mappy Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 can you pull the trigger on storm mode Filter being on is amazing, except when people quote those I have filtered off Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Where do you find those maps? HPC site and then on the side bar click winter weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted October 28, 2011 Author Share Posted October 28, 2011 The SREFS are not warmer at 3z than 21z ( I am checking at 12z and 18z tomorrow) at the surface. If anything they are a little colder. There is a bit of warmer temps at 850 in the DC - Balt corridor at 18z on the latest 3z run compared to the 21z run. So what is Bethesdawx talking about then? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ThePhotoGuy Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 I say take your elevation, and divide by 150, that'll be your storm total Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 HPC site and then on the side bar click winter weather. Thnx. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BethesdaWX Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Nobody is doing this............but biases DO factor in and that's why people are less inclined to accept the RGEM warm solution. Also, the SREF's might have a few members skewing the mean. It's not a single model - it's an ENSEMBLE. I agree they factor in, but that would be easier to say if it were just the canadian models going for the warmer solution. I'm in my freshman year in Atmospheric Science Department at UMD so I still have just a very basic understanding of the models different tendancies and how they operate, but I'm smart enough to know that the SREF is an ensemble Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 I would take those maps FiveAlarm with a HUGE grain of salt... they change hourly almost and are often never right Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 To me the euro also does not look as good despite the wundergorund lollipop snow products. The vort is not as far south as it was and does not have as good a track for the dc Baltimore corridor. The 06Z GFS actually is too warm for snow and then dry slots. The NAM still has snow at DCA by 15Z. That the gfs has gone warmer is troublesome. Now I'm glad I'm not writing a piece today. Going to need lots of wishy washy language even though we are only 24 hours away from the event. Hopefully, the 12z models will converge towards each other again. This is reminding me of some of the potential systems last year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BethesdaWX Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 So what is Bethesdawx talking about then? @ 850mb they're warmer in the Ensemble mean, and since surface will be above freezing most likely, 850mb temps & even below do matter. I think looking at basic QPF maps & surface temps is not the way to go, I just find it hard to see the colder solution verify. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 To me the euro also does not look as good despite the wundergorund lollipop snow products. The vort is not as far south as it was and does not have as good a track for the dc Baltimore corridor. The 06Z GFS actually is too warm for snow and then dry slots. The NAM still has snow at DCA by 15Z. That the gfs has gone warmer is troublesome. Now I'm glad I'm not writing a piece today. Going to need lots of wishy washy language even though we are only 24 hours away from the event. Hopefully, the 12z models will converge towards each other again. This is reminding me of some of the potential systems last year. Wes -- even with the 42 hr map Earthlight gave me earlier in the thread? I thought it looked okay to me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ThePhotoGuy Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 I would take those maps FiveAlarm with a HUGE grain of salt... they change hourly almost and are often never right Yeah, I know. They changed dramatically all the time last year. I was just posting to show how they change and the latest forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 I would take those maps FiveAlarm with a HUGE grain of salt... they change hourly almost and are often never right I've noticed how often they seem to change, so do the POPS. not sure why or how but I tend not to take them too seriously. They drive my wife crazy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Where do you find those maps? http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/SREFPROB_3z/probsnwloop.html#picture Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 I've noticed how often they seem to change, so do the POPS. not sure why or how but I tend not to take them too seriously. They drive my wife crazy. Not even an hour ago, it was less than what is currently being shown. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Wes -- even with the 42 hr map Earthlight gave me earlier in the thread? I thought it looked okay to me I looked at it on the wunderground site and the surface temp at dca looked to be 39 degrees or so through 15Z. The vort also didn't track down near Richmond but looked to me like it was alsmot over us but maybe it's the crappy graphics. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 If I'm not allowed to post this, please delete. This had been asked about, so here it is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 God that map is a load of a la garbage. Wish the offices would hand draw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 If I'm not allowed to post this, please delete. This had been asked about, so here it is. Can you link to the sref page for me... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 To me the euro also does not look as good despite the wundergorund lollipop snow products. The vort is not as far south as it was and does not have as good a track for the dc Baltimore corridor. The 06Z GFS actually is too warm for snow and then dry slots. The NAM still has snow at DCA by 15Z. That the gfs has gone warmer is troublesome. Now I'm glad I'm not writing a piece today. Going to need lots of wishy washy language even though we are only 24 hours away from the event. Hopefully, the 12z models will converge towards each other again. This is reminding me of some of the potential systems last year. the drift north in the models during the last 36-48 hrs. does seem to be a NINA trait Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
marked8 Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Posted on Accuweather: Largest October Snow Events: --Allentown, Pa.: 2.2 inches on Oct. 31, 1925 --Baltimore, Md.: 2.5 inches on Oct. 30, 1925 --Boston, Mass.: 1.1 inches on Oct. 29, 2005 --Hartford, Conn.: 1.7 inches on Oct. 10, 1979 --Philadelphia, Pa.: 2.1 inches on Oct. 10, 1979 --New York City, N.Y. (Central Park): 0.8 of an inch on Oct. 30, 1925 --Washington, D.C.: 2.0 inches on Oct. 31, 1925 Allentown, Pa., and Hartford, Conn., the cities with the best shot at breaking this record, could also record their first-ever 6-inch or more snowstorm in October. Also of note, Central Park in New York City has never recorded an inch or more of snow in October since records started being kept in 1869. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 can you pull the trigger on storm mode Were in trouble when we get a real storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheesyPoofs Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 I've been so out of the loop -- I literally haven't even looked at a model/forecast/anything since Monday -- have barely even been on the board. Now I wake up to a WSW up here for 4-8," WSW's for Northern MD, "Storm Mode," and a nearly 400 post thread on snow potential. What the hell? Btw, say what you will, but I'll take our subforum any day of the week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted October 28, 2011 Author Share Posted October 28, 2011 Were in trouble when we get a real storm Possible, but the guys in NY and NE could use the help. They may get a real storm out of this. We need to go to HGR! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Can you link to the sref page for me... http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/ewallsref.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 We need to go to HGR! Yes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Were in trouble when we get a real storm ageed reading bethesda and ddweatherman posting back and forth last night made want to go outside and grab my pumpkins and smash them over my snowmaker Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 09z SREFs coming in much wetter... a 2 inch countour has appeared on the 24 hr precip total maps at hr 39 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 2" on the 09z SREFs for the Metro over to Annapolis and up to Cape May Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Looks like the 09z SREFs takes the h5 vort in to S VA at hr 36 and 39 which would be beneficial for us I believe Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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