usedtobe Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Someone asked whether there looked to be instability on the NAM soundings. It looks that way at 15Z above 700 though it's also starting to dry out. I'm not sure whether that is because the nam convective scheme and adjustment to it is going (I think it is) or if it is just drying (also possible). Here's the sounding. Maybe Daryl or Chris can comment about it. The second sounding is 15Z near Braddock Heights Maryland. Look at how close to freezing the bottom 1000 feet or so are, also note how the sounding bends sharply to the left above 700 mb. If if's not snowing at that time it's close. All the sounding are from TwisterData.com http://www.twisterdata.com/index.php?sounding.lat=39.4044&sounding.lon=-77.5580&sndclick=y&prog=forecast&model=NAM&grid=221&model_yyyy=2011&model_mm=10&model_dd=28&model_init_hh=12&fhour=27¶meter=TMPF&level=2&unit=M_ABOVE_GROUND&maximize=n&mode=singlemap&sounding=y&output=image&view=large&archive=false Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wvaspartan Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Sterling just upped Jefferson County, WV to 3-5 Inches on Saturday with ALL rain tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Sterling just upped Jefferson County, WV to 3-5 Inches on Saturday with ALL rain tonight. Does Sterling have the 12z gfs model info yet? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TradeWinds Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Sterling just upped Jefferson County, WV to 3-5 Inches on Saturday with ALL rain tonight. Just upped Frederick from 1-2" to 2-4" as well.I still think the Catoctins do very well for this storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Don Cherry's Jacket Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 North of 2 inches of QPF for immediate metro won't be without its issues, either, even if we get nothing more than a single symbolic flake. Should be a wild day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
marked8 Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 12z RGEM at 24 hrs -- http://www.weatherof...ast/592_100.gif Again, with lots of QPF showing up as well, following the 12z NAM/09z SREFs lead on that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 This looks like an LWX updated snow map. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 FWIW... Nothing particularly newsworthy in here other than the continued uncertainty over where the rain/snow line falls for metro areas... STORM SUMMARY NUMBER 02 FOR AUTUMN MID-ATLANTIC TO NORTHEAST U.S.MAJOR WINTER STORMNWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD1100 AM EDT FRI OCT 28 2011 ...A RARE OCTOBER WINTER STORM FOR THE MID-ATLANTIC ANDNORTHEASTERN STATES TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. HEAVY WETSNOW...COMBINED WITH NEARLY FULLY LEAFED TREES...COULD LEAD TOEXTENSIVE DOWNED TREES AND POWER OUTAGES... WINTER STORM WATCHES HAVE BEEN ISSUED FROM THE BORDER REGIONS OFWEST VIRGINIA AND VIRGINIA...NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THEMID-ATLANTIC REGION AND INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. FOR A DETAILED GRAPHICAL DEPICTION OF THE LATESTWATCHES...WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES...PLEASE SEE WWW.WEATHER.GOVAT 1000 AM EDT...A COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM JUST OFF THE SOUTHCAROLINA COAST WESTWARD TO LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER THESOUTHERN GULF COAST STATES. UNSEASONABLY COLD AIR CONTINUES TOPOUR INTO THE NORTHEASTERN U.S. AT THE SAME TIME...DEEP TROPICALMOISTURE IS POISED TO LIFT NORTHWARD TONIGHT ALONG THE EAST COASTAND FUEL AN EXPANDING AREA OF HEAVY RAIN AND SNOW.THE SURFACE LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF COAST REGION IS FORECAST TOLIFT NORTHEASTWARD TO CENTRAL GEORGIA BY FRIDAY EVENING...AND TOTHE NORTH CAROLINA COAST BY SATURDAY MORNING. LIGHT PRECIPITATIONHAS SPREAD INTO SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA AND WILL CONTINUE LIFTINGNORTHEASTWARD. MOST OF THIS PRECIPITATION WILL FALL IN THE FORM OFRAIN...WITH SNOW IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS DURING FRIDAY. THEPRECIPITATION WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD AND HEAVIER...FRIDAYNIGHT...WITH RAIN SPREADING ACROSS MOST OF THE MID-ATLANTIC ANDSNOW DEVELOPING ACROSS MUCH OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE CENTRALAPPALACHIANS. BY SATURDAY MORNING...AS COLDER AIR WORKS INTO THEREGION...THE SNOW WILL SPREAD TO LOWER ELEVATIONS...WITHACCUMULATING SNOWS POSSIBLE ALONG AND NORTHWEST OF THE I-95CORRIDOR...FROM WASHINGTON D.C. TO NEW YORK CITY. SNOW WILL SPREADINTO NEW ENGLAND LATE SATURDAY. TOTAL SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 8INCHES ARE FORECAST FROM THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF VIRGINIA AND WESTVIRGINIA NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA AND INTOSOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THE HEAVIEST SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OF 8 TO 10INCHES ARE FORECAST TO FALL IN A BAND FROM EXTREME NORTHERNMARYLAND NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH NORTHERN NEW JERSEY AND INTOWESTERN MASSACHUSETTS. ISOLATED AMOUNTS IN EXCESS OF A FOOT AREPOSSIBLE OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA.LIGHTER SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE POSSIBLE FOR THE MAJOR CITIES OFTHE MID-ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST...INCLUDING WASHINGTOND.C...BALTIMORE...PHILADELPHIA...NEW YORK CITY...AND BOSTON. SOMEUNCERTAINTY REMAINS AS TO THE EXACT TRACK OF THE SURFACELOW...WHICH WILL DETERMINE EXACTLY WHERE THE HEAVIEST SNOW FALLS.HEAVY WET SNOWS ACCUMULATING ON TREES THAT HAVE NOT YET LOSTLEAVES MAY LEAD TO DOWNED TREES AND POWER OUTAGES. PLEASE REFER TOPRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER FORECAST OFFICE FOR DETAILSSPECIFIC TO YOUR AREATHE NEXT STORM SUMMARY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE HYDROMETEOROLOGICALPREDICTION CENTER AT 500 PM EDT. PLEASE REFER TO YOUR LOCALNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THISEVENT.ECKERT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 This looks like an LWX updated snow map. Likey Likey. Looks like they are adding more to the snow for BWI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Does Sterling have the 12z gfs model info yet? No. You can check on the model status here: http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/prodstat/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Keep sending it south my friend. it doesnt work that way around here usually... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 15z for me LWX text forecast for me upped from 1-2" at 5 am to 4-6" now. unbelievable. That's a nice sounding. At the least you should have some big heavy snowflakes coming down if the model is correct. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 I wish we could see hr 30 on the 12z RGEM but hr 36 does look interesting - http://www.weatherof...ast/593_100.gif Seems like we get at least a decent amount of hours for snow to fall Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 it doesnt work that way around here usually... Can only hope, trend is our friend in these metro areas. The GFS will be very interesting. If that comes east at 12z, weenie bombs away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 No. You can check on the model status here: http://www.nco.ncep....wprod/prodstat/ Thanks, but why the 11AM update? Why not wait for the 12z data? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Can only hope, trend is our friend in these metro areas. The GFS will be very interesting. If that comes east at 12z, weenie bombs away. how so? it seems like everything including the nam is warmer around dc/balt the last few runs. your bombs might have been prematurely dropped. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 how so? it seems like everything including the nam is warmer around dc/balt the last few runs. your bombs might have been prematurely dropped. That's what worries me about Jason's snow map. He's pretty conservative but I could see this being anything from the 06Z GFS almost all rain storm to the 12Z nam. It does seem like when the 500 vort creeps north all the other things like temp and getting snow get worse. The slightly warmer look to the NAM was not good especially after the 06Z GFS looked so crummy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 That's what worries me about Jason's snow map. He's pretty conservative but I could see this being anything from the 06Z GFS almost all rain storm to the 12Z nam. It does seem like when the 500 vort creeps north all the other things like temp and getting snow get worse. The slightly warmer look to the NAM was not good especially after the 06Z GFS looked so crummy. we always have tricky storms it seems but this is probably the trickiest i remember at least with the small scale details that make a big difference. the bust potential either way is decent though i think a climo-like map will have a higher likelihood of winning than otherwise. agree on the 500 vort. usually once it's in the position it's in we don't get big snow in D.C., at least not since i've been here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 how so? it seems like everything including the nam is warmer around dc/balt the last few runs. your bombs might have been prematurely dropped. I'm more or less thrilled with the potential 2-5" snowfall, and seeing the NWS map creep every so slightly south to put be between 2-4" is a victory in my book. Anything more would be bonus. We are right on the razors edge temperature wise. Areas just north and west of BWI (as you know) could barely hang on and rip paste while the inner harbor is mixed/rain. There is that sneaky 700mb warm layer modeled now, but all in all, it seems to be a game time type of thing for at least the NW suburbs of DCA/BWI. (Slightly better chances for BWI it appears on sref probs). It really hasn't gotten earth shakingly warmer on the NAM and the EURO has more or less held serve. So my terms for weenie bombs away are met even if we can steal a 2-5" snowfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 It's torching at 24 hrs...pretty much the same as 6z up though...may be getting it's act together a little sooner? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Hmm, 850 low looks west on the GFS @ 24 hrs. No 700 nose, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Huffwx Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 I'm more or less thrilled with the potential 2-5" snowfall, and seeing the NWS map creep every so slightly south to put be between 2-4" is a victory in my book. Anything more would be bonus. We are right on the razors edge temperature wise. Areas just north and west of BWI (as you know) could barely hang on and rip paste while the inner harbor is mixed/rain. There is that sneaky 700mb warm layer modeled now, but all in all, it seems to be a game time type of thing for at least the NW suburbs of DCA/BWI. (Slightly better chances for BWI it appears on sref probs). It really hasn't gotten earth shakingly warmer on the NAM and the EURO has more or less held serve. So my terms for weenie bombs away are met even if we can steal a 2-5" snowfall. With all do respect to the NWS-- I tend to believe they run behind a tad when a storm is on us. Big government issue?? HAHA When model data is creeping warmer and west-- I'd hedge there rather than a late issue snow map. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BaltimoreWxGuy Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 GFS still has a lot of WAA like 6z...GFS vs NAM. GFS wins Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris87 Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 huzzzah +5 at 850 at 15z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ger Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 I just want to see the ground white and the trees too. I think that will happen but I certainly don't expect a plowable snow at least not in Capitol Hill-- unless the models shift colder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted October 28, 2011 Author Share Posted October 28, 2011 GFS is the weenie killer. Toasty at 850, even out west a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 huzzzah +5 at 850 at 15z Heavy heavy non snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 GFS is a disaster overall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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