yoda Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Thought would be more in Metro The delay in changover Chris87 mentions affects it... still its 4-5" just NW of I-95 corridor... and 4" in DCA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 the changeover in the I-95 corridor is actually delayed this run by a warm layer around 700 hPa....the low level temps (850 and below) support changeover closer to 12z... That would explain my previous post.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 the changeover in the I-95 corridor is actually delayed this run by a warm layer around 700 hPa....the low level temps (850 and below) support changeover closer to 12z... Yep. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 the changeover in the I-95 corridor is actually delayed this run by a warm layer around 700 hPa....the low level temps (850 and below) support changeover closer to 12z... Could that not be overcome by the intense rates the h7 maps are showing with their 10-15 UVVs? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 At least half of this is rain most likely... but thats a whole lot of QPF that the 12z NAM is printing out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris87 Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Could that not be overcome by the intense rates the h7 maps are showing with their 10-15 UVVs? I would rather see the vort go south of us instead of right over us... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 I would rather see the vort go south of us instead of right over us... Yes, the h5 vort does at hr 33... it went into SW VA 27, C VA (near RIC) at 30, the over us or slightly SE of DCA at 33 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Yes, the h5 vort does at hr 33... it went into SW VA 27, C VA (near RIC) at 30, the over us or slightly SE of DCA at 33 All we really need is the trough to dig a bit more, and we're good with the vort, which I suspect would eliminate the warm nose at 700, in tandem with the velocities shown. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 I would rather see the vort go south of us instead of right over us... That is the thing i have been watching. Not exactly the best track if it goes NNW through VA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 i still feel ike the nam surface is fooling us but who knows anymore Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Wes should like this. N and W still look to be the place to be, but even DCA gets in on the fun The surface temps at 15Z is 35 and change on the NAM and the 700mb temp is like minus 0.6. The above freezing level extends to 950 mb and then it's below freezing. Looks like a snow marginal snow sounding for DC with temps still in the mid 30s at 18Z. IAD looked like they would be snow by 15Z or so based on the soundings I looked at. (the Plymouth ones). As Chris has noted. this is a low confidence forecast no matter where you are forecasting for as it would take very minor changes to the profiles to have them be almost all rain like the GFS or have an extended period of snow like last night's NAM. I'd like to see the GFS waffle back to a more nam like solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 i still feel ike the nam surface is fooling us but who knows anymore I think it was Wes that said yesterday he preferred the NAM for LL temps rather than the GFS which I thought was interesting. So if he prefers the NAM, and the EURO is similar, you can put two and two together. (Again, not sure if it was Wes or not but I know it was a red tag) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 i still feel ike the nam surface is fooling us but who knows anymore It could be... but for the past few runs its been banging the drum for good snows Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 That is the thing i have been watching. Not exactly the best track if it goes NNW through VA Yeo, I'd like it clearly south of then east of us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Vort looking nice on wv loop: http://www.weather.gov/sat_loop.php?image=wv&hours=24 Getting its act together. I wish the track on the nam was further SE though. Game of inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 I think it was Wes that said yesterday he preferred the NAM for LL temps rather than the GFS which I thought was interesting. So if he prefers the NAM, and the EURO is similar, you can put two and two together. (Again, not sure if it was Wes or not but I know it was a red tag) I said that with the caveat about having the other features like the 500 vort and 850 mb low tracks beign the same. If they are different, I'd probably go with the GFS. If they are almost identical I'd go with the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 I said that with the caveat about having the other features like the 500 vort and 850 mb low tracks beign the same. If they are different, I'd probably go with the GFS. If they are almost identical I'd go with the NAM. Thanks for clarifying... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 I think it was Wes that said yesterday he preferred the NAM for LL temps rather than the GFS which I thought was interesting. So if he prefers the NAM, and the EURO is similar, you can put two and two together. (Again, not sure if it was Wes or not but I know it was a red tag) I know what he said, that's not quite it. I know people want the coldest scenario here too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 I said that with the caveat about having the other features like the 500 vort and 850 mb low tracks beign the same. If they are different, I'd probably go with the GFS. If they are almost identical I'd go with the NAM. I know you were pointing to the earlier NAM outputs about them showing some instability. Are we still seeing that with the 12Z? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Yes, the h5 vort does at hr 33... it went into SW VA 27, C VA (near RIC) at 30, the over us or slightly SE of DCA at 33 Looks like the NAM is down by the KY, TN, NC, VA border region at 24, then shoots up over Harrisonburg by 30, then right over Philly at 36. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Along the MD border n of Baltimore over the PHL should do really well, look for tree damage and power outages there Our western guys could have the same problem if the nam is right. The GFS would say no. If the NAM vort track was a little more south I'd have more confidence. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TradeWinds Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 splitting hairs at this point but interesting to note that the NWS really split up the zones for the winter storm watch. For Hagerstown & Winchester they mention rain/snow mix in the valleys with potential for 5"+ above 1500 feet. For Frederick & Westminster they state say rain changing to snow with 5"+ potential and no mention of elevation. Seems inconsistent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Along the MD border n of Baltimore over the PHL should do really well, look for tree damage and power outages there Our western guys could have the same problem if the nam is right. The GFS would say no. If the NAM vort track was a little more south I'd have more confidence. what would you forecast for Leesburg right now? 1-3 inches? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 what would you forecast for Leesburg right now? 1-3 inches? midday facebook alert time? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 midday facebook alert time? im not making any accumulation forecasts although my gut says 4-8 for Leesburg Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 im not making any accumulation forecasts although my gut says 4-8 for Leesburg i didnt even know there was a winter storm watch out there till just now... nice Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 For those wondering why the concern about the 500 vort track, years ago Younkin and Goree did a study on heavy snows during winter and found that on average the heavy snow band ended up being about 150 nm west of the vort track. That doesn't mean there weren't exceptions but means that usually the deformation zone sets up on the north side of the vort. When it goes right over you, you tend to dry slot more often. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted October 28, 2011 Author Share Posted October 28, 2011 Looks like the Watch got extended to Loudon County. Apologies if this was already posted Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 i didnt even know there was a winter storm watch out there till just now... nice lolz...who would of figure that would happen 2 weeks ago when the GFS showed a blizzard at 384 18z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 i didnt even know there was a winter storm watch out there till just now... nice Western and NW Loudoun get the love...we just get lumped in with them with these watches.....I think 1-3" is a reasonable call if not aggressive still. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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