SN_Lover Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 I'm not arguing about melting. I'm just saying that it can be 75 degrees the day before a storm and moderate+ rates with air temps in the mid 30's will stick pretty much within the hour. I"m not splitting hairs with ratios and melting and all that. Just stating it will accumulate. That is the biggest argument we get into every year. Air temp is the most important. It can overcome surface temps very quickly. I had frost on my roof and had to scrape a car off this morning. The surface of the ground can respond almost as quickly. But yes, above freezing ground will affect ratios. No arguing that. I'm just tires of hearing people say it won't stick because of warm ground. Heavy snow will stick right away. How long it stays around afterwards is mostly up to the air temp. I never said a location would not get accumulation. "It may "stick" but radiation being emitted from the ground will cause melting of an unknown magnitude from beneath". This is going to be "mashed potato" snow... Even if you do get the rates enough to start sticking and accumulating, the snow is still going to be melting underneath. If you stuck a shovel in it the bottom 1" would be mush yielding ratios of like 6:1 or 8:1. The problem comes when even you clear the snow off the left over "mush" is going to freeze over the next night.. and the next.. @ Bob Chill I'm saying the snow accumulation ratios would get effected, because of radiation being emitted from the ground. You might get accumulation but a UNKNOWN amount of snow will get lost until ground temperatures reach at or below 32F. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Probably extra cautious. 4 inches from this storm will cause far more damage and disruption than 6 inches in a Jan or Feb storm, IMO This. LWS criteria for Winter Storm Watch includes "Enough ice accumulation to cause damage to trees or powerlines." True, we're not talking about ice in this case, but if we're talking about a heavy snow, with leaves still on trees, then the effects-based element of this criteria could be met by this storm, if not the precise causal mechanism. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wvaspartan Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 State College has gone all Winter Storm Warnings across their area. Looks like the WSWatch areas in teh Sterling Market will mostly go Warned as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 State College has gone all Winter Storm Warnings across their area. Looks like the WSWatch areas in teh Sterling Market will mostly go Warned as well. in pa it's kind of a no brainer based on the mid/upper level tracks. lwx has to be kind of nervous many spots if they need to pull the trigger this afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 in pa it's kind of a no brainer based on the mid/upper level tracks. lwx has to be kind of nervous most spots if they need to pull the trigger this afternoon. I would think they go warnings in the Apps and maybe the border counties of carroll and frederick in MD at 330... hold off till later for everyone else Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 in pa it's kind of a no brainer based on the mid/upper level tracks. lwx has to be kind of nervous many spots if they need to pull the trigger this afternoon. I'd imagine they will wait until the Euro comes in before doing anything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wvaspartan Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Yeah I think LWX probably will go warned for all the Northern Counties in the WSW and West of Loudon. Thinking Loudon, Mont, Howard are going to get WWAs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 in pa it's kind of a no brainer based on the mid/upper level tracks. lwx has to be kind of nervous many spots if they need to pull the trigger this afternoon. Euro has to be the kicker for them today based on the earlier runs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 I'd imagine they will wait until the Euro comes in before doing anything. i doubt they're waiting for it specifically but they have an afternoon package normally so that would be a typical time to issue Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathercoins Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Yeah I think LWX probably will go warned for all the Northern Counties in the WSW and West of Loudon. Thinking Loudon, Mont, Howard are going to get WWAs Major cities and immediate areas should see a WWA as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 i doubt they're waiting for it specifically but they have an afternoon package normally so that would be a typical time to issue True, sorry.. I didn't mean they were waiting specifically on the Euro, just after that... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Major cities and immediate areas should see a WWA as well. I dunno.. that would likley be issued tomorrow morning if it was Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 been too busy to check so sorry if its been mentioned, but that precip in TN/WV is definitely N of where the models had it at this time I'm thinking that may be playing into the GFS scenario but then paranoid is my middle name when it comes to snow around here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Even if you guys in the City and S/E of the city dont see any snow. It's not going to be a long drive to see some. Come out to our area. I am sure the local restaurants would love to see you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathercoins Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Justin Berk claims on his fb page that there is a WWA for anywhere in MD north of Annapolis and a warning in PA. Not sure where he's getting this from. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 euro looks a touch warmer through 30 at 850.. not huge but the 0c line backed tens of miles west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 been too busy to check so sorry if its been mentioned, but that precip in TN/WV is definitely N of where the models had it at this time I'm thinking that may be playing into the GFS scenario but then paranoid is my middle name when it comes to snow around here precip pattern on radar matches well with UKMET also and that still is in the colder camp so not sure current obs mean much in that regard. That said, I think I side with the GFS camp because the H5 track on this sucks on just about all guidance now, even for where I am along the MD/PA border. Usually the surface resolves to match the upper levels more often then the other way around. This is why last winter events that looked good at the surface would constantly get worse as the time approached to match the crappy H5 setup. Often times there seems to be a delay between the correction at H5 and the correction at the surface. Hope I am wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 track is pretty similar to 0z... tough to tell on 500 features on maps i have but it looks a bit north. still 1"+ qpf across all lwx east of mtns. not sure i can say much about snow lines.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris87 Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 euro looks a touch warmer through 30 at 850.. not huge but the 0c line backed tens of miles west so no GFS blow torch? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 so no GFS blow torch? no.. dc is pretty much on 0c line till it pulls out after 30. at 30 it runs from dc to balt basically. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 euro looks a touch warmer through 30 at 850.. not huge but the 0c line backed tens of miles west I have the 0 line at 24 basically paralleling the BR... is that what you have? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris87 Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 no.. dc is pretty much on 0c line till it pulls out after 30. at 30 it runs from dc to balt basically. thanks sounds pretty close to the 0z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 I have the 0 line at 24 basically paralleling the BR... is that what you have? sorta.. looks se of it for most part. kind of a cho to dca line Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 no.. dc is pretty much on 0c line till it pulls out after 30. at 30 it runs from dc to balt basically. If I may ask...does that 0c line run SW to NE along I95? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 no.. dc is pretty much on 0c line till it pulls out after 30. at 30 it runs from dc to balt basically. Where is the 85ow low? Sounds like no snow until 18Z at the very least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 If I may ask...does that 0c line run SW to NE along I95? more or less. i think it generally implies what many public places are going with. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Where is the 85ow low? Sounds like no snow until 18Z at the very least. gotta wait for wunderground i think.. i dont have 850 maps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 gotta wait for wunderground i think.. i dont have 850 maps At least you have intermediate times. Hard to tell much from the PSu site except that the new england crowd will be hyped. A amjor storm for them in October. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Can you use 850 vort for track of 850 low? or are they different? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 At least you have intermediate times. Hard to tell much from the PSu site except that the new england crowd will be hyped. A amjor storm for them in October. i want to say this run has pretty minimal or no real snow dc/balt immediate area.. very little qpf on 36 panel. and the 0c line is overhead or just west at 30 (18z). particularly up near balt the 0c backed a good bit (was east of bay or on east edge now over balt or west). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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