marked8 Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Posted on Accuweather: Largest October Snow Events: --Allentown, Pa.: 2.2 inches on Oct. 31, 1925 --Baltimore, Md.: 2.5 inches on Oct. 30, 1925 --Boston, Mass.: 1.1 inches on Oct. 29, 2005 --Hartford, Conn.: 1.7 inches on Oct. 10, 1979 --Philadelphia, Pa.: 2.1 inches on Oct. 10, 1979 --New York City, N.Y. (Central Park): 0.8 of an inch on Oct. 30, 1925 --Washington, D.C.: 2.0 inches on Oct. 31, 1925 Allentown, Pa., and Hartford, Conn., the cities with the best shot at breaking this record, could also record their first-ever 6-inch or more snowstorm in October. Also of note, Central Park in New York City has never recorded an inch or more of snow in October since records started being kept in 1869. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 can you pull the trigger on storm mode Were in trouble when we get a real storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheesyPoofs Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 I've been so out of the loop -- I literally haven't even looked at a model/forecast/anything since Monday -- have barely even been on the board. Now I wake up to a WSW up here for 4-8," WSW's for Northern MD, "Storm Mode," and a nearly 400 post thread on snow potential. What the hell? Btw, say what you will, but I'll take our subforum any day of the week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted October 28, 2011 Author Share Posted October 28, 2011 Were in trouble when we get a real storm Possible, but the guys in NY and NE could use the help. They may get a real storm out of this. We need to go to HGR! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Can you link to the sref page for me... http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/ewallsref.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 We need to go to HGR! Yes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Were in trouble when we get a real storm ageed reading bethesda and ddweatherman posting back and forth last night made want to go outside and grab my pumpkins and smash them over my snowmaker Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 09z SREFs coming in much wetter... a 2 inch countour has appeared on the 24 hr precip total maps at hr 39 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 2" on the 09z SREFs for the Metro over to Annapolis and up to Cape May Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Looks like the 09z SREFs takes the h5 vort in to S VA at hr 36 and 39 which would be beneficial for us I believe Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 November 6-7, 1953: (only 9 days off!) This is the earliest recorded major snowfall (4 or more inches) with 5.9 inches recorded in Baltimore. From our weather records here at Millersville 17" in York, PA and 13.5 in Lancaster Some guy on a mountain top outside of Harrisburg got 30". So Its is possible!... but not likely.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted October 28, 2011 Author Share Posted October 28, 2011 NAM much warmer it looks at initialization. Enjoy your 5post status. Use them wisely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Looks like the 09z SREFs takes the h5 vort in to S VA at hr 36 and 39 That would be a decent track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Looks like the 09z SREFs takes the h5 vort in to S VA at hr 36 and 39 which would be beneficial for us I believe 850 line just parks itself over DC from 12z to 18z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris87 Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 850 line just parks itself over DC from 12z to 18z. 850 line is worthless in an ensemble mean though...need to make sure you don't have any warm/cold members causing bias Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 850 line is worthless in an ensemble mean though...need to make sure you don't have any warm/cold members causing bias Yes, true, the perils of an ensemble . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris87 Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Yes, true, the perils of an ensemble . true, thanks for posting, that's a lot of rainy members Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 I think I counted 11 of the 19 members being in favor of the 850 0c line being over or east of us on the SREF map posted above at 18z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Comparing the 1000-500 thickness maps from the 12z at hr 21 and the 06z at hr 27, it would appear that the NAM is coming in a lil bit warmer (but not by much at all). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 I am stunned that I am tracking a potential 3-6 storm this early in the season. Those of us to the west have a little elevation on our side. But I will believe 3-6 when I see it. A dusting in October? OK. I am down with that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Following along on instantweathermaps.com Through 24hrs (12z), the R/S line in SW to NE through the inner NW DC suburbs. 850s are fine, maybe even -2 at DCA, even at 950 we seem to be below freezing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris87 Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 12z NAM was a bit warmer in the earlier periods in the low levels but DCA to BWI never get above -2C at 850 hPa and by 12z things are close to changing over Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 I really don't know if anyone, especially the mets, put any faith in these maps, but I try to see trends in them. FWIW, heres the new probs map. Edit: BTW, this is better, but it is still a razor edge for the DC-Balt corridor Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 850 location Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 12z NAM seems to be producing more QPF on this run in South Central VA than on the 06z run... or is that the expanse of the QPF field being larger at hr 24? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 I really don't know if anyone, especially the mets, put any faith in these maps, but I try to see trends in them. FWIW, heres the new probs map. I think the key feature of all these maps - whether operational models or probability maps - is the sharp cutoff close to I-95. Based on this, I think it's relatively safe to make forecasts for, say, Winchester VA or Hagerstown MD at this point, the problem is just that a couple of degrees difference could make all the difference in DC/Balt when it comes to bust - and the distance between boom and bust is within the model margins of error. Rather than trying to pin down a number, can't we just leave it at 'slight chance of accumulating snow for I-95 areas, with accumulation likelihood and potential increasing to the west and north'? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Closest the 850 line gets to DC is around 16z, looks like it is turning after that. By 18z-19z it is snowing in DC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 h5 vort very strong entering SW VA at hr 27 -- http://mag.ncep.noaa...500_vort_ht.gif At 30 -- http://mag.ncep.noaa...500_vort_ht.gif Looks like its going to go through South Central VA over RIC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris87 Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Closest the 850 line gets to DC is around 16z, looks like it is turning after that. By 18z-19z it is snowing in DC. Agreed, takes a bit longer to change over than the 6z, but seems to be in line with the ECMWF....great deformation band.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 I think the key feature of all these maps - whether operational models or probability maps - is the sharp cutoff close to I-95. Based on this, I think it's relatively safe to make forecasts for, say, Winchester VA or Hagerstown MD at this point, the problem is just that a couple of degrees difference could make all the difference in DC/Balt when it comes to bust - and the distance between boom and bust is within the model margins of error. Rather than trying to pin down a number, can't we just leave it at 'slight chance of accumulating snow for I-95 areas, with accumulation likelihood and potential increasing to the west and north'? I think you've stated the reason that this is probably a forecasting nightmare for the areas in and around DC. The forecasters face the wrath of an angry public with either forecast (provided its wrong). I do not envy those guys their jobs on this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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