chris87 Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Heavy heavy non snow it's an equal opportunity screw job... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 GFS profiles are even warmer than 6z, but the low has moved a east by a good 30-50mi. Vort is essentially unchanged. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Taking climo into consideration GFS would be a no show for DC/Baltimore east not even a flake Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 it's an equal opportunity screw job... as much as even im sick saying it climo can't be totally denied. if i was in s pa i'd be happy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ger Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 With all do respect to the NWS-- I tend to believe they run behind a tad when a storm is on us. Big government issue?? HAHA When model data is creeping warmer and west-- I'd hedge there rather than a late issue snow map. As the main organ of meteorology in this country, and the best respected, the NWS has got to be sensitive to hype or the perception of hype. One overhyped or ill measured incident and they're hearing from a (currently unsympathetic) congress. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted October 28, 2011 Author Share Posted October 28, 2011 With the NAM warming up a bit with every run, I'd give the GFS some credence here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Not where we want it Gut punch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 GFS would dry slot as well it looks like, right when the profiles get cold. Ride DT's old Double-E rule (Euro and NAM (old Eta) agree)? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 With the NAM warming up a bit with every run, I'd give the GFS some credence here. The GFS is a better model overall unfortunately. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ger Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 GFS v. Euro: do either have biases that might lend skepticism to their respective solutions given the time of year, pattern, etc.? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 The track of the H5 goes NE, NNE, E, NE. Avg it out? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 GFS profiles are even warmer than 6z, but the low has moved a east by a good 30-50mi. Vort is essentially unchanged. at 500 it really had stronger energy rounding out the bottom of the trough, which seems to have enabled the storm to amp up earlier at 850.. which brings in the nice warm surge off the ocean.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ger Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 The GFS is a better model overall unfortunately. But there is the Euro in relative lockstep with the NAM . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 i swear these things almost always follow the same pattern.. 2-3 days out they lock in on something special then they yank it out into the end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 With the NAM warming up a bit with every run, I'd give the GFS some credence here. lol...It is a better model and the runs have made more sense.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 The GFS is a better model overall unfortunately. Euro is better than the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 i swear these things almost always follow the same pattern.. 2-3 days out they lock in on something special then they yank it out into the end. and posters follow the same pattern as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 GFS soundings are above freezing until about 825mb at 18z. By 21z, they're mostly sub-freezing, but still low-mid 30s at the surface, so probably mixed flurries/drizzle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Euro is better than the GFS. i've been completely consistent in my thoughts for the most part. a euro/gfs blend is almost always a good call. but the gfs makes plenty of sense. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 So, the weenies to the ledge... UKMET/EURO decides if we have to leap.. This was never an IMBY storm...if you don't understand that, you don't belong here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 i swear these things almost always follow the same pattern.. 2-3 days out they lock in on something special then they yank it out into the end. some of the american models last year would waver the day before the storm only to come back the next run or the run after.. but I was also up north at that time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 This was never an IMBY storm...if you don't understand that, you don't belong here let's wait on the JMA before freaking out... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 some of the american models last year would waver the day before the storm only to come back the next run or the run after.. but I was also up north at that time. i spent a decade of winters up there and over half of one down here. sne is a snow magnet comparatively. you have to throw out all your rules from up there for the most part. sure a storm or two here and there will go against the grain but most dont. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 This was never an IMBY storm...if you don't understand that, you don't belong here Possibilities for a light snowfall was on the table today (and still are until euro/uk) for a large part of this sub forum... I am naturally interested if that happens (as should be others).. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 let's wait on the JMA before freaking out... Well I'm holding on until i see the ever faithful CRAS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 let's wait on the JMA before freaking out... How can someone freak out unless they had locked into expectations in the 1st place?....the only people who should potentially be "upset" are those in places well north and west of DC and/or with elevation..and that is only if they end up getting really screwed....even with the sick NAM runs, anyone sensible was still calling for T-1" for most of DC metro.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterymix Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 i've been completely consistent in my thoughts for the most part. a euro/gfs blend is almost always a good call. but the gfs makes plenty of sense. For the Balto/DC metro area: Nothing more than a non-event until after 3 pm Saturday when... The 21Z GFS shows the 0C line at 850 reaching the western Chesapeake Bay and when that happens, the changeover will be nearly complete... ...simply put, rain for most in the morning and then flakes mixing in around or after noon and then all snow around 4 pm but not accummulating until sunset and then the precip. shuts off by about 10 pm. So...about three accummulating hours except for outlying north and west. Climo tells us the mid-level moisture shuts off as the entire column cools this early in the season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 GFS soundings are above freezing until about 825mb at 18z. By 21z, they're mostly sub-freezing, but still low-mid 30s at the surface, so probably mixed flurries/drizzle. It actually looks more drizzly than snowy as it looks dry above minus 8C. That may be too warm to activate any nuclei Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Possibilities for a light snowfall was on the table today (and still are until euro/uk) for a large part of this sub forum... I am naturally interested if that happens (as should be others).. where you live you should have never been invested one way or the other, other than hoping for the real possibility of seeing some flakes....and that may still happen....this was never an IMBY storm.....this was a storm to follow out of interest in weather if you live in somewhat close in burbs below say 600' Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 How can someone freak out unless they had locked into expectations in the 1st place?....the only people who should potentially be "upset" are those in places well north and west of DC and/or with elevation..and that is only if they end up getting really screwed....even with the sick NAM runs, anyone sensible was still calling for T-1" for most of DC metro.... no argument there. super rare events that never happen are super rare for a reason. i still have no real clue what will happen but im generally planning on wet ground as i have been imby at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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