). you're right not much near the big cities...maybe a quick changeover DC and north, but need to get in far N. MD and PA for anything good... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 i want to say this run has pretty minimal or no real snow dc/balt immediate area.. very little qpf on 36 panel. and the 0c line is overhead or just west at 30 (18z). particularly up near balt the 0c backed a good bit (was east of bay or on east edge now over balt or west). That's good to know, To me it certainly looked warmer at 24 hrs than some of its previous runs. It sound like it is in between the GFS and NAM which is probably a pretty good place to be in. I'm sure glad I'm not a LWX, any warnings that are issued are doubtful but if you don't issue them and the NAM ends up being right you are screwed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris87 Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 That's good to know, To me it certainly looked warmer at 24 hrs than some of its previous runs. It sound like it is in between the GFS and NAM which is probably a pretty good place to be in. I'm sure glad I'm not a LWX, any warnings that are issued are doubtful but if you don't issue them and the NAM ends up being right you are screwed. pretty much a lose/lose forecasting situation.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Euro seems pretty reasonable. GFS and NAM demonstrate the two outlying possibilities. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 850 track is actually a tad east of the NAM, but it is warmer. The snowfall algorithm per wunderground shuts out the Beltway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Euro seems pretty reasonable. GFS and NAM demonstrate the two outlying possibilities. Agreed. I think it will verify slightly more NW of what it's got now but at this point we're just talking about very small changes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 850 track is actually a tad east of the NAM, but it is warmer. The snowfall algorithm per wunderground shuts out the Beltway. Gee and it usually looks too snowy or at least seemed that way to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris87 Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 850 track is actually a tad east of the NAM, but it is warmer. The snowfall algorithm per wunderground shuts out the Beltway. yeah 850 track isn't half bad...just too warm and doesn't get cold enough until most of the moisture is gone for the DCA to BWI Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 The 850 line runs right through the heart of Baltimore and DC at 18z....then presumably crashes, but only about .15" of precip after 18z.....my best guess is the 850mb low passes just to the southeast of DC but much closer than we want it....my best guess on the euro is you want to be further west than Marcus/Psu Hoffman....I think the Catoctins/Hagerstown/MRB are in good shape for accumulating snows Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 The 850 line runs right through the heart of Baltimore and DC at 18z....then presumably crashes, but only about .15" of precip after 18z.....my best guess is the 850mb low passes just to the southeast of DC but much closer than we want it....my best guess on the euro is you want to be further west than Marcus/Psu Hoffman....I think the Catoctins/Hagerstown/MRB are in good shape for accumulating snows That's what I'd guess based on what I've seen of the guidance so far. Still, it's been a fun system to track. I sometimes, however, forget how much froth there is when the models are just coming in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 The 850 line runs right through the heart of Baltimore and DC at 18z....then presumably crashes, but only about .15" of precip after 18z.....my best guess is the 850mb low passes just to the southeast of DC but much closer than we want it....my best guess on the euro is you want to be further west than Marcus/Psu Hoffman....I think the Catoctins/Hagerstown/MRB are in good shape for accumulating snows The ideal track according to the old Younkin/Goree stuff was 90 nm northwest of the 850 track assuming the 850 low is tracking northeastward so your guess for where the good stuff would fall sounds right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Zwyts needs to become a pro meteorologist Like I said - right on the money This is a bit early for us to get accum snows Look out west and north though - I feel sorry for those poor bastards with 11 inches of heavy wet snow on fully leaved trees right onto homes, cars, and powerlines. We're not missin' a thing... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 That's what I'd guess based on what I've seen of the guidance so far. Still, it's been a fun system to track. I sometimes, however, forget how much froth there is when the models are just coming in. I think the euro suggests a changeover from west to east, but to pinpoint who gets 1"+ and who gets just a light dusting on the cartops is too difficult....If I end up staying IMBY, I think my expectation is to see some mix then changeover, perhaps enough to whiten the cartops, but probably not much more....someone like Ji is too tough to call....hopefully the Leesburg guys get enough dynamics before the precip shuts off to get a period of moderate to heavy snow and perhaps enough to post some pics to the board and make us all jealous Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wvaspartan Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Warning were just posted ...Loudon/Frederick and West bound Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 All watches went to warnings except for Howard/Montgomery/Harford/Carroll/N Baltimore (those 5 counties still under Winter Storm Watch) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 NAM and ECMWF surface low tracks are extremely similar. The NAM seems to be just 2-3 degrees colder aloft when it matters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
arlwx Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGENATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC231 PM EDT FRI OCT 28 2011MDZ003-501-502-VAZ027>031-WVZ050>053-055-501>504-290245-/O.UPG.KLWX.WS.A.0006.111029T0400Z-111029T2200Z//O.NEW.KLWX.WS.W.0005.111029T0400Z-111029T2200Z/WASHINGTON-EXTREME WESTERN ALLEGANY-CENTRAL AND EASTERN ALLEGANY-SHENANDOAH-FREDERICK VA-PAGE-WARREN-CLARKE-HAMPSHIRE-MORGAN-BERKELEY-JEFFERSON-HARDY-WESTERN GRANT-EASTERN GRANT-WESTERN MINERAL-EASTERN MINERAL-INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...HAGERSTOWN...FROSTBURG...CUMBERLAND...WINCHESTER...FRONT ROYAL...MARTINSBURG...CHARLES TOWN...MOOREFIELD...BAYARD...MOUNT STORM...PETERSBURG...ELK GARDEN...KEYSER...FORT ASHBY231 PM EDT FRI OCT 28 2011...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 PMEDT SATURDAY...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON HASISSUED A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROMMIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 PM EDT SATURDAY. THE WINTER STORM WATCH ISNO LONGER IN EFFECT.* PRECIPITATION TYPE...SNOW* ACCUMULATIONS...4 TO 8 INCHES OF SNOW.* TIMING...A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW WILL OVERSPREAD THE POTOMAC HIGHLAND AND NORTHERN SHENANDOAH VALLEY THIS EVENING...AND CHANGE OVER TO SNOW TONIGHT. THE HEAVIEST SNOW WILL FALL FROM THE PREDAWN HOURS SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THE ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL END BY MID AFTERNOON.* IMPACTS...HEAVY WET SNOW WILL LIKELY ACCUMULATE ON TREES. WITH FOLIAGE STILL ON TREES...THE SNOW MAY LEAD TO BROKEN TREE LIMBS AND POWER OUTAGES. HAZARDOUS TRAVEL ON SNOW-COVERED ROADS IS ALSO POSSIBLE.* TEMPERATURES...IN THE MID 30S.* WINDS...NORTH 5 TO 10 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...A WINTER STORM WARNING MEANS SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF SNOW AREEXPECTED OR OCCURRING. STRONG WINDS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE. THIS WILLMAKE TRAVEL VERY HAZARDOUS OR IMPOSSIBLE.&&$$URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGENATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC231 PM EDT FRI OCT 28 2011MDZ004-290245-/O.UPG.KLWX.WS.A.0006.111029T1000Z-111029T2200Z//O.NEW.KLWX.WS.W.0005.111029T0400Z-111029T2200Z/FREDERICK MD-INCLUDING THE CITY OF...FREDERICK231 PM EDT FRI OCT 28 2011...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 PMEDT SATURDAY...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON HASISSUED A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROMMIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 PM EDT SATURDAY. THE WINTER STORM WATCH ISNO LONGER IN EFFECT.* PRECIPITATION TYPE...SNOW.* ACCUMULATIONS...4 TO 8 INCHES OF SNOW.* TIMING...RAIN WILL OVERSPREAD FREDERICK COUNTY THIS EVENING...AND CHANGE OVER TO SNOW TONIGHT. THE HEAVIEST SNOW WILL FALL FROM THE PREDAWN HOURS SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THE ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL END BY MID AFTERNOON.* IMPACTS...HEAVY WET SNOW WILL LIKELY ACCUMULATE ON TREES. WITH FOLIAGE STILL ON TREES...THE SNOW MAY LEAD TO BROKEN TREE LIMBS AND POWER OUTAGES. HAZARDOUS TRAVEL ON SNOW-COVERED ROADS IS ALSO POSSIBLE.* TEMPERATURES...IN THE MID 30S.* WINDS...NORTHEAST 5 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...A WINTER STORM WARNING MEANS SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF SNOW AREEXPECTED OR OCCURRING. STRONG WINDS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE. THIS WILLMAKE TRAVEL VERY HAZARDOUS OR IMPOSSIBLE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Shenendoah Valley and Potomac Highlands 4-8... BR area 3-6 in the warnings Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 NAM and ECMWF surface low tracks are extremely similar. The NAM seems to be just 2-3 degrees colder aloft when it matters. It will be interesting to see how this plays out, I vaguely recall that the euro used to have about a 1 degree warm bias but that was back a couple of years ago. I have no idea about it now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 The ideal track according to the old Younkin/Goree stuff was 90 nm northwest of the 850 track assuming the 850 low is tracking northeastward so your guess for where the good stuff would fall sounds right. IF I head up 270, I am hoping being at 1500' will compensate and be enough to get 3-5" before it shuts down....If we go and are still seeing rain/mangled mix at 1-2pm, I think everyone is in trouble.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 NWS goes with 4-8 for anybody west of the Catoctins. A little bullish I think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongRanger Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Perhaps no one remembers, but were the 24-hour lead forecasts for Veteran's Day 1987 similar to what we're now seeing for this event? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Shenendoah Valley and Potomac Highlands 4-8... BR area 3-6 in the warnings between 9am and Noon is a pretty important time as we see how much warm air punches in at the mid and lower levels and how far west it gets....anyone who can remain snow mid to late morning tomorrow is going to get thumped.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Perhaps no one remembers, but were the 24-hour lead forecasts for Veteran's Day 1987 similar to what we're now seeing for this event? guidance was not as good back then and I believe there was much more cold air to work with....it way overperformed, but I think there was snow forecast for all of DC metro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 NWS goes with 4-8 for anybody west of the Catoctins. A little bullish I think. The big totals will have to come on the earlier side when the surface low is still well to our southeast....I don't think anyone is getting big snow if they can't get good WAA snows Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Final map... Localized areas of greater than 12 inches are possible in eastern PA and northern NJ. The northern VA/MD/WV mountains could squeeze out 8-12 inches in higher elevations. I went with a solution similar to the 12z Euro, which is kind of a blend of the 12z GFS and NAM. This is perfect for me, since once we get this close to the event I find that a near-even blend of the GFS and NAM solutions works pretty well most of the time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TradeWinds Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 NWS goes with 4-8 for anybody west of the Catoctins. A little bullish I think. For my area (Frederick), I think it's safe to say the higher ends are reserved for the high elevations but agree that I wouldn't be surprised to see the city with less than 4". 1-3" would be my call. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 For my area (Frederick), I think it's safe to say the higher ends are reserved for the high elevations but agree that I wouldn't be surprised to see the city with less than 4". 1-3" would be my call. where you are elevation could make a huge difference.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 people in the eastern/southern 1/3 of the warning areas should have very flexible expectations Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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