MD Snow Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 It's torching at 24 hrs...pretty much the same as 6z up though...may be getting it's act together a little sooner? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Huffwx Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 I'm more or less thrilled with the potential 2-5" snowfall, and seeing the NWS map creep every so slightly south to put be between 2-4" is a victory in my book. Anything more would be bonus. We are right on the razors edge temperature wise. Areas just north and west of BWI (as you know) could barely hang on and rip paste while the inner harbor is mixed/rain. There is that sneaky 700mb warm layer modeled now, but all in all, it seems to be a game time type of thing for at least the NW suburbs of DCA/BWI. (Slightly better chances for BWI it appears on sref probs). It really hasn't gotten earth shakingly warmer on the NAM and the EURO has more or less held serve. So my terms for weenie bombs away are met even if we can steal a 2-5" snowfall. With all do respect to the NWS-- I tend to believe they run behind a tad when a storm is on us. Big government issue?? HAHA When model data is creeping warmer and west-- I'd hedge there rather than a late issue snow map. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Hmm, 850 low looks west on the GFS @ 24 hrs. No 700 nose, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BaltimoreWxGuy Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 GFS still has a lot of WAA like 6z...GFS vs NAM. GFS wins Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris87 Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 huzzzah +5 at 850 at 15z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ger Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 I just want to see the ground white and the trees too. I think that will happen but I certainly don't expect a plowable snow at least not in Capitol Hill-- unless the models shift colder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted October 28, 2011 Author Share Posted October 28, 2011 GFS is the weenie killer. Toasty at 850, even out west a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 huzzzah +5 at 850 at 15z Heavy heavy non snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 GFS is a disaster overall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris87 Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Heavy heavy non snow it's an equal opportunity screw job... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 GFS profiles are even warmer than 6z, but the low has moved a east by a good 30-50mi. Vort is essentially unchanged. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Taking climo into consideration GFS would be a no show for DC/Baltimore east not even a flake Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 it's an equal opportunity screw job... as much as even im sick saying it climo can't be totally denied. if i was in s pa i'd be happy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ger Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 With all do respect to the NWS-- I tend to believe they run behind a tad when a storm is on us. Big government issue?? HAHA When model data is creeping warmer and west-- I'd hedge there rather than a late issue snow map. As the main organ of meteorology in this country, and the best respected, the NWS has got to be sensitive to hype or the perception of hype. One overhyped or ill measured incident and they're hearing from a (currently unsympathetic) congress. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted October 28, 2011 Author Share Posted October 28, 2011 With the NAM warming up a bit with every run, I'd give the GFS some credence here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Not where we want it Gut punch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 GFS would dry slot as well it looks like, right when the profiles get cold. Ride DT's old Double-E rule (Euro and NAM (old Eta) agree)? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 With the NAM warming up a bit with every run, I'd give the GFS some credence here. The GFS is a better model overall unfortunately. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ger Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 GFS v. Euro: do either have biases that might lend skepticism to their respective solutions given the time of year, pattern, etc.? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 The track of the H5 goes NE, NNE, E, NE. Avg it out? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 GFS profiles are even warmer than 6z, but the low has moved a east by a good 30-50mi. Vort is essentially unchanged. at 500 it really had stronger energy rounding out the bottom of the trough, which seems to have enabled the storm to amp up earlier at 850.. which brings in the nice warm surge off the ocean.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ger Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 The GFS is a better model overall unfortunately. But there is the Euro in relative lockstep with the NAM . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 i swear these things almost always follow the same pattern.. 2-3 days out they lock in on something special then they yank it out into the end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 The GFS is a better model overall unfortunately. Euro is better than the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 GFS soundings are above freezing until about 825mb at 18z. By 21z, they're mostly sub-freezing, but still low-mid 30s at the surface, so probably mixed flurries/drizzle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Euro is better than the GFS. i've been completely consistent in my thoughts for the most part. a euro/gfs blend is almost always a good call. but the gfs makes plenty of sense. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 i swear these things almost always follow the same pattern.. 2-3 days out they lock in on something special then they yank it out into the end. some of the american models last year would waver the day before the storm only to come back the next run or the run after.. but I was also up north at that time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 This was never an IMBY storm...if you don't understand that, you don't belong here let's wait on the JMA before freaking out... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 some of the american models last year would waver the day before the storm only to come back the next run or the run after.. but I was also up north at that time. i spent a decade of winters up there and over half of one down here. sne is a snow magnet comparatively. you have to throw out all your rules from up there for the most part. sure a storm or two here and there will go against the grain but most dont. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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